Search found 120 matches

by hedgehog
Sat Jun 15, 2013 4:11 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Backtesting for the Optimum HBPP Allocations
Replies: 102
Views: 82326

Re: Backtesting for the Optimum HBPP Allocations

Best is multivariate testing where you not only change one parameter (the 25-25-25-25 allocation) but more than one parameter at the same time including the distribution of the stocks, bonds, cash and metals portfolio and the rebalancing bands or timings as well. All at the same time. This is how it...
by hedgehog
Sat Jun 15, 2013 3:42 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: A suggestion for this forum
Replies: 36
Views: 7604

Re: A suggestion for this forum

My suggestion: automatically reduce the size of charts too large to fit a normal screen - normal pixel width for a full web page is 960 pixels - it is really annoying to scroll for example this thread http://gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/http://77.104.139.218/~gyroscop/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?t=7 horiz...
by hedgehog
Sat Jun 15, 2013 3:34 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Having another PP for a VP but with a 2:1 leverage (using CFDs)?
Replies: 9
Views: 2548

Having another PP for a VP but with a 2:1 leverage (using CFDs)?

First: what's a CFD? Contracts for difference. Google will tell you. If you are a US person you are banned to owning them but otherwise feel free to do so. So my idea is - strictly for your variable portfolio, just live your permanent portfolio alone - to leverage all 4 of your asset classes by 2:1....
by hedgehog
Fri Jun 14, 2013 9:54 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: William J. Bernstein Article: Wild about Harry
Replies: 20
Views: 5564

Re: William J. Bernstein Article: Wild about Harry

Although Warren Buffett's sidekick Charlie Munger has made some pretty stupid comments in recent years, his writings on what he calls (I think) "mental latticeworks" is really fascinating and arises from the whole behavioral finance field, probably before it was even called behavioral finance. Coul...
by hedgehog
Thu Jun 13, 2013 3:35 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: William J. Bernstein Article: Wild about Harry
Replies: 20
Views: 5564

Re: William J. Bernstein Article: Wild about Harry

By full blown course you mean the Yale one I guess. Maybe I don't need that much and at that level but I have found a one hour show on PBS NOVA - Mind Over Money -  http://video.pbs.org/video/1479100777/ Might be a good start. If you have a better idea in a one hour watching/reading time frame pls. ...
by hedgehog
Wed Jun 12, 2013 10:15 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: William J. Bernstein Article: Wild about Harry
Replies: 20
Views: 5564

Re: William J. Bernstein Article: Wild about Harry

Behavioral Finance and Wealth Management: How to Build Optimal Portfolios That Account for Investor Biases by Michael Pompian is said to be a more practical book than Zweig's. Any experience with it? Still, i would prefer some shorter essay or lecture on the topic to begin with. This does not sound...
by hedgehog
Wed Jun 12, 2013 10:02 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: William J. Bernstein Article: Wild about Harry
Replies: 20
Views: 5564

Re: William J. Bernstein Article: Wild about Harry

Yes that would be a good book. Even just spending some time searching the web will show a lot of good papers and articles. A lot of what we think are good financial decisions are really just throwbacks to human evolution in terms of assessing risk, etc. Overconfidence, loss aversion, etc. are all h...
by hedgehog
Wed Jun 12, 2013 9:59 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: William J. Bernstein Article: Wild about Harry
Replies: 20
Views: 5564

Re: William J. Bernstein Article: Wild about Harry

Dieter wrote: Aka, the "Oh how I hate to see no gain" thread... :)
It's long one but in short can you tell how it is that all 4 of the PPs asset classes go down at the same time? I don't know but what's the correlation between them? when all 4 goes down what goes up?
by hedgehog
Wed Jun 12, 2013 3:24 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: William J. Bernstein Article: Wild about Harry
Replies: 20
Views: 5564

Re: William J. Bernstein Article: Wild about Harry

The above is why I think more investors should study behavioral finance and less time watching their portfolios constantly. When you understand how your brain interprets money decisions you can short-circuit the bad behaviors and become a better investor. Like the book - Your Money and Your Brain: ...
by hedgehog
Wed Jun 12, 2013 2:00 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: William J. Bernstein Article: Wild about Harry
Replies: 20
Views: 5564

William J. Bernstein Article: Wild about Harry

You probably have see this: http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/0adhoc/harry.htm
What does he want to say? I couldn't figure it out. the graphs looks interesting, however. Your take?
by hedgehog
Wed Jun 12, 2013 2:51 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Comparing historical returns calculations on Kiszamolo.hu and CrawlingRoad.com
Replies: 1
Views: 1259

Comparing historical returns calculations on Kiszamolo.hu and CrawlingRoad.com

http://kiszamolo.hu/a-negyven-eve-mukodo-titkos-fegyver-a-permanent-allando-portfolio/ It's in Hungarian, just see the graphs Vs. https://web.archive.org/web/20160324133409/http://crawlingroad.com/blog/2008/12/22/permanent-portfolio-historical-returns/ Quite a difference. Just one year difference: 1...