Search found 180 matches

by jason
Tue Dec 05, 2017 12:09 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Re-balance instantly or wait a little while?
Replies: 23
Views: 8441

Re-balance instantly or wait a little while?

My stock market holdings are getting very close to 35% (34.84%) to be exact. Do most people re-balance the second they see it hit 35%? Or should I at least wait to see if it closes at 35%? And maybe wait a few days to see if it stays there or if it was just a fluke? Forgive me if there is already a ...
by jason
Mon Jan 30, 2017 2:02 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: New hedged gold fund
Replies: 0
Views: 1888

New hedged gold fund

This new fund is long gold and is also long US dollar by shorting some non-US currencies.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/30/strong-d ... haven.html
Is there any way to figure out the historical performance/back-test this?
by jason
Wed Dec 21, 2016 12:27 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP in non QE world
Replies: 21
Views: 7435

Re: PP in non QE world

Sophie, you might be right. But there was quite a gold mania at the time. Yes, there was a gold mania in the 70s that lasted many years, but not because of pent up demand. The pent up demand may have had some impact early on, but if you look the historical inflation chart, you see that inflation wa...
by jason
Fri Nov 11, 2016 3:06 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP and the Election
Replies: 13
Views: 6261

Re: PP and the Election

I'm actually down about 6% from my all time high this year. About 1/3rd of my investment gains since I started the PP in June 2013 has been wiped out. My CAGR for the past 40 month period has dropped from a peak of about 5% to 3.3%. It's a bummer, but I don't know what else to invest in that is safe...
by jason
Fri Nov 11, 2016 1:54 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Trump's Effect on the PP
Replies: 91
Views: 34603

Trump's Effect on the PP

Trump's victory is having a profound and unexpected (by me) negative effect on the PP. I was actually expecting the opposite. Is anyone else very worried about this? What are other PPers thinking about this?
by jason
Tue Sep 20, 2016 4:41 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Sovereign Man PP Article: When they say ‘hoarding’ instead of ‘saving’ you know you’re in trouble
Replies: 6
Views: 2796

Re: Sovereign Man PP Article: When they say ‘hoarding’ instead of ‘saving’ you know you’re in trouble

The article is definitely doom porn. But putting that aside, I think the article is going off-topic by talking about physical cash being banned. While that is something that could possibly happen in the future, I don't see how that affects the PP significantly. I don't keep my PP cash in my mattress...
by jason
Wed Aug 24, 2016 12:56 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: What would the PP look like without fiat currency and central banks?
Replies: 19
Views: 6487

Re: What would the PP look like without fiat currency and central banks?

Sorry dude, my read of history indicates the guys with guns always win. If government doesn't matter why are there so many lobbyists? Any thinking person understands government defines the capitalist goal posts and field size. This has never not been true. So back to my initial comment: useless hyp...
by jason
Tue Jul 12, 2016 4:16 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Scott Burns' Co on the PP
Replies: 58
Views: 17987

Re: Scott Burns' Co on the PP

I'm not sure it's really fair to compare the returns of a 60/40 portfolio (without cash) to the PP when cash is yielding around zero. Has anyone run numbers on a 33.3/33.3/33.3 PP without cash (maybe there is an existing thread on this forum about this)? I'm also curious about what the optimal re-b...
by jason
Tue Jul 12, 2016 1:41 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Scott Burns' Co on the PP
Replies: 58
Views: 17987

Re: Scott Burns' Co on the PP

I'm not sure it's really fair to compare the returns of a 60/40 portfolio (without cash) to the PP when cash is yielding around zero. Has anyone run numbers on a 33.3/33.3/33.3 PP without cash (maybe there is an existing thread on this forum about this)? I'm also curious about what the optimal re-ba...
by jason
Fri Jun 10, 2016 12:58 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP with 2x leverage (no 2x funds)
Replies: 28
Views: 8483

Re: PP with 2x leverage (no 2x funds)

Sure, and you could do this with options too, right? How do you think interest rate hikes will be reflected in the expenses of the leveraged ETFs? I can't remember who is running a small options version of PP, but they post an update annually. I personally don't recommend one unless you are doing i...
by jason
Thu Jun 09, 2016 1:40 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP with 2x leverage (no 2x funds)
Replies: 28
Views: 8483

PP with 2x leverage (no 2x funds)

Interactive Brokers has cheap margin loan rates, under 2%. So, based on historical performance, a 2X PP should yield about 2 X 9% = 18%, minus the approximately 2% for the margin loan = 16%. I could start a hedge fund with that type of return :) Obviously, margin has risks. What exactly are the risk...
by jason
Wed Apr 13, 2016 10:14 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Hard money lending for the VP?
Replies: 15
Views: 6144

Re: Hard money lending for the VP?

When I sold my house, I sold it to a flipper - and spent a lot of time talking to him about the economics of his business. I've thought seriously of doing hard money lending - but have not yet done it. These are the things that I would want before I would invest: 1) Part of a small group.  8 or 10 ...