Search found 180 matches

by jason
Wed Apr 13, 2016 4:30 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Hard money lending for the VP?
Replies: 15
Views: 6179

Hard money lending for the VP?

It appears there hasn't been any discussion on this topic in years.  Hard money lending investing is where you, the investor, lend money, typically to a hard money lending company, who in turn lends the money, at a high interest rate, to borrowers for real estate-related loans.  For example, someone...
by jason
Thu Mar 31, 2016 9:30 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Staggering World Debt Points toward Crisis
Replies: 63
Views: 13749

Re: Staggering World Debt Points toward Crisis

I believe I read that, as of late, excess reserves, which are reserves above what banks are required to have, are near record levels. So, this means banks don't want to lend, people don't want to borrow, or some combination of both. Banks don't lend reserves into the economy. How do you know that t...
by jason
Thu Mar 31, 2016 3:57 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Staggering World Debt Points toward Crisis
Replies: 63
Views: 13749

Re: Staggering World Debt Points toward Crisis

The same is true of stocks!  That is, a share of stock is simply a claim on the company's future earnings stream. In October 2014, U.S. Stock market capitalization was $22 trillion ( link ), while GDP was $17.5 trillion ( see page 3 ). I think owning a share of stock is a bit different.  If you own...
by jason
Tue Mar 29, 2016 3:20 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Staggering World Debt Points toward Crisis
Replies: 63
Views: 13749

Re: Staggering World Debt Points toward Crisis

The debt (which backs money now) is actually a claim on future earnings. The same is true of stocks!  That is, a share of stock is simply a claim on the company's future earnings stream. In October 2014, U.S. Stock market capitalization was $22 trillion ( link ), while GDP was $17.5 trillion ( see ...
by jason
Mon Mar 28, 2016 4:28 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Marc Faber portfolio?
Replies: 4
Views: 2856

Re: Marc Faber portfolio?

Here's my interpretation with: 25% total stock market 25% long term treasuries 25% gold 25% reits [img width=500]http://i64.tinypic.com/1yww00.jpg[/img] It's kinda like the PP on steroids. Not bad.  One thing that makes me pause is that once you account for REITs in the total stock market fund an t...
by jason
Sun Mar 27, 2016 11:03 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Marc Faber portfolio?
Replies: 4
Views: 2856

Marc Faber portfolio?

Marc Faber has been saying for a while that he recommends an asset allocation of 25% gold, 25% stocks, 25% bonds (and cash), and 25% real estate.  I don't think he ever says how much cash he holds.  So, this made me wonder if anyone has done a back test of 25% gold, 25% stocks, 25% bonds, and 25% re...
by jason
Fri Mar 18, 2016 4:13 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How do you determine after-tax budget with 4% SWR?
Replies: 18
Views: 3505

Re: How do you determine after-tax budget with 4% SWR?

3% probably is overly conservative (if it's set for tax reasons only).  If you're paying 25% as an overall tax rate, presumably you have income from other sources which would reduce the amount you need to draw from the portfolio. I was puzzling about this as well, and decided to discount my project...
by jason
Fri Mar 18, 2016 12:52 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How do you determine after-tax budget with 4% SWR?
Replies: 18
Views: 3505

Re: How do you determine after-tax budget with 4% SWR?

My approach is to ensure that I never withdraw more than 3% for living expenses - and then just pay whatever taxes come up out of the portfolio cash fund. I was thinking the same thing - that I could just spend 3% out of the 4%, and save the remaining 1% for taxes, but that seems overly conservativ...
by jason
Thu Mar 17, 2016 11:15 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How do you determine after-tax budget with 4% SWR?
Replies: 18
Views: 3505

How do you determine after-tax budget with 4% SWR?

A conservative, safe withdrawal rate for the PP appears to be 4%.  In a taxable account, some taxes may be incurred on the 4% withdrawal.  But it seems very complicated to estimate those taxes.  For example, when cashing out of assets early on, taxes will be minimal because gains have been minimal. ...
by jason
Wed Mar 09, 2016 1:16 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Staggering World Debt Points toward Crisis
Replies: 63
Views: 13749

Re: Staggering World Debt Points toward Crisis

As all sailors know, it is a bad sign when you suddenly notice rats scurrying around the deck while wearing life vests. Huge and ever-growing national debts, unfunded liabilities rising to the height of the Tower of Babel, ZIRP, NIRP, the dubious effectiveness of additional QE binging, a generalize...
by jason
Fri Mar 04, 2016 11:05 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: PHYS - fund paying taxes for redemptions
Replies: 0
Views: 1175

PHYS - fund paying taxes for redemptions

One of the biggest concerns with PHYS is that when shareholders redeem their shares for physical gold, all the shareholders have to pay taxes on any capital gains the fund had earned from the transaction (the difference in price between the price that PHYS paid for the gold and the value of the shar...
by jason
Thu Mar 03, 2016 1:52 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: TAX-LOST HARVESTING: Worth it for the PP??
Replies: 25
Views: 6268

Re: TAX-LOST HARVESTING: Worth it for the PP??

Isn't there a risk with tax loss harvesting in the event the asset you exchanged then quickly shoots up in price and you need to rebalance? This could force you to either pay short term capital gains (at the ordinary income tax rate) or else delay rebalancing, I would think. So, if you sell your VT...