Search found 3177 matches

by ochotona
Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:10 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: THE ALLEGORY OF THE HAWK AND SERPENT
Replies: 23
Views: 5717

Re: THE ALLEGORY OF THE HAWK AND SERPENT

So here is the construction of the 'dragon portfolio' Atermis offers. I am color blind but it looks like ~20% each: - equity-linked -gold -long vol -fixed income -commodity trend So gold seems straight forward. Fixed income would be a diversified bond or dividend paying stock portfolio? What is com...
by ochotona
Wed Apr 29, 2020 8:43 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: World Stock Index instead of TSM in PP, GB
Replies: 21
Views: 1190

Re: World Stock Index instead of TSM in PP, GB

Why has international underperformed. Why do markets keep getting it wrong Turn the question upside-down... why has the S&P 500 outperformed since March 2009? All of the outperformance has come since then. QE, buybacks funded by corporate junk rated and BBB borrowing meant to enrich insiders, the p...
by ochotona
Wed Apr 29, 2020 8:27 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: World Stock Index instead of TSM in PP, GB
Replies: 21
Views: 1190

Re: World Stock Index instead of TSM in PP, GB

International stocks have been dead on the mat with no sign of life for over a decade now. I think it would be unwise to put money into them until they at least show some sign of life. They are currently cheap and underperforming for a reason. Just because something is cheap doesn't mean it has to ...
by ochotona
Wed Apr 29, 2020 8:19 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.
Replies: 71
Views: 3573

Re: I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.

Personally, I think big precipitous portfolio moves with LTTs are a huge mistake. The LTT market is volatile, fickle, and wants to give everyone a good drubbing. Why not... Convert TLT to a real Treasury, and over time just don't roll it. The duration will magically shrink over time. Even better if ...
by ochotona
Mon Apr 27, 2020 11:31 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Xanax please
Replies: 19
Views: 858

Re: Xanax please

Really manly for a President of the United States to be ginning people up for a destruction of the United States, rather than seeking dialog and solutions on how to manage States through the crisis. Just let everything fall over and break. Genius.

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by ochotona
Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:16 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Why Left Supports Lockdown?
Replies: 61
Views: 2380

Re: Why Left Supports Lockdown?

I'm seeing all kinds of fault lines along racial and political lines today. Well, politics and race share big fault lines. Here in Harris County TX, white people are quite loathe to wear face masks. The order came from a young female Hispanic County Judge, Lina Hidalgo. I see way more blacks and his...
by ochotona
Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:05 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Why Left Supports Lockdown?
Replies: 61
Views: 2380

Re: Why Left Supports Lockdown?

I'm not sure I get your point. What IS it about? Are you saying the lockdowns are unnecessary and this is all a political stunt by mayors of large cities? The point is, the opposing party tries to harness the natural frustration of people under lockdown to create voting momentum. But it also create...
by ochotona
Mon Apr 27, 2020 7:44 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Why Left Supports Lockdown?
Replies: 61
Views: 2380

Re: Why Left Supports Lockdown?

The left controls most large cities going into the pandemic. They implemented lockdowns based on the responses from other city leaders around the world. The GOP wants to dig rifts and divides in and amongst Americans so they can hopefully peel off voters for November. You are being played. It isn't ...
by ochotona
Mon Apr 27, 2020 7:38 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Short Corner
Replies: 1
Views: 251

Re: The Short Corner

Other short candidiates EMTY - short commercial retail real estate RWN - short Russell 2000 small caps Both are from Proshares, have done well since beginning of 2020 GRZZX from Leuthold Group has done well. I think it's important to diversity amongst funds and providers in case of a blow-up, and do...
by ochotona
Sun Apr 26, 2020 4:52 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Why Left Supports Lockdown?
Replies: 61
Views: 2380

Re: Why Left Supports Lockdown?

I'm sick of politicians trying to accentuate differences between them and the other party in order to throw red meat to their base. That's what I'm sick of. Climbing on top of dead bodies and/or a dead economy to make a point. We have very few, maybe no good choices. People just want the least harmf...
by ochotona
Sun Apr 26, 2020 4:08 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us
Replies: 826
Views: 23341

Re: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us

Houston / Harris County has "only" 93 total deaths, none today. We seem to have peaked April 10. Case county (in a low testing rate area) is 5729. I think we dodged a bullet. Louisiana has 500+ fatalities. Our advantage is no one comes here for tourism. Seriously. This is the Tourism Virus.
by ochotona
Sun Apr 26, 2020 3:57 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Dragon Portfolio
Replies: 4
Views: 389

Re: Dragon Portfolio

Yes, but you really can't do the dragon portfolio by yourself. You really need to be an accredited investor with access to hedge funds if you want a good long vol and trend fund. Long vol especially has a large cost of carry, so you really need to have a good active fund for this or you're going to...