Search found 206 matches

by Pet Hog
Wed Oct 09, 2019 9:27 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Bond Purchase Question!
Replies: 6
Views: 3894

Re: The Bond Purchase Question!

Assume I was investing $400,000 total. That would be $100,000 in each investment. Now assume that at a future date I now have $140,000 in bond value and $86,667 in each of the other three investments. I am now supposed to sell $40,000 worth of bonds and buy $13,333 of each of the other investments....
by Pet Hog
Mon Sep 30, 2019 3:00 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: DIY individual stock fund
Replies: 45
Views: 16203

Re: DIY individual stock fund

Pet Hog, I'm not doing any kind of quantitative analysis because I don't think that would improve results over random picks. Broadly, I'm going for what I think are solid "value" stocks that have a record of increasing dividend payouts, have a relatively low P/E (or at least not too high), and are ...
by Pet Hog
Mon Sep 30, 2019 2:49 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: DIY individual stock fund
Replies: 45
Views: 16203

Re: DIY individual stock fund

WHOA! Unexpected! If you equal-weight the Dow 30, and rebalance annually, it's really kick-a$$. I had to omit DOW and V because they don't go back far enough in time. You've inspired another backtest, Ochotona! The 30 components of the DJIA on January 1, 2000 were: Alcoa Inc. AlliedSignal Incorpora...
by Pet Hog
Thu Sep 26, 2019 12:42 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: DIY individual stock fund
Replies: 45
Views: 16203

Re: DIY individual stock fund

Kriegsspiel, I have no fixation with randomness. I'm wondering if a small equal-weighted portfolio might match or out-perform a market-cap-weighted index. I can't buy every stock in, say, the SP500 (I'm not that rich), so the challenge would be buy a subset and get similar (hopefully superior) retur...
by Pet Hog
Wed Sep 25, 2019 6:32 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?
Replies: 65
Views: 24641

Re: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

Does anyone here know if an analysis has been done of the price correlation between gold and LTTs over at least the past few decades? I'd be interested to see if the correlation has always been high or if it's increased in recent years. Lately, based on my own observations of daily closing prices, ...
by Pet Hog
Wed Sep 25, 2019 6:04 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: DIY individual stock fund
Replies: 45
Views: 16203

Re: DIY individual stock fund

I guess, Sophie, that my motivation is a lot like yours. I want to cut out a level of bureaucracy and get closer to direct ownership of the shares. I felt my PP was much more bulletproof, and I was more in control, once I ditched TLT and started buying 30-year treasuries at auction. I haven't owned ...
by Pet Hog
Tue Sep 24, 2019 9:15 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: DIY individual stock fund
Replies: 45
Views: 16203

Re: DIY individual stock fund

I went looking for historical Wilshire 5000 component data, but came up short. I'm sure it's out there somewhere. Found historical SP500 component data on the iShares IVV page. Taking their listing of the components of IVV from August 28 2014, let's see how a simple every-sixteenth-stock selection s...
by Pet Hog
Tue Sep 24, 2019 6:37 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: DIY individual stock fund
Replies: 45
Views: 16203

Re: DIY individual stock fund

The n^2.09 portfolio, with mega-caps and micro-caps avoided. The first three columns are n, n^2.09 (ignoring fractions), and n^2.09 + 5 [e.g., Facebook, the first company on this list (n = 1) is actually 6th on the list of richest companies] 01 0001 0006 Facebook (532 billion) 02 0004 0009 Johnson &...
by Pet Hog
Tue Sep 24, 2019 4:45 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: DIY individual stock fund
Replies: 45
Views: 16203

Re: DIY individual stock fund

Given the positive results, I'm going to model one more portfolio, based on the n^2.4 concept. I haven't started the model, but here are the rules. (1) Because the micro-caps are difficult to model (often with few data because they are new) and because they are volatile and I might not want to hold ...
by Pet Hog
Tue Sep 24, 2019 3:52 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: DIY individual stock fund
Replies: 45
Views: 16203

Re: DIY individual stock fund

True, but the Dow is a piss-poor representation of the market and not something that you want to emulate! The only good thing about buying the Dow and nothing else would be that you could look up from your meal at the screen of a sports bar and see how your investments are doing. No spreadsheet nee...
by Pet Hog
Tue Sep 24, 2019 1:36 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: DIY individual stock fund
Replies: 45
Views: 16203

Re: DIY individual stock fund

In a set of only 31 stocks, I count 3 banks. Home Depot *and* Lowe’s? What if you cheated a little by tweaking it or rerunning it until you have a better representation of different sectors? The Dow Jones Industrial Average comprises 30 companies. Including American Express, Goldman Sachs, and JP M...
by Pet Hog
Tue Sep 24, 2019 2:13 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: DIY individual stock fund
Replies: 45
Views: 16203

Re: DIY individual stock fund

Yep! Read some of my old posts on the GB and you may see that I also like small cap blend in the portfolio basically for the equal weighting potential you point out. Since total market funds also contain mid and small caps, and small cap funds also contain more mid caps than you'd think, mix 50% VT...