Search found 689 matches

by BearBones
Sun May 08, 2011 8:16 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Simple volatile uncorrelated VP
Replies: 60
Views: 17628

Re: Simple volatile uncorrelated VP

When all of the money is gone. :-\ It would be a long term bet on the days of economic prosperity being largely behind us (see discussion on population growth and peak oil).
by BearBones
Sun May 08, 2011 7:43 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Exponential growth (again)
Replies: 17
Views: 5226

Re: Exponential growth (again)

The germ theory of medicine, the discovery of antibiotics, the discovery of fossil fuels and the green revolution in agriculture explains a lot of the population growth. Agree, but I'm guessing that most of the population growth has occurred in areas without access to good medicine. And the "green ...
by BearBones
Sun May 08, 2011 7:13 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Simple volatile uncorrelated VP
Replies: 60
Views: 17628

Re: Simple volatile uncorrelated VP

Thanks MT and Gumby. Your chart shows the wild ride with 2 volatile asset classes. My gut tells me that it might be best to have a cash reserve too, perhaps 20-25%, since there could be times when both primary asset classes drop, leaving me with little money to buy at the lows. So something like 40%...
by BearBones
Sat May 07, 2011 7:58 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Exponential growth (again)
Replies: 17
Views: 5226

Exponential growth (again)

It is my belief that the following simple graph holds an inherent truth that most of us prefer to deny. Whether the Earth’s carrying capacity for human beings is 1 billion or 12, it is obvious from this graph that something absolutely fantastic occurred during the past 150 years that led to a profou...
by BearBones
Sat May 07, 2011 6:41 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Simple volatile uncorrelated VP
Replies: 60
Views: 17628

Simple volatile uncorrelated VP

As a small satellite holding, I have a Roth IRA that I would like to set up as a high stakes variable portfolio.  I would like to put together 2-4 asset classes that are highly volatile and roughly uncorrelated. Similar in principle to the HB PP, gains would be captured by rebalancing. For one asset...
by BearBones
Sun May 01, 2011 3:22 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is infinite growth possible??
Replies: 25
Views: 8603

Re: Is infinite growth possible??

The answer is intuitive and implied in your posting, of course. Yet, isn't that what our debt-based economy is based on, particularly fractional reserve banking? While I certainly agree with MT about the timing, for me it is tempting to to estimate the probability of a collapse of our economic syste...
by BearBones
Sun May 01, 2011 7:53 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Source for Daily Gold Price?
Replies: 18
Views: 7358

Re: Source for Daily Gold Price?

this is the reasons they (the bbb) gave for the rating... Accreditation This business is not a BBB Accredited Business. Factors that lowered this business's rating include: Failure to respond to 1 complaint(s) filed against business BBB does not have sufficient background information on this busine...
by BearBones
Sat Apr 30, 2011 6:09 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Source for Daily Gold Price?
Replies: 18
Views: 7358

Re: Source for Daily Gold Price?

dualstow wrote: Now that I've heard good things about Tulving on this forum, I think I'm going to switch to them.
A bit off topic, but before switching to Tulving, look at the BBB rating (F). Anyone not concerned about this?
by BearBones
Sat Apr 23, 2011 7:46 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Terry Coxon
Replies: 7
Views: 2646

Re: Terry Coxon

While such things as an International Asset Protection Trust does seem like overly aggressive overkill for all but the extremely wealthy, I think that several of the ideas in this article are very applicable to members of this forum. Most of us are already preparing for a “street fight,”? even if it...
by BearBones
Sat Apr 16, 2011 6:10 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Discussion of Energy-Related Issues
Replies: 53
Views: 10171

Re: Discussion of Energy-Related Issues

Great thread. Thanks for starting, MT. Here’s my apocalyptic take. My concern is not that alternative sources of energy are possible, but rather whether we may not have the time and resources to develop them before a “perfect storm”? hits, triggered by decreasing flow rates and increasing costs of p...
by BearBones
Mon Nov 22, 2010 9:36 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Why should I buy Treasuries now?
Replies: 46
Views: 16792

Re: Why should I buy Treasuries now?

You folks are amazing! You respond so quickly, and your answers are so consistently grounded in impassivity about future market conditions. Reminds me of asking my father, "Can I have a car?" "No, there is no need for you to own a car at age 18." "But what if I payed for gas?" "No, there is no need ...
by BearBones
Mon Nov 22, 2010 8:33 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Why should I buy Treasuries now?
Replies: 46
Views: 16792

Re: Why should I buy Treasuries now?

Back to the original question, why LT treasuries now.  This question remains my biggest hang-up, as I am sure it is for many. You have provided sound advice about market timing Craig and MediumTex. But, for me, it is not as much a matter of timing as a concern about risk vs. reward, upside vs. downs...
by BearBones
Sun Nov 21, 2010 9:12 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Contrarians for Cash, anyone?
Replies: 6
Views: 3917

Re: Contrarians for Cash, anyone?

Thanks for both of your wise (and consistent) comments. I will admit and clarify that I am already largely in cash (about 70%, largely out of paralysis rather than reason) rather than intending to market time out of other asset classes into cash. I am taking the first step out of such a paralytic st...
by BearBones
Sun Nov 21, 2010 10:01 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Contrarians for Cash, anyone?
Replies: 6
Views: 3917

Contrarians for Cash, anyone?

Like many of you, I hold a VP in addition to the PP. For the PP, I am committed to holding my nose and my breath and investing without regard to market sentiment or market timing. For the VP, I am more speculative and contrarian. I tend to think we are in a unique period in which many assets are ove...
by BearBones
Tue Oct 26, 2010 9:02 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Best Depression-Proof Businesses?
Replies: 16
Views: 6625

Re: Best Depression-Proof Businesses?

A true depression? My parents grew up in a rural farming community during the 1920s and 30s, and they subsequently invested nearly exclusively in small rental properties. "Everyone needs a roof over their head," they would say. What other things do we all need when a large proportion of the populati...
by BearBones
Mon Oct 25, 2010 12:31 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Reporting Overseas Gold? I dont think IRS can require this...
Replies: 17
Views: 8002

Re: Reporting Overseas Gold? I dont think IRS can require this...

Of course, I wonder whether gold (or any other money, including paper money) held overseas stacked and bundled in a safety deposit box could be regarded as an "account" for IRS purposes. I question the same thing. I have combed the internet looking for FBAR reporting of safe deposit boxes (SDB), an...
by BearBones
Mon Oct 04, 2010 9:42 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Advice before deployment
Replies: 1
Views: 2077

Advice before deployment

Thanks many times over to CraigR for creating and administering this site. Thanks as well to Clive, MediumTex and all other contributors for your posts and comments. This is truly an invaluable work of generosity. Thanks in part to this site, I am preparing to take back the management of my own inve...