Search found 260 matches

by Pet Hog
Thu Jan 06, 2022 2:55 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The PP, marginal utility, and investment "faith"
Replies: 135
Views: 46938

Re: The PP, marginal utility, and investment "faith"

Smith, sorry for your loss. I've never been in your situation, but I did receive a windfall once that doubled my PP and I recall the nervousness of placing what, at the time, seemed like huge trades. I have a few thoughts. One, think of your portfolio in terms of percentages, not dollars. The PP (fo...
by Pet Hog
Mon Jan 03, 2022 7:48 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2022 PP predictions
Replies: 44
Views: 14301

2022 PP predictions

Putting these predictions out there for ridicule come 2023! Stocks: down (guessing -20%) LTTs: down (guessing -20%) Gold: up (guessing +25%) Cash: up (guessing +5%) ----- PP: slightly down (guessing -3% nominal) ----- Rationale: Pandemic -- over or ignored Inflation -- high because of short supply S...
by Pet Hog
Mon Jan 03, 2022 6:52 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2021 PP Returns
Replies: 30
Views: 7895

Re: 2021 PP Returns

My 2021 data point. I'm a traditionalist, 4x25.

Nominal return: 5.14%
Inflation: 6.81%
Real return: -1.67%

Damn that inflation!
by Pet Hog
Tue Aug 10, 2021 8:04 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Solution: How to contribute online to a Fidelity solo 401k
Replies: 1
Views: 895

Solution: How to contribute online to a Fidelity solo 401k

I recall (but can't find it) there being some discussion here, many moons ago, about all the jumping through hoops needed to contribute online to a Fidelity solo 401k. In the past I have mailed a check, deposited a check at a Fidelity branch, or ACH'd money to a Fidelity checking account then called...
by Pet Hog
Wed May 12, 2021 3:43 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Thoughts please: cancel culture and my book club
Replies: 20
Views: 5877

Re: Thoughts please: cancel culture and my book club

I suggest you two should be like William Thackeray and Makepeace.
by Pet Hog
Mon Feb 01, 2021 3:36 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Another solid January
Replies: 15
Views: 14723

Re: Another solid January

Below, the numbers are adjusted closes for December 31 and January 29 (from Yahoo), then the percentage change. VTI 194.64 193.99 -0.33% TLT 157.73 152.00 -3.63% GLD 178.36 172.61 -3.22% SHY 86.38 86.40 +0.02% PP January 2021: [(-0.33) + (-3.63) + (-3.22) + (+0.02)]/4 = -1.79% A negative January -- ...
by Pet Hog
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:50 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?
Replies: 95
Views: 75211

Re: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

Sure, I think we're due for some dramatic market turbulence in the next couple of years, but there seems to be so much doom and gloom in the personal finance world these days that perhaps it's already factored in (i.e., if everyone thinks we're going to crash it's unlikely to happen). If I were to ...
by Pet Hog
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:42 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: DIY individual stock fund
Replies: 49
Views: 56033

Re: DIY individual stock fund

jalanlong wrote: Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:57 pm So did you ever give this a tryout?
No, not yet. Perhaps when/if I rebalance into stocks.
by Pet Hog
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:40 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Spikes in Premium on PHYS
Replies: 14
Views: 12118

Re: Spikes in Premium on PHYS

Along with yesterday's big decrease in the price of gold, PHYS traded most of the day with a big discount. I added to my holdings (from IAU) when the discount was 2.38%. I'll be looking to exit next week if the discount shrinks or evaporates. According to the chart at the bottom of this page , the ...
by Pet Hog
Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:42 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Tax Day Pushed to June 15
Replies: 4
Views: 2361

Re: Tax Day Pushed to June 15

Looks like it's July 15 for filing. Even better!

Tweet from Mnuchin.
by Pet Hog
Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:39 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Synthesis of hydroxychloroquine
Replies: 3
Views: 2170

Re: Synthesis of hydroxychloroquine

I have read that there is a shortage of this compound that should be remedied by mid-April. If it is important to have this compound for the coronavirus outbreak, that's way too late. We can't wait for an FDA-approved laboratory to fix this shortage or a lot of people are going to die. Any organic ...
by Pet Hog
Fri Mar 20, 2020 4:25 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP vs. real gold bugs
Replies: 26
Views: 10508

Re: PP vs. real gold bugs

The young Tyson's impeccable blend of defensive bobbing and weaving and insane punching power was very PP-like. ;D Hmm, it never occurred to me earlier, but perhaps Mike was talking about the PP? "My style is impetuous, my defense is impregnable." "How dare they challenge me with the...
by Pet Hog
Sat Mar 07, 2020 8:02 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Wise move to sell LTTs and buy new 30-years?
Replies: 6
Views: 4750

Re: Wise move to sell LTTs and buy new 30-years?

