Search found 1264 matches

by Kbg
Sat Nov 22, 2014 12:04 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 576
Views: 155744

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

This really makes me want to try it out in a VP! However, I worry that all the buying and selling required for the very frequent rebalancing will incur transaction costs that cut the returns down a lot. In a tax deferred account quarterly is a good hack, while annually is almost as good and if you ...
by Kbg
Sat Nov 22, 2014 9:25 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 576
Views: 155744

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

And a follow up to that fantastic last post... :D But kbg, I'm afraid of leverage, everyone says it's bad. Kbg: It is bad when used inappropriately. However, one could do better than a PP by simply using leveraged ETFs at half the weight. A 12.5% allocation to SSO, UBT and DGP = 25% and 7.5% DD over...
by Kbg
Fri Nov 21, 2014 8:59 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 576
Views: 155744

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

Had the opportunity to review the thread from its beginning and there was a lot of discussion about volatility decay. So let's check out almost 4 years of performance using SHY, DGP, UBT, SSO and their 1x counterparts SHY, GLD, TLT and SPY. Since 1/1/11 Annual Rebalance 1x 19.41/-8.90 DD 2x 50.07/-1...
by Kbg
Sun Nov 16, 2014 3:23 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent Portfolio Without Rebalancing
Replies: 28
Views: 5682

Re: Permanent Portfolio Without Rebalancing

If so, it would be cool because you could choose which PP suited you according to your risk tolerance: the low-volatility version of you couldn't even deal with -10% drawdowns, the high-volatility version for those with more intestinal fortitude and very long time horizons, and the standard one for...
by Kbg
Sun Nov 16, 2014 8:32 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 2518
Views: 412144

Re: The GOLD scream room

It sounds like you've been listening to the Boglehead groupies?  Correct you are, sir!  Gold doesn't ever change in real value; only what it is measured against does.  If people demand paper assets more, then gold will go down in nominal price. Don't get me wrong...I am not a gold fan/bug per se, b...
by Kbg
Sun Nov 16, 2014 8:27 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent Portfolio Without Rebalancing
Replies: 28
Views: 5682

Re: Permanent Portfolio Without Rebalancing

This is a great post...I think it amply illustrates that if you stuff a bunch of volatility in a portfolio and rebalance it periodically it's some kind of cool magic. It's also why I have dash of XIV/SVXY in my PP.
by Kbg
Sat Nov 15, 2014 7:03 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent Portfolio Without Rebalancing
Replies: 28
Views: 5682

Re: Permanent Portfolio Without Rebalancing

What is the MaxDD with rebalancing annual and/or bands?
by Kbg
Sat Nov 15, 2014 6:56 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 2518
Views: 412144

Re: The GOLD scream room

Can someone help me out here?  Why do people keep referencing the decade after the legalization of gold again as the ringer that won't be repeated again and therefore gold is not a useful asset? I'm cherry picking here but roughly from March 05 to Oct 11 the gold to stock returns were literally a 10...
by Kbg
Sat Nov 15, 2014 3:47 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 576
Views: 155744

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

Mid 4th quarter update...not sure why the SPY DD is different than posted earlier. A data issue likely. This has not been a good year for volatility or small caps. Just swapping UWM out for SSO bumps up the 2xPP to 13.7/-5.5 DD and the twist to 13.99/-10.75 DD. In any event it has been a good year f...
by Kbg
Wed Nov 12, 2014 6:41 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Asset Allocation & Portfolio Performance
Replies: 1
Views: 1096

Asset Allocation & Portfolio Performance

http://gestaltu.com/2013/10/dynamic-asset-allocation-for-practitioners-part-i-policy-portfolios.html http://mebfaber.com/2013/10/13/asset-allocation-strategies-3/ Two very interesting posts.  The top gets at what works when. The bottom is a comparison of various ports over time. Apologies if any wer...
by Kbg
Tue Nov 11, 2014 9:08 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Asset Volatility Question
Replies: 11
Views: 2352

Re: Asset Volatility Question

Apropos of nothing, I ran some numbers.  These don't really mean anything, but I thought I would calc them just the same. (All numbers current to today - no inflation adjustments) Using 10 year daily data, dividends reinvested (purple verticals) I came up with these numbers: GLD: 9.72% CAGR, 40.52%...
by Kbg
Fri Oct 31, 2014 7:55 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 576
Views: 155744

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

And now for the fun...

2x w/Twist +13.70%
3x w/Twist +19.79%    8)