Search found 148 matches

by ahhrunforthehills
Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:42 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Ray Dalio on Bonds
Replies: 84
Views: 1398

Re: Ray Dalio on Bonds

Since I still have a chunk of TLT that's in the red I'm hoping for one last flight-to-safety myself so I can get out. I’m on the other side... I have a chuck of TLT in a taxable account that I hate to pay the built up gains unless I am 1000% sure. Rates could go up, they could go down, but that che...
by ahhrunforthehills
Wed Sep 23, 2020 4:01 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Ray Dalio on Bonds
Replies: 84
Views: 1398

Re: Ray Dalio on Bonds

They just didn’t respond much as one would expect with the sell off in equities .... More fed action buying bonds to lower rates and create liquidity in the market is quite inflationary in the longer term and is being looked at as such. You have a guaranteed loss with a 1.40% yield and the fed sayi...
by ahhrunforthehills
Wed Sep 23, 2020 1:40 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Ray Dalio on Bonds
Replies: 84
Views: 1398

Re: Ray Dalio on Bonds

lately the crashes have been met with margin call selling in treasuries and gold and they fall too as investors sell to cover their equity margin calls . it seems we have a whole different investing world with issues and events harry never imagined I know, right? The world seems just so leveraged u...
by ahhrunforthehills
Wed Sep 23, 2020 11:37 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Ray Dalio on Bonds
Replies: 84
Views: 1398

Re: Ray Dalio on Bonds

Any thoughts on the CBO's forecast/chart? https://www.jsmineset.com The CBO pretty much sums it up in their report: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56598 By the end of 2020, federal debt held by the public is projected to equal 98 percent of GDP. The projected budget deficits would boost federal de...
by ahhrunforthehills
Sun Sep 13, 2020 9:48 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bonds and the PP -- still make sense?
Replies: 59
Views: 2381

Re: Bonds and the PP -- still make sense?

I don’t think I could ever get into real estate now. The government was just way too quick to halt evictions during a downturn without compensation to landlords. Not to mention, if things don’t get better economically, property taxes will probably get nasty. I think the safest approach currently is ...
by ahhrunforthehills
Sun Sep 13, 2020 5:20 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bonds and the PP -- still make sense?
Replies: 59
Views: 2381

Re: Bonds and the PP -- still make sense?

mathjak107 wrote:
Sun Sep 13, 2020 5:08 pm
Big difference though with the bonds .....we hit the ground floor ..it is not just business as usual and rates fall ....this time and this close to zero may very well be the this time is different scenario .....it is a totally different game in my opinion
+1
by ahhrunforthehills
Sun Sep 13, 2020 4:31 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bonds and the PP -- still make sense?
Replies: 59
Views: 2381

Re: Bonds and the PP -- still make sense?

Whether you stick with LTTs or move to cash it doesn't really matter, you're going to do better than the average investor out there. You can say the same thing about buying hurricane insurance if you live in Michigan. But, at a certain point, the cost of the insurance just becomes a silly bet. I am...
by ahhrunforthehills
Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:33 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bonds and the PP -- still make sense?
Replies: 59
Views: 2381

Re: Bonds and the PP -- still make sense?

If you look at short timeframes on the order of days or a few months, I agree. If you look at longer timeframes on the order of a couple of years or more, I think PP assets moving together tend to eventually separate and go their own ways again. I think that using TIME as a factor oversimplifies th...
by ahhrunforthehills
Fri Sep 11, 2020 11:50 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bonds and the PP -- still make sense?
Replies: 59
Views: 2381

Re: Bonds and the PP -- still make sense?

If so, what is it about LTTs yielding close to zero that would imply lower safety (such as higher risk of default or inflation)? LTT getting closer to zero increases the risk of future inflation. Why would it not? Just to clarify, I think default of LTT bonds is obviously EXTREMELY unlikely. Howeve...
by ahhrunforthehills
Fri Sep 11, 2020 4:58 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bonds and the PP -- still make sense?
Replies: 59
Views: 2381

Re: Bonds and the PP -- still make sense?

Can LTT go down? Yes, but there is likely a floor that is VERY close. Once near 0% interest, people will transition to gold. Is that what has happened in countries that have even lower long-term interest rates than those in the U.S.? They've largely transitioned to gold? Other countries do not have...
by ahhrunforthehills
Fri Sep 11, 2020 4:31 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bonds and the PP -- still make sense?
Replies: 59
Views: 2381

Re: Bonds and the PP -- still make sense?

When I try to think all this through... Can LTT go down? Yes, but there is likely a floor that is VERY close. Once near 0% interest, people will transition to gold. Gold is basically a zero coupon treasury without the counter-party risk. Can LTT go up? Not likely since it will put downward pressure ...
by ahhrunforthehills
Wed Sep 09, 2020 3:20 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bonds and the PP -- still make sense?
Replies: 59
Views: 2381

Re: Bonds and the PP -- still make sense?

If LTTs are such a bad deal, why do they get snapped up? Kevin, your last link is interesting, and it basically says that bonds may not outperform cash, and historically they often don't. Well, I have cash on the other half of my barbell. It also says that we should expect an annualized return over...