Search found 689 matches

by BearBones
Mon Feb 15, 2016 5:51 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Question for Melveyr
Replies: 95
Views: 20149

Re: Question for Melveyr

Appreciate your quick response, Melveyr. And the comments of others. As you are aware, Tyler has created PortfolioCharts and suggested the Golden Butterfly. I am thinking about the derivation below. Regardless, I assume you would replace the treasuries with intermediate and ditch the gold? And you w...
by BearBones
Sun Feb 14, 2016 1:14 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Question for Melveyr
Replies: 95
Views: 20149

Question for Melveyr

I don't think the PP is a good strategy right now. The PP is only different from BH strategy because it advocates for a bond barbell and gold ownership; neither make sense to me now. Holding an intermediate term bond portfolio instead of the cash/ltt has a higher sharpe ratio and I am very confiden...
by BearBones
Sun Feb 14, 2016 8:21 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Inflation or deflation?
Replies: 1
Views: 851

Inflation or deflation?

If its price has been severely inflated, then this must be one of the cases of hidden inflation that everyone is always whispering about, since given the enormous increase in central bank balance sheets in the last 10 years or so, gold doesn't look severely inflated to me. This is an argument for i...
by BearBones
Sat Feb 13, 2016 2:20 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: ultra low / negative interest rates in Germany
Replies: 103
Views: 23880

Re: ultra low / negative interest rates in Germany

If its price has been severely inflated, then this must be one of the cases of hidden inflation that everyone is always whispering about, since given the enormous increase in central bank balance sheets in the last 10 years or so, gold doesn't look severely inflated to me. Can you explain more? Sur...
by BearBones
Sat Feb 13, 2016 10:34 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Safe withdrawal rate when you have a mortgage?
Replies: 21
Views: 5335

Re: Safe withdrawal rate when you have a mortgage?

I do not think that a mortgage should be compared to the average back tested performance of your entire investment portfolio. Paying off a mortgage is equivalent to a guaranteed and safe investment return of that rate (post tax equivalent). As close as we can get to a guaranteed and safe return is f...
by BearBones
Sat Feb 13, 2016 10:04 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: ultra low / negative interest rates in Germany
Replies: 103
Views: 23880

Re: ultra low / negative interest rates in Germany

Whether or not gold will depreciate, it is these low-yield times that make it easy for me to buy it. After all, the argument often goes that gold "just sits there." If my savings were earning 5%, I'd have to think hard about it, but right now my cash is just sitting there. With savings "earning" ne...
by BearBones
Fri Feb 12, 2016 1:40 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: ultra low / negative interest rates in Germany
Replies: 103
Views: 23880

Re: ultra low / negative interest rates in Germany

As Ben Bernanke noted some time ago (http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/Speeches/2002/20021121/default.htm#fn18), central banks can prevent deflation in any country by printing money. Of course the eventual result of this policy will be the destruction of the currency, but they believe that th...
by BearBones
Thu Feb 11, 2016 7:16 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Maximum Bond Upside
Replies: 266
Views: 77789

Re: Maximum Bond Upside

You are right, cash at -1% is no good.  That is when I will be be turning to the Nickel Plan... Once your basement is full of nickels, you are set... Kyle Bass tried this a few years ago, but back then it made even more sense, since the nickel's melt value was higher than 5 cents; this is no longer...
by BearBones
Wed Feb 10, 2016 8:36 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Maximum Bond Upside
Replies: 266
Views: 77789

Re: Maximum Bond Upside

So pardon if this is totally ignorant. But where is my logic flawed below? So if treasuries are turning negative, doesn't this mean severe deflation? Where else to move the money? Stocks, real estate, gold are all losing value vs the currency. The value of virtually everything you own plummets so ev...
by BearBones
Wed Feb 03, 2016 3:40 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Maximum Bond Upside
Replies: 266
Views: 77789

Re: Maximum Bond Upside

Ah, so STT even worse, so institutions still buy longer term treasuries! Boy I feel stupid. Back when this forum was in its infancy there were such high level discussions of economics and such things. Now feel like many of the newer folks are asking the same questions all over again and things aren'...
by BearBones
Wed Feb 03, 2016 2:13 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Maximum Bond Upside
Replies: 266
Views: 77789

Re: Maximum Bond Upside

Haven't read this thread thoroughly, and may have asked this before. But why ever own a neg yielding bond when you can own cash?
by BearBones
Wed Feb 03, 2016 1:27 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 521
Views: 134021

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

I came up with this variant of the GB, and I like it... Like it too! More of a bogleheads-tilted GB. I've been playing with the charts and am favoring this for an IRA. Not as SHTF/1970s-repeat protection, but seems pretty safe with higher CAGR.                   CAGR    Worst Yr      Longest DD PP ...