Search found 689 matches

by BearBones
Sat Jun 04, 2011 7:16 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Wiki or book for the Permanent Portfolio?
Replies: 22
Views: 5392

Re: Wiki or book for the Permanent Portfolio?

Fantastic idea! This forum is a wonderful asset for exploring ideas, but the real gems get hidden among a lot of mundane discussion. That's why the same questions seem to get posted so many times.
I like the wiki concept for this.
by BearBones
Sat May 28, 2011 2:36 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The 80/20 Rule in Personal Finance
Replies: 31
Views: 8376

Re: The 80/20 Rule in Personal Finance

I feel that your approach is an over-simplification. And with all due respect: It reeks of the resentment of not being more financially successful.  (And I don't mean that as an attack, as I've frequently felt the same way myself, too.) Not really sure of your point, Coffee. I'm 50ish, live in a ni...
by BearBones
Sat May 28, 2011 7:17 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The 80/20 Rule in Personal Finance
Replies: 31
Views: 8376

Re: The 80/20 Rule in Personal Finance

Great topic. Food and data are not far behind home and auto for many people. I am shocked at how many people living on modest incomes carry smart phones with data plans and spend >$10/day on unhealthy lunches that they have to drive to purchase every day. I live in a home that is worth less than my ...
by BearBones
Tue May 17, 2011 5:49 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Mortgage, PP or both?
Replies: 7
Views: 2997

Re: Mortgage, PP or both?

If you are a person who worries about an abrupt dollar collapse, a mortgage about the size of the long term bond and the cash portion of your PP could act as a kind of hedge, since the nominal value of the LB and cash parts could be used to convert nominal mortgage debt into real home equity. How i...
by BearBones
Sun May 15, 2011 3:20 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Mortgage, PP or both?
Replies: 7
Views: 2997

Re: Mortgage, PP or both?

Love the logic! I put a high premium on paying off debt, since this is essentially a risk-free, tax-free, guaranteed return. Even the PP cannot boast those characteristics. Furthermore, even a year's supply of cash will not help much if you lose your job for an extended period of time and the bank o...
by BearBones
Sun May 15, 2011 11:24 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: International Bonds
Replies: 14
Views: 6500

Re: International Bonds

Interesting idea.  What country would you use? Like Clive, I would use index. But, in doing so, I bet that it would be impossible to construct something as safe and non-correlated at the single-country HB PP. For example, couldn't emerging market equities, bonds and currency tank at the same time? ...
by BearBones
Sun May 15, 2011 9:42 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Inflation and the chicken and the egg dilemma
Replies: 14
Views: 3622

Re: Inflation and the chicken and the egg dilemma

This inflation vs deflation argument has been argued on this forum before. Could it be that both sides are right? For that which is financed through debt, particularly non-necessities such as mortgages and autos, there could be deflation because slack was taken out in the last decade of low interest...
by BearBones
Sun May 15, 2011 6:41 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: International Bonds
Replies: 14
Views: 6500

Re: International Bonds

That might have been the case in the past, but there is increasingly an argument that international emerging markets are decoupling from western markets. I am not 100 percent committed to my international exposure as I said earlier because i still don't know if I would have the guts to double down ...
by BearBones
Sun May 15, 2011 6:22 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: How to hold physical gold / silver
Replies: 32
Views: 9877

Re: How to hold physical gold / silver

Just have it sent to me, and I will "fabricate" the coins at a fraction of any price you are quoted!
by BearBones
Sat May 14, 2011 3:47 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: International Bonds
Replies: 14
Views: 6500

Re: International Bonds

In terms of the zigging and zagging I view international exposure as another class that zigs and zags independently of the other traditional 4 assets. I would imagine that it should smooth out the line more and potentially increase returns....especially if we were to get into the issue of economic ...
by BearBones
Sat May 14, 2011 6:48 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: International Bonds
Replies: 14
Views: 6500

Re: International Bonds

I am trying to add about 20 percent Intl exposure to the traditional 4 way PP... I tried to hedge against that with some international stocks, and zero coupon treasuries. I think 20-50% each from the stocks and bonds in the PP. By including international stocks and bonds in the PP, aren't you degra...
by BearBones
Wed May 11, 2011 8:12 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Lawn Care
Replies: 15
Views: 3778

Re: Lawn Care

All lawns are an environmental negative. But hard to have good neighbors in suburbia if you are going to let your lawn follow its natural succession back into a prairie. So, to minimize herbicides, I use a spot sprayer only. Most hardware sprayers are inexpensive and fall apart within a year, but I ...
by BearBones
Tue May 10, 2011 7:18 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: foreign bank account
Replies: 9
Views: 2439

Re: foreign bank account

Depends on where you live and what banks are around, I suppose. Ideally, it would be nice to have the account in the other country. So, if anywhere close to Canada, I'd second MTs idea. Canada has an abundance of natural resources and a very sound banking system. If you had <$10K, it would not have ...
by BearBones
Tue May 10, 2011 5:59 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Exponential growth (again)
Replies: 17
Views: 5226

