Search found 173 matches

by jason
Tue Jul 12, 2016 4:16 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Scott Burns' Co on the PP
Replies: 58
Views: 16770

Re: Scott Burns' Co on the PP

I'm not sure it's really fair to compare the returns of a 60/40 portfolio (without cash) to the PP when cash is yielding around zero. Has anyone run numbers on a 33.3/33.3/33.3 PP without cash (maybe there is an existing thread on this forum about this)? I'm also curious about what the optimal re-b...
by jason
Tue Jul 12, 2016 1:41 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Scott Burns' Co on the PP
Replies: 58
Views: 16770

Re: Scott Burns' Co on the PP

I'm not sure it's really fair to compare the returns of a 60/40 portfolio (without cash) to the PP when cash is yielding around zero. Has anyone run numbers on a 33.3/33.3/33.3 PP without cash (maybe there is an existing thread on this forum about this)? I'm also curious about what the optimal re-ba...
by jason
Fri Jun 10, 2016 12:58 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP with 2x leverage (no 2x funds)
Replies: 28
Views: 7690

Re: PP with 2x leverage (no 2x funds)

Sure, and you could do this with options too, right? How do you think interest rate hikes will be reflected in the expenses of the leveraged ETFs? I can't remember who is running a small options version of PP, but they post an update annually. I personally don't recommend one unless you are doing i...
by jason
Thu Jun 09, 2016 1:40 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP with 2x leverage (no 2x funds)
Replies: 28
Views: 7690

PP with 2x leverage (no 2x funds)

Interactive Brokers has cheap margin loan rates, under 2%. So, based on historical performance, a 2X PP should yield about 2 X 9% = 18%, minus the approximately 2% for the margin loan = 16%. I could start a hedge fund with that type of return :) Obviously, margin has risks. What exactly are the risk...
by jason
Wed Apr 13, 2016 10:14 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Hard money lending for the VP?
Replies: 15
Views: 5675

Re: Hard money lending for the VP?

When I sold my house, I sold it to a flipper - and spent a lot of time talking to him about the economics of his business. I've thought seriously of doing hard money lending - but have not yet done it. These are the things that I would want before I would invest: 1) Part of a small group.  8 or 10 ...
by jason
Wed Apr 13, 2016 4:30 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Hard money lending for the VP?
Replies: 15
Views: 5675

Hard money lending for the VP?

It appears there hasn't been any discussion on this topic in years.  Hard money lending investing is where you, the investor, lend money, typically to a hard money lending company, who in turn lends the money, at a high interest rate, to borrowers for real estate-related loans.  For example, someone...
by jason
Thu Mar 31, 2016 9:30 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Staggering World Debt Points toward Crisis
Replies: 63
Views: 12644

Re: Staggering World Debt Points toward Crisis

I believe I read that, as of late, excess reserves, which are reserves above what banks are required to have, are near record levels. So, this means banks don't want to lend, people don't want to borrow, or some combination of both. Banks don't lend reserves into the economy. How do you know that t...
by jason
Thu Mar 31, 2016 3:57 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Staggering World Debt Points toward Crisis
Replies: 63
Views: 12644

Re: Staggering World Debt Points toward Crisis

The same is true of stocks!  That is, a share of stock is simply a claim on the company's future earnings stream. In October 2014, U.S. Stock market capitalization was $22 trillion ( link ), while GDP was $17.5 trillion ( see page 3 ). I think owning a share of stock is a bit different.  If you own...
by jason
Tue Mar 29, 2016 3:20 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Staggering World Debt Points toward Crisis
Replies: 63
Views: 12644

Re: Staggering World Debt Points toward Crisis

The debt (which backs money now) is actually a claim on future earnings. The same is true of stocks!  That is, a share of stock is simply a claim on the company's future earnings stream. In October 2014, U.S. Stock market capitalization was $22 trillion ( link ), while GDP was $17.5 trillion ( see ...
by jason
Mon Mar 28, 2016 4:28 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Marc Faber portfolio?
Replies: 4
Views: 2555

Re: Marc Faber portfolio?

Here's my interpretation with: 25% total stock market 25% long term treasuries 25% gold 25% reits [img width=500]http://i64.tinypic.com/1yww00.jpg[/img] It's kinda like the PP on steroids. Not bad.  One thing that makes me pause is that once you account for REITs in the total stock market fund an t...
by jason
Sun Mar 27, 2016 11:03 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Marc Faber portfolio?
Replies: 4
Views: 2555

Marc Faber portfolio?

Marc Faber has been saying for a while that he recommends an asset allocation of 25% gold, 25% stocks, 25% bonds (and cash), and 25% real estate.  I don't think he ever says how much cash he holds.  So, this made me wonder if anyone has done a back test of 25% gold, 25% stocks, 25% bonds, and 25% re...
by jason
Fri Mar 18, 2016 4:13 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How do you determine after-tax budget with 4% SWR?
Replies: 18
Views: 3063

Re: How do you determine after-tax budget with 4% SWR?

3% probably is overly conservative (if it's set for tax reasons only).  If you're paying 25% as an overall tax rate, presumably you have income from other sources which would reduce the amount you need to draw from the portfolio. I was puzzling about this as well, and decided to discount my project...