Search found 1569 matches

by Tortoise
Fri Jun 01, 2012 12:21 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: 30 Year Treasury Rate at 2.80%
Replies: 75
Views: 20506

Re: 30 Year Treasury Rate at 2.80%

If adhering to the HBPP, we should not consider max upside and max downside.  That, to me, would be market timing.  Re-balancing to take profits when LTT yields fall and prices rise should be all we need to do. In order for a 25% LTT allocation to hit a 35% rebalancing band, LTTs have to rise in pr...
by Tortoise
Thu May 31, 2012 10:26 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: 30 Year Treasury Rate at 2.80%
Replies: 75
Views: 20506

Re: 30 Year Treasury Rate at 2.80%

MT and Craig have mentioned the increased volatility of LTTs at low yields, which is good in a sense since the PP thrives on volatility, but that's only the bright side. There's also a dark side to low LTT yields: ever-shrinking maximum upside and ever-growing maximum downside. If we assume, for the...
by Tortoise
Wed May 30, 2012 10:45 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The Star Trek economy
Replies: 11
Views: 2785

Re: The Star Trek economy

In 10 or 20 years the games will be so realistic that a large percentage of the population will retreat into digital universes and leave the rest of us to keep the lights on.  If a sufficiently advanced population created robots that could do most real world tasks for us, we could theoretically all...
by Tortoise
Tue May 29, 2012 9:35 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The Star Trek economy
Replies: 11
Views: 2785

Re: The Star Trek economy

But even with replicators, and vast energy stores, and no more greed or self-interest, something that's been bugging me is how they manage to coordinate the production of things like starships and space stations without money. Even if I accept that the project managers have transcended self-interes...
by Tortoise
Fri May 25, 2012 3:45 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Upside volatility and long term bonds
Replies: 59
Views: 11064

Re: Upside volatility and long term bonds

At lower yields, long dated treasury's are likely to be more volatile, and potentially zigzag around in price more wildly than at higher yield levels... Is there a good explanation for that effect, other than based on what has happened in the past? I double-checked this using Yahoo Finance data for...
by Tortoise
Fri May 25, 2012 2:02 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Ishmael
Replies: 13
Views: 2858

Re: Ishmael

* That forced education of kids is primarily done to keep them out of the workforce, and is a big waste of time, because people really only learn what the *want* to learn. I haven't read either book, but the former part of the claim above seems highly unlikely given the specific intentions of the P...
by Tortoise
Wed May 23, 2012 1:19 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Why Facebook?
Replies: 21
Views: 3114

Re: Why Facebook?

I have never used MySpace, but I was an early user of Facebook.  I think what made Facebook successful was its limited access during its early years.  You had to have an e-mail address at one of the approved Universities before you could open a Facebook account.  This gave it a sense of being speci...
by Tortoise
Tue May 22, 2012 1:04 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Facebook
Replies: 33
Views: 7522

Re: Facebook

I also think that Mark Zuckerberg is sort of the polar opposite of someone like Steve Jobs.  Where Jobs was a showman who understood cult of personality and how to leverage it to maximum effect, Zuckerberg just comes across as kind of a lucky punk.  I say that with the understanding that Zuckerberg...
by Tortoise
Tue May 22, 2012 12:32 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Why Facebook?
Replies: 21
Views: 3114

Why Facebook?

This topic has doubtlessly been discussed ad nauseum online, but I was interested in hearing the opinions of the unusually thoughtful and intelligent people who frequent this forum. Why did Facebook succeed whereas its predecessors--previous social networking sites like MySpace and Friendster--faile...
by Tortoise
Sat May 19, 2012 7:17 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Economics 101
Replies: 7
Views: 1914

Re: Economics 101

Finally, the dialogue's conclusion echos a worry I have myself; that the current system requires prudent regulations, but that such things are impossible in the real world due to the nature of politicians. I sometimes feel like MMR is a bit naive in its call for "good government". The cynic in me d...
by Tortoise
Sat May 19, 2012 4:14 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: An Attack on the PP and Craig R
Replies: 38
Views: 10638

Re: An Attack on the PP and Craig R

The author of that blog post seems to be discussing the PermPort as if it were a product being pushed rather than what it really is: a concept. Harry Browne's PermPort as discussed in his writings and on his radio shows was a concept, not a product for sale. The mutual fund PRPFX is a product, and H...
by Tortoise
Fri May 18, 2012 10:12 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: PP cash as emergency fund
Replies: 9
Views: 3657

Re: PP cash as emergency fund

I think that this is just fine (and probably the most convenient thing to do.)  Allowing your cash portion to perform this "double duty" is IMO yet another attractive feature of the portfolio. The "emergency fund" is a good financial practice and it's nice to use a portfolio that has this built rig...