Search found 689 matches

by BearBones
Tue May 10, 2011 7:18 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: foreign bank account
Replies: 9
Views: 2439

Re: foreign bank account

Depends on where you live and what banks are around, I suppose. Ideally, it would be nice to have the account in the other country. So, if anywhere close to Canada, I'd second MTs idea. Canada has an abundance of natural resources and a very sound banking system. If you had <$10K, it would not have ...
by BearBones
Tue May 10, 2011 5:59 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Exponential growth (again)
Replies: 17
Views: 5226

Re: Exponential growth (again)

All wise words, MT. I have enjoyed this discussion. Thanks to all that have participated.
by BearBones
Tue May 10, 2011 5:54 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Simple volatile uncorrelated VP
Replies: 60
Views: 17627

Re: Simple volatile uncorrelated VP

So... if you take 50% GDX and 50% EDV, starting on Jan 29, 2008, and you rebalance whenever one of the assets becomes twice the value of the other asset....these are the results (including dividends and rebalancing in Nov 2008, May 2009 and Dec 2010): Thanks! Amazing how you whipped this up. But......
by BearBones
Mon May 09, 2011 8:20 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Simple volatile uncorrelated VP
Replies: 60
Views: 17627

Re: Simple volatile uncorrelated VP

As the volatility of GDXJ appears to be substantially greater than EDV, why would you prefer it to GDX in this intriguing variable portfolio idea? Good question for which I do not have an intelligent answer.  I was initially attracted to the junior miners because of their higher upside potential. H...
by BearBones
Mon May 09, 2011 8:03 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Exponential growth (again)
Replies: 17
Views: 5226

Re: Exponential growth (again)

MT, I really enjoyed your last 2 postings, and I agree entirely. A lot of quotable material there, such as the "6,000 year secular bull market." Three questions: 1.  You have basically described a phenomenon of overshoot. Is this from the book you mentioned by William Catton? 2.  You mention that "t...
by BearBones
Mon May 09, 2011 6:02 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Simple volatile uncorrelated VP
Replies: 60
Views: 17627

Re: Simple volatile uncorrelated VP

You can't just choose random assets because some of them have shown negative correlation over one or two decades. Gold and Gold Mining Stocks do extremely well during inflationary conditions and Long Term Treasuries do extremely well during deflationary conditions. It would be difficult to find two...
by BearBones
Mon May 09, 2011 5:43 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Simple volatile uncorrelated VP
Replies: 60
Views: 17627

Re: Simple volatile uncorrelated VP

In order to learn, Why choose specifically GDXJ and EDV? What other assets class are highly volatile and uncorrelated? regards Nothing particularly special about these 2 except that they are volatile, rather uncorrelated, and I was interested in GDXJ. In term of asset classes there are primarily th...
by BearBones
Sun May 08, 2011 6:26 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Simple volatile uncorrelated VP
Replies: 60
Views: 17627

Re: Simple volatile uncorrelated VP

So you would basically treat it with the same respect as your PP.  ie, you believe in the underlying principles and are willing to hold it for a long time (even decades) to see it perform.  Yes. That's what I am planning. Do you think you'll put a fixed dollar amount in all at once, or do you plan ...
by BearBones
Sun May 08, 2011 1:02 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Taxable Account: PRPFX vs. 4 Equal Assets
Replies: 3
Views: 2653

Re: Taxable Account: PRPFX vs. 4 Equal Assets

Debatable, I suppose, if looking exclusively at taxes and there is no tax-deferred option for any of the assets. However, if some of the 4 could be held in a tax-deferred account (e.g. TLT, SHY) and if some of the gold used for rebalancing were held in GTU or PHYS, then things could tip toward holdi...
by BearBones
Sun May 08, 2011 12:27 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Funds
Topic: How much tax do I owe for sale of PRPFX
Replies: 11
Views: 4891

Re: How much tax do I owe for sale of PRPFX

Not to mention the benefits of holding assets more directly. Not a tax benefit, per se, but a benefit that should not be neglected. There could come a time in which "gold in the hand is worth two in the bush."
by BearBones
Sun May 08, 2011 12:21 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Simple volatile uncorrelated VP
Replies: 60
Views: 17627

Re: Simple volatile uncorrelated VP

Please, what am I missing?  After a year all three end up at the same place.  How has the volatility helped? To add to Adams comment, in picking relatively non-corellated assets, it would be the exception rather than the rule that all are up or down at the same time. So EDV and GDXJ are picked beca...
by BearBones
Sun May 08, 2011 12:14 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Simple volatile uncorrelated VP
Replies: 60
Views: 17627

Re: Simple volatile uncorrelated VP

You are way ahead of me, Adam. Thanks for the questions. In theory, I would stay in unless one of the asset classes did not look like it was a good long term bet or a good diversifier. In reality, this would be difficult to predict. I would probably get out of EDV if it looked imminent that the doll...
by BearBones
Sun May 08, 2011 8:16 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Simple volatile uncorrelated VP
Replies: 60
Views: 17627

