Search found 689 matches

by BearBones
Mon Dec 05, 2011 8:17 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: ChrisMartenson.com
Replies: 160
Views: 23582

Re: ChrisMartenson.com

Can I go out on a limb and guess that this is a hyperinflation and/or high-inflation piece of journalism? Almost. He tries to tie together the "three Es':" Economy, Energy, and the Environment (largely other natural resources). The first is dependent on continued exponential growth while the latter...
by BearBones
Mon Dec 05, 2011 12:55 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: ChrisMartenson.com
Replies: 160
Views: 23582

ChrisMartenson.com

Has anyone followed Chris Martenson's work? The Crash Course is very logically presented and very scary, and it has definitely changed how I invest. I found the following 80 minute presentation most compelling. Be sure to listen to the Q&A session, if skeptical. http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/un...
by BearBones
Mon Dec 05, 2011 10:24 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Wiki Light
Replies: 3
Views: 1352

Wiki Light

OK. The topic of a wiki or book has been discussed at length before on this forum, but to do this well will necessarily take a large commitment and a lot of time. How about this as an alternative (and perhaps a genesis for something more ambitious)? It would be interesting to know what most importan...
by BearBones
Mon Dec 05, 2011 9:44 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: World stock fund for equity portion?
Replies: 19
Views: 7358

Re: World stock fund for equity portion?

Agree. Also agree with all that KevinW has posted on this topic here and in other threads. Read his posts carefully before you do this. We want the 4 components of the PP to be as volatile, uncorrelated, and tied to specific economic conditions as possible. The gains come from the REBALANCING. Addin...
by BearBones
Thu Dec 01, 2011 8:50 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Wiki or book for the Permanent Portfolio?
Replies: 22
Views: 5392

Re: Wiki or book for the Permanent Portfolio?

Another quotable post, MT. That was clever. Don't get me wrong. I love this site. So much so that I had to put it away during the spring because I was spending too much time reading the posts. I began neglecting my kids, inconsistently going to work, forgetting to brush my teeth, and no longer chang...
by BearBones
Mon Nov 28, 2011 10:40 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Wiki or book for the Permanent Portfolio?
Replies: 22
Views: 5392

Re: Wiki or book for the Permanent Portfolio?

I am going to restart this discussion. Two things have happened since the last time i signed on: First, i drifted away from following the discussions on this forum last winter, since I found many to be chatter, and i found that the time invested reading posts on the site was not worth what i was gai...
by BearBones
Sat Jun 11, 2011 6:34 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Dumping US Bonds...
Replies: 23
Views: 8006

Re: Dumping US Bonds...

The U.S. has probably not been any less clumsy than other superpowers in world history.  It's a tough job.  Exactly. That's why they are not superpowers any more... Really think US policies of materialism, dependency on foreign oil, massive debt, overextension of military, and inability to make tou...
by BearBones
Wed Jun 08, 2011 8:21 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Our New Normal?
Replies: 9
Views: 2284

Re: Our New Normal?

Couldn't agree more, MT. The beautiful ending made for a nice NYT letter, but the probability of this is about as low as the executive and legislative branches of our government resolving to reign in entitlements, balance the budget, reform the tax code, and define a rational energy policy, all whil...
by BearBones
Wed Jun 08, 2011 7:57 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Dumping US Bonds...
Replies: 23
Views: 8006

Re: Dumping US Bonds...

China reminds me of a puppy, a bit clumsy, not entirely housebroken and with a tendency to chew its master's slippers when annoyed.  I wonder what kind of dog it will grow into. Like the analogy. But one can also argue that the US has been the clumsy one lately, an aging pit bull that is increasing...
by BearBones
Tue Jun 07, 2011 8:10 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: VTI vs. VTSAX
Replies: 6
Views: 9209

Re: VTI vs. VTSAX

julian wrote: And VTI is better tax wise as their is a loop hole in the tax law regarding capital gain distributions.
Can you explain? I'm curious.
by BearBones
Sun Jun 05, 2011 9:08 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Boycott China..
Replies: 29
Views: 8685

Re: Boycott China..

The idea sounds great, but you will find many things that are not made in the US any more. And that is for a good reason: labor prices are so high here that you could not afford many items if they were. Good luck finding a DVD player that is made exclusively in the States. And if you do, I bet that ...
by BearBones
Sat Jun 04, 2011 9:53 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: VTI vs. VTSAX
Replies: 6
Views: 9209

Re: VTI vs. VTSAX

Other than cost differences, aren't there capital gains differences? My understanding is that many ETFs are more immune to capital gains triggered by others selling off in a market decline. Not sure if this is true with Vanguard though.
by BearBones
Sat Jun 04, 2011 7:16 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Wiki or book for the Permanent Portfolio?
Replies: 22
Views: 5392

Re: Wiki or book for the Permanent Portfolio?

