Search found 174 matches

by jason
Wed Mar 09, 2016 1:16 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Staggering World Debt Points toward Crisis
Replies: 63
Views: 12413

Re: Staggering World Debt Points toward Crisis

As all sailors know, it is a bad sign when you suddenly notice rats scurrying around the deck while wearing life vests. Huge and ever-growing national debts, unfunded liabilities rising to the height of the Tower of Babel, ZIRP, NIRP, the dubious effectiveness of additional QE binging, a generalize...
by jason
Fri Mar 04, 2016 11:05 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: PHYS - fund paying taxes for redemptions
Replies: 0
Views: 1065

PHYS - fund paying taxes for redemptions

One of the biggest concerns with PHYS is that when shareholders redeem their shares for physical gold, all the shareholders have to pay taxes on any capital gains the fund had earned from the transaction (the difference in price between the price that PHYS paid for the gold and the value of the shar...
by jason
Thu Mar 03, 2016 1:52 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: TAX-LOST HARVESTING: Worth it for the PP??
Replies: 25
Views: 5641

Re: TAX-LOST HARVESTING: Worth it for the PP??

Isn't there a risk with tax loss harvesting in the event the asset you exchanged then quickly shoots up in price and you need to rebalance? This could force you to either pay short term capital gains (at the ordinary income tax rate) or else delay rebalancing, I would think. So, if you sell your VT...
by jason
Wed Mar 02, 2016 7:25 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: TAX-LOST HARVESTING: Worth it for the PP??
Replies: 25
Views: 5641

Re: TAX-LOST HARVESTING: Worth it for the PP??

Isn't there a risk with tax loss harvesting in the event the asset you exchanged then quickly shoots up in price and you need to rebalance? This could force you to either pay short term capital gains (at the ordinary income tax rate) or else delay rebalancing, I would think. So, if you sell your VTI...
by jason
Tue Mar 01, 2016 10:35 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are gold and bonds very uncorrelated?
Replies: 10
Views: 2162

Are gold and bonds very uncorrelated?

Maybe it's just my imagination, but it seems like most of the time when there is bad economic news, gold and Treasuries move up together while the stock market goes down.  And when there is good economic news (like today), stocks go up and gold and Treasuries go down.  So, this makes me wonder, how ...
by jason
Thu Feb 11, 2016 9:15 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Safe withdrawal rate when you have a mortgage?
Replies: 21
Views: 4393

Re: Safe withdrawal rate when you have a mortgage?

The safe withdrawal rate is calculated from your liquid investments that you can sell 4% of every year to pay the bills.  You can't do that with your house, so it doesn't count.  Your home equity does count towards your net worth, but that's a different measure that is unrelated to SWRs. Just looki...
by jason
Thu Feb 11, 2016 1:32 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Safe withdrawal rate when you have a mortgage?
Replies: 21
Views: 4393

Re: Safe withdrawal rate when you have a mortgage?

Home equity is irrelevant to a retirement calculation because you can't access the value that the home equity represents without selling your house and upending your life. Mortgage payments should be considered expenses, which will therefore require you to sock away $25 per dollar of your mortgage ...
by jason
Wed Feb 10, 2016 3:30 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Safe withdrawal rate when you have a mortgage?
Replies: 21
Views: 4393

Safe withdrawal rate when you have a mortgage?

There seems to be somewhat of a consensus that 4% is the maximum SWR for the PP.  I have a mortgage, so how does that work into the SWR calculation?  If I was renting, I would think my rent payments would count 100% towards the withdrawal rate.  But since I am building equity in my home every time I...
by jason
Mon Feb 01, 2016 9:36 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Variable Portfolio Idea
Replies: 5
Views: 1977

Re: Variable Portfolio Idea

Seems good based on 43 years of history, but with only 10% gold, in the event of a SHTF complete meltdown much worse than 2008 (hasn't happened in the last 43 years), it may not be ideal.  If you read about the economic collapse in Iceland where the long term government bonds ended up flat (after sh...
by jason
Fri Jan 29, 2016 2:19 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How bad, historically, has the last 2 1/2 years been for the PP?
Replies: 21
Views: 5441

Re: How bad, historically, has the last 2 1/2 years been for the PP?

I didn't suffer heavy losses in 2015 thanks to the permanent portfolio. However, it was still a difficult year of investment for me. I am still afraid to get started with my investments again. So far, I have only bought gold and bonds because the stock market has been bearish in Europe and Sweden s...
by jason
Fri Jan 29, 2016 12:35 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Tracking bonds in google spreadsheet or other from CUSIP?
Replies: 8
Views: 4181

Re: Tracking bonds in google spreadsheet or other from CUSIP?

=Index(importxml("http://wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3020-treasury.html","//tr[td='"&D6&"']"),1,4) Where D6 is my cell with the maturity in it. I can't even remember where I got that formula from. Probably fnord. Regarding importing long term Treasury prices into my Google doc spreadsheet, one proble...
by jason
Tue Jan 26, 2016 11:04 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Investing in driverless cars
Replies: 0
Views: 1018

Investing in driverless cars

After doing a little bit of research, the only pure play stock for driverless cars appears to be Mobileye, ticker MBLY.  The stock is apparently at an all-time low right now.  Assuming that driverless cars are going to happen and will be the norm over the next 10 or so years, is this a good company ...