Re: Exponential growth (again)

All wise words, MT. I have enjoyed this discussion. Thanks to all that have participated.
by BearBones
Tue May 10, 2011 5:54 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Simple volatile uncorrelated VP
Replies: 60
Views: 17628

Re: Simple volatile uncorrelated VP

So... if you take 50% GDX and 50% EDV, starting on Jan 29, 2008, and you rebalance whenever one of the assets becomes twice the value of the other asset....these are the results (including dividends and rebalancing in Nov 2008, May 2009 and Dec 2010): Thanks! Amazing how you whipped this up. But......
by BearBones
Mon May 09, 2011 8:20 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Simple volatile uncorrelated VP
Replies: 60
Views: 17628

Re: Simple volatile uncorrelated VP

As the volatility of GDXJ appears to be substantially greater than EDV, why would you prefer it to GDX in this intriguing variable portfolio idea? Good question for which I do not have an intelligent answer.  I was initially attracted to the junior miners because of their higher upside potential. H...
by BearBones
Mon May 09, 2011 8:03 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Exponential growth (again)
Replies: 17
Views: 5226

Re: Exponential growth (again)

MT, I really enjoyed your last 2 postings, and I agree entirely. A lot of quotable material there, such as the "6,000 year secular bull market." Three questions: 1.  You have basically described a phenomenon of overshoot. Is this from the book you mentioned by William Catton? 2.  You mention that "t...
by BearBones
Mon May 09, 2011 6:02 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Simple volatile uncorrelated VP
Replies: 60
Views: 17628

Re: Simple volatile uncorrelated VP

You can't just choose random assets because some of them have shown negative correlation over one or two decades. Gold and Gold Mining Stocks do extremely well during inflationary conditions and Long Term Treasuries do extremely well during deflationary conditions. It would be difficult to find two...
by BearBones
Mon May 09, 2011 5:43 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Simple volatile uncorrelated VP
Replies: 60
Views: 17628

Re: Simple volatile uncorrelated VP

In order to learn, Why choose specifically GDXJ and EDV? What other assets class are highly volatile and uncorrelated? regards Nothing particularly special about these 2 except that they are volatile, rather uncorrelated, and I was interested in GDXJ. In term of asset classes there are primarily th...
by BearBones
Sun May 08, 2011 6:26 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Simple volatile uncorrelated VP
Replies: 60
Views: 17628

Re: Simple volatile uncorrelated VP

So you would basically treat it with the same respect as your PP.  ie, you believe in the underlying principles and are willing to hold it for a long time (even decades) to see it perform.  Yes. That's what I am planning. Do you think you'll put a fixed dollar amount in all at once, or do you plan ...
by BearBones
Sun May 08, 2011 1:02 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Taxable Account: PRPFX vs. 4 Equal Assets
Replies: 3
Views: 2653

Re: Taxable Account: PRPFX vs. 4 Equal Assets

Debatable, I suppose, if looking exclusively at taxes and there is no tax-deferred option for any of the assets. However, if some of the 4 could be held in a tax-deferred account (e.g. TLT, SHY) and if some of the gold used for rebalancing were held in GTU or PHYS, then things could tip toward holdi...
by BearBones
Sun May 08, 2011 12:27 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Funds
Topic: How much tax do I owe for sale of PRPFX
Replies: 11
Views: 4891

Re: How much tax do I owe for sale of PRPFX

Not to mention the benefits of holding assets more directly. Not a tax benefit, per se, but a benefit that should not be neglected. There could come a time in which "gold in the hand is worth two in the bush."
by BearBones
Sun May 08, 2011 12:21 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Simple volatile uncorrelated VP
Replies: 60
Views: 17628

Re: Simple volatile uncorrelated VP

Please, what am I missing?  After a year all three end up at the same place.  How has the volatility helped? To add to Adams comment, in picking relatively non-corellated assets, it would be the exception rather than the rule that all are up or down at the same time. So EDV and GDXJ are picked beca...
by BearBones
Sun May 08, 2011 12:14 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Simple volatile uncorrelated VP
Replies: 60
Views: 17628

Re: Simple volatile uncorrelated VP

You are way ahead of me, Adam. Thanks for the questions. In theory, I would stay in unless one of the asset classes did not look like it was a good long term bet or a good diversifier. In reality, this would be difficult to predict. I would probably get out of EDV if it looked imminent that the doll...
by BearBones
Sun May 08, 2011 8:16 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Simple volatile uncorrelated VP
Replies: 60
Views: 17628

Re: Simple volatile uncorrelated VP

When all of the money is gone. :-\ It would be a long term bet on the days of economic prosperity being largely behind us (see discussion on population growth and peak oil).