Fantastic idea! This forum is a wonderful asset for exploring ideas, but the real gems get hidden among a lot of mundane discussion. That's why the same questions seem to get posted so many times.
I like the wiki concept for this.
by BearBones
Sat May 28, 2011 2:36 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The 80/20 Rule in Personal Finance
Replies: 31
Views: 8376

Re: The 80/20 Rule in Personal Finance

I feel that your approach is an over-simplification. And with all due respect: It reeks of the resentment of not being more financially successful.  (And I don't mean that as an attack, as I've frequently felt the same way myself, too.) Not really sure of your point, Coffee. I'm 50ish, live in a ni...
by BearBones
Sat May 28, 2011 7:17 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The 80/20 Rule in Personal Finance
Replies: 31
Views: 8376

Re: The 80/20 Rule in Personal Finance

Great topic. Food and data are not far behind home and auto for many people. I am shocked at how many people living on modest incomes carry smart phones with data plans and spend >$10/day on unhealthy lunches that they have to drive to purchase every day. I live in a home that is worth less than my ...
by BearBones
Tue May 17, 2011 5:49 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Mortgage, PP or both?
Replies: 7
Views: 2997

Re: Mortgage, PP or both?

If you are a person who worries about an abrupt dollar collapse, a mortgage about the size of the long term bond and the cash portion of your PP could act as a kind of hedge, since the nominal value of the LB and cash parts could be used to convert nominal mortgage debt into real home equity. How i...
by BearBones
Sun May 15, 2011 3:20 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Mortgage, PP or both?
Replies: 7
Views: 2997

Re: Mortgage, PP or both?

Love the logic! I put a high premium on paying off debt, since this is essentially a risk-free, tax-free, guaranteed return. Even the PP cannot boast those characteristics. Furthermore, even a year's supply of cash will not help much if you lose your job for an extended period of time and the bank o...
by BearBones
Sun May 15, 2011 11:24 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: International Bonds
Replies: 14
Views: 6500

Re: International Bonds

Interesting idea.  What country would you use? Like Clive, I would use index. But, in doing so, I bet that it would be impossible to construct something as safe and non-correlated at the single-country HB PP. For example, couldn't emerging market equities, bonds and currency tank at the same time? ...
by BearBones
Sun May 15, 2011 9:42 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Inflation and the chicken and the egg dilemma
Replies: 14
Views: 3622

Re: Inflation and the chicken and the egg dilemma

This inflation vs deflation argument has been argued on this forum before. Could it be that both sides are right? For that which is financed through debt, particularly non-necessities such as mortgages and autos, there could be deflation because slack was taken out in the last decade of low interest...
by BearBones
Sun May 15, 2011 6:41 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: International Bonds
Replies: 14
Views: 6500

Re: International Bonds

That might have been the case in the past, but there is increasingly an argument that international emerging markets are decoupling from western markets. I am not 100 percent committed to my international exposure as I said earlier because i still don't know if I would have the guts to double down ...
by BearBones
Sun May 15, 2011 6:22 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: How to hold physical gold / silver
Replies: 32
Views: 9875

Re: How to hold physical gold / silver

Just have it sent to me, and I will "fabricate" the coins at a fraction of any price you are quoted!
by BearBones
Sat May 14, 2011 3:47 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: International Bonds
Replies: 14
Views: 6500

Re: International Bonds

In terms of the zigging and zagging I view international exposure as another class that zigs and zags independently of the other traditional 4 assets. I would imagine that it should smooth out the line more and potentially increase returns....especially if we were to get into the issue of economic ...
by BearBones
Sat May 14, 2011 6:48 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: International Bonds
Replies: 14
Views: 6500

Re: International Bonds

I am trying to add about 20 percent Intl exposure to the traditional 4 way PP... I tried to hedge against that with some international stocks, and zero coupon treasuries. I think 20-50% each from the stocks and bonds in the PP. By including international stocks and bonds in the PP, aren't you degra...
by BearBones
Wed May 11, 2011 8:12 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Lawn Care
Replies: 15
Views: 3778

Re: Lawn Care

All lawns are an environmental negative. But hard to have good neighbors in suburbia if you are going to let your lawn follow its natural succession back into a prairie. So, to minimize herbicides, I use a spot sprayer only. Most hardware sprayers are inexpensive and fall apart within a year, but I ...
by BearBones
Tue May 10, 2011 7:18 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: foreign bank account
Replies: 9
Views: 2439

Re: foreign bank account

Depends on where you live and what banks are around, I suppose. Ideally, it would be nice to have the account in the other country. So, if anywhere close to Canada, I'd second MTs idea. Canada has an abundance of natural resources and a very sound banking system. If you had <$10K, it would not have ...