Re: Simple volatile uncorrelated VP

When all of the money is gone. :-\ It would be a long term bet on the days of economic prosperity being largely behind us (see discussion on population growth and peak oil).
by BearBones
Sun May 08, 2011 7:43 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Exponential growth (again)
Replies: 17
Views: 5226

Re: Exponential growth (again)

The germ theory of medicine, the discovery of antibiotics, the discovery of fossil fuels and the green revolution in agriculture explains a lot of the population growth. Agree, but I'm guessing that most of the population growth has occurred in areas without access to good medicine. And the "green ...
by BearBones
Sun May 08, 2011 7:13 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Simple volatile uncorrelated VP
Replies: 60
Views: 17627

Re: Simple volatile uncorrelated VP

Thanks MT and Gumby. Your chart shows the wild ride with 2 volatile asset classes. My gut tells me that it might be best to have a cash reserve too, perhaps 20-25%, since there could be times when both primary asset classes drop, leaving me with little money to buy at the lows. So something like 40%...
by BearBones
Sat May 07, 2011 7:58 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Exponential growth (again)
Replies: 17
Views: 5226

Exponential growth (again)

It is my belief that the following simple graph holds an inherent truth that most of us prefer to deny. Whether the Earth’s carrying capacity for human beings is 1 billion or 12, it is obvious from this graph that something absolutely fantastic occurred during the past 150 years that led to a profou...
by BearBones
Sat May 07, 2011 6:41 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Simple volatile uncorrelated VP
Replies: 60
Views: 17627

Simple volatile uncorrelated VP

As a small satellite holding, I have a Roth IRA that I would like to set up as a high stakes variable portfolio.  I would like to put together 2-4 asset classes that are highly volatile and roughly uncorrelated. Similar in principle to the HB PP, gains would be captured by rebalancing. For one asset...
by BearBones
Sun May 01, 2011 3:22 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is infinite growth possible??
Replies: 25
Views: 8603

Re: Is infinite growth possible??

The answer is intuitive and implied in your posting, of course. Yet, isn't that what our debt-based economy is based on, particularly fractional reserve banking? While I certainly agree with MT about the timing, for me it is tempting to to estimate the probability of a collapse of our economic syste...
by BearBones
Sun May 01, 2011 7:53 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Source for Daily Gold Price?
Replies: 18
Views: 7358

Re: Source for Daily Gold Price?

this is the reasons they (the bbb) gave for the rating... Accreditation This business is not a BBB Accredited Business. Factors that lowered this business's rating include: Failure to respond to 1 complaint(s) filed against business BBB does not have sufficient background information on this busine...
by BearBones
Sat Apr 30, 2011 6:09 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Source for Daily Gold Price?
Replies: 18
Views: 7358

Re: Source for Daily Gold Price?

dualstow wrote: Now that I've heard good things about Tulving on this forum, I think I'm going to switch to them.
A bit off topic, but before switching to Tulving, look at the BBB rating (F). Anyone not concerned about this?
by BearBones
Sat Apr 23, 2011 7:46 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Terry Coxon
Replies: 7
Views: 2646

Re: Terry Coxon

While such things as an International Asset Protection Trust does seem like overly aggressive overkill for all but the extremely wealthy, I think that several of the ideas in this article are very applicable to members of this forum. Most of us are already preparing for a “street fight,”? even if it...
by BearBones
Sat Apr 16, 2011 6:10 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Discussion of Energy-Related Issues
Replies: 53
Views: 10171

Re: Discussion of Energy-Related Issues

Great thread. Thanks for starting, MT. Here’s my apocalyptic take. My concern is not that alternative sources of energy are possible, but rather whether we may not have the time and resources to develop them before a “perfect storm”? hits, triggered by decreasing flow rates and increasing costs of p...
by BearBones
Mon Nov 22, 2010 9:36 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Why should I buy Treasuries now?
Replies: 46
Views: 16791

Re: Why should I buy Treasuries now?

You folks are amazing! You respond so quickly, and your answers are so consistently grounded in impassivity about future market conditions. Reminds me of asking my father, "Can I have a car?" "No, there is no need for you to own a car at age 18." "But what if I payed for gas?" "No, there is no need ...
by BearBones
Mon Nov 22, 2010 8:33 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Why should I buy Treasuries now?
Replies: 46
Views: 16791

Re: Why should I buy Treasuries now?

Back to the original question, why LT treasuries now.  This question remains my biggest hang-up, as I am sure it is for many. You have provided sound advice about market timing Craig and MediumTex. But, for me, it is not as much a matter of timing as a concern about risk vs. reward, upside vs. downs...
by BearBones
Sun Nov 21, 2010 9:12 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Contrarians for Cash, anyone?
Replies: 6
Views: 3915

Re: Contrarians for Cash, anyone?

Thanks for both of your wise (and consistent) comments. I will admit and clarify that I am already largely in cash (about 70%, largely out of paralysis rather than reason) rather than intending to market time out of other asset classes into cash. I am taking the first step out of such a paralytic st...