Search found 148 matches

by ahhrunforthehills
Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:58 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Fed Going Nuclear - Will the PP get radiation poisoning?
Replies: 40
Views: 2925

Re: Fed Going Nuclear - Will the PP get radiation poisoning?

Haha. Well, the Fed is not acting in isolation. The whole world is doing the same thing. The last 12 years we have been stuck in a deflationary spiral. All the liquidity they've supplied was not even enough to average 2% inflation. Eventually the inflation will come back. But when that happens, wil...
by ahhrunforthehills
Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:18 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Fed Going Nuclear - Will the PP get radiation poisoning?
Replies: 40
Views: 2925

Re: Fed Going Nuclear - Will the PP get radiation poisoning?

A couple things. First, if you invest in a foreign asset, and their currency appreciates, your asset appreciates by the currency spread. There is no "hidden tax" here. The underlying foreign asset may appreciate in price by the currency spread, but not in your actual value, no? Let's say that the v...
by ahhrunforthehills
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:31 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Fed Going Nuclear - Will the PP get radiation poisoning?
Replies: 40
Views: 2925

Re: Fed Going Nuclear - Will the PP get radiation poisoning?

A couple things. First, if you invest in a foreign asset, and their currency appreciates, your asset appreciates by the currency spread. There is no "hidden tax" here. The underlying foreign asset may appreciate in price by the currency spread, but not in your actual value, no? Let's say that the v...
by ahhrunforthehills
Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:37 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Fed Going Nuclear - Will the PP get radiation poisoning?
Replies: 40
Views: 2925

Re: Fed Going Nuclear - Will the PP get radiation poisoning?

And if the Treasury Department, at the time of settling up, were to simply say "Not this time. . ." Then what? I suspect that would just print more Federal Reserve Notes to cover their losses. Then without being tied to the Fed, they could print up all the money they wanted for themselves, friends,...
by ahhrunforthehills
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:43 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Fed Going Nuclear - Will the PP get radiation poisoning?
Replies: 40
Views: 2925

Re: Fed Going Nuclear - Will the PP get radiation poisoning?

the Fed is buying Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to the tune of $125 billion PER DAY. It sounds like they are soaking up everything toxic in the investing world on their balance sheet. "Hey pension funds, wanna use some of those dangerous securitized subprime car loans that were ab...
by ahhrunforthehills
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:30 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Fed Going Nuclear - Will the PP get radiation poisoning?
Replies: 40
Views: 2925

Re: Fed Going Nuclear - Will the PP get radiation poisoning?

A couple things. First, if you invest in a foreign asset, and their currency appreciates, your asset appreciates by the currency spread. There is no "hidden tax" here. The underlying foreign asset may appreciate in price by the currency spread, but not in your actual value, no? Let's say that the v...
by ahhrunforthehills
Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:46 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Fed Going Nuclear - Will the PP get radiation poisoning?
Replies: 40
Views: 2925

Fed Going Nuclear - Will the PP get radiation poisoning?

I hate to be doom & gloomish, but... I know many of you (or at least some of you) have read Dalio's Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises (for those that haven't, it is free on Bridgewater's website). Anyway, with every fed announcement I keep thinking about the final stage in the long-term debt...
by ahhrunforthehills
Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:39 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Tax-Loss Harvesting Recommendation (Vanguard Total Stock Index)
Replies: 11
Views: 1623

Tax-Loss Harvesting Recommendation (Vanguard Total Stock Index)

Does anybody have any recommendations for tax loss harvesting Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares (VTSAX)? I am in completely taxable accounts and would love to pick off some of these losses. VTSAX has an expense ratio of 0.04%. I want to stay at Vanguard and stay in a mutual fund ...
by ahhrunforthehills
Tue Mar 17, 2020 3:54 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Powell says no to negative interest rates?
Replies: 5
Views: 631

Powell says no to negative interest rates?

It doesn't sound like the Fed is too interested in negative interest rates: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/15/powell-says-the-fed-doesnt-see-negative-rates-as-appropriate-policy-for-the-united-states.html If this is true... well, all those Long Term Treasuries aren't looking so great anymore since all...
by ahhrunforthehills
Tue Jan 07, 2020 10:51 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Vintage Wine??
Replies: 2
Views: 946

Vintage Wine??

I have come across a couple people lately that think buying/selling vintage wine, despite being not a liquid investment (no-pun), is the future in a world where traditional investments appear less optimistic. At first I just dismissed the idea as obnoxious/pretentious, but after pondering it a bit.....
by ahhrunforthehills
Fri Dec 27, 2019 3:42 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Homelessness on the Rise?
Replies: 37
Views: 2897

Re: Homelessness on the Rise?

- I made a list of my top 5. I basically just went down the list of what is happening with the most dangerous drugs... https://external-preview.redd.it/DGWenU6pSn70oK88xPwTfVvAwW5Hn1LYW41aw4PxYIQ.png?width=960&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=e78792d50e208ceba53dfaca77d790438fae8fed #1 Heroin/Opioids - up 5x ...
by ahhrunforthehills
Sun Nov 10, 2019 6:20 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rate?
Replies: 30
Views: 3550

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rate?

The cape ratio is really a poor indicator of short term moves ....the reality is we have no idea what markets will do . True, hence me saying "hopefully". I think us just having this conversation in this specific forum aligns our common viewpoint of accepting the fact that we cannot predict the fut...