Just thinking out loud. Writing this stuff down to see if I can convince myself that there is any potential advantage. Perhaps I should consider of a more extreme example. There is a 21-year treasury (maturing 5/15/2041) with a 4.375% coupon, currently valued at $159.63. As a PP investor, I would ho...
by Pet Hog
Sat Mar 07, 2020 6:36 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Wise move to sell LTTs and buy new 30-years?
Replies: 6
Views: 4750

Re: Wise move to sell LTTs and buy new 30-years?

Are these held taxable or tax deferred? If taxable there is benefit to selling and realizing the gain as a long term cap gain and trading down to the lower yield (you may even be able to harvest some stock losses right now to help pay the tax bill). Now, you do alter your average maturity when you ...
by Pet Hog
Sat Mar 07, 2020 6:11 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Negative interest rates
Replies: 57
Views: 30296

Re: Negative interest rates

If that's the case do you believe this theory is correct? Hal, that's a beautiful and informative chart. Yes, I would have to say I do believe in the theory, whatever it might be! (I suspect it says that as money pours into an economy it goes to higher levels of the double-pyramid -- with riskier a...
by Pet Hog
Sat Mar 07, 2020 5:19 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Wise move to sell LTTs and buy new 30-years?
Replies: 6
Views: 4750

Wise move to sell LTTs and buy new 30-years?

I have a question that you all might have some idea about. I own two lots of LTTs, with 27 and 28 years left to maturity. I bought them with yields of about 3%. Each price today is over $140. Both gained around 7% on Friday. Crazy! Let's say I bought $10,000 of bonds. Now they're worth $14,000. If I...
by Pet Hog
Sat Mar 07, 2020 4:23 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Negative interest rates
Replies: 57
Views: 30296

Re: Negative interest rates

From a quick google search I found that, according to this chart , there are $1.46 trillion US dollars in circulation (paper money, greenbacks). According to this PBS article , the population of the US is 331 million. That means each person could hold, on average, about $4400 in cash. What that tell...
by Pet Hog
Sat Feb 29, 2020 2:53 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Spikes in Premium on PHYS
Replies: 14
Views: 12118

Re: Spikes in Premium on PHYS

Along with yesterday's big decrease in the price of gold, PHYS traded most of the day with a big discount. I added to my holdings (from IAU) when the discount was 2.38%. I'll be looking to exit next week if the discount shrinks or evaporates. According to the chart at the bottom of this page , the d...
by Pet Hog
Sun Feb 02, 2020 1:00 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Another solid January
Replies: 15
Views: 14723

Re: Another solid January

Don wrote: Sat Feb 01, 2020 9:23 pm
MangoMan wrote: Sat Feb 01, 2020 3:12 pm Odd that stocks were the loser of the month. Usually, January is a very good time to own stocks.
Coronavirus
If you see my initial post in this thread, stocks have not been consistently good in January in recent years. Whereas, gold has been outstanding.
by Pet Hog
Sat Feb 01, 2020 3:07 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Another solid January
Replies: 15
Views: 14723

Re: Another solid January

January did it again.

Numbers below are Jan 31 closing price, Dec 31 adjusted closing price, and %change.

VTI 163.52 163.62 -0.06
TLT 145.90 135.48 +7.69
IAU 15.17 14.50 +4.62
SHY 85.12 84.63 +0.58

PP January 2020: (-0.06 + 7.69 + 4.62 + 0.58)/4 = +3.16%
by Pet Hog
Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:10 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Spikes in Premium on PHYS
Replies: 14
Views: 12118

Re: Spikes in Premium on PHYS

January appears to be the strongest month of the year. Image from this article.

Image
by Pet Hog
Tue Jan 14, 2020 5:45 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Spikes in Premium on PHYS
Replies: 14
Views: 12118

Re: Spikes in Premium on PHYS

Well spotted! With no obvious end-of-day spike relative to other gold ETFs, perhaps we are finally truly getting into premium territory. I'll probably sell if the premium gets above 1%, but will keep an eye on the price and not rush it. It's not been above 1% since November 2016. Thanks for the head...
by Pet Hog
Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:01 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Forum / Team?
Replies: 17
Views: 9165

Re: Forum / Team?

Pointedstick wrote: Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:28 am You must harden your heart and crush them remorselessly if you want to preserve your society.
I imagine Pointedstick saying this line in this style.
by Pet Hog
Fri Jan 10, 2020 4:40 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: New all-time high
Replies: 30
Views: 21303

Re: New all-time high

Sure, Vinny -- it does seem like a good time for an update. I'm at an all-time high again. It looked like the PP had peaked in early September 2019, but it ended the year with a surge during the the last few trading days. My PP gained a nominal 16.7% in 2019 (about 14.3% real -- I'll know more accur...
by Pet Hog
Sat Dec 28, 2019 3:24 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Golden Butterfly
Replies: 28
Views: 13388

Re: Golden Butterfly

I believe WiseOne means "40% bands" for the PP as 0.25 ± 40% (or 0.25 ± 0.10, from 0.35 to 0.15). And "30% bands" for the GB as 0.20 ± 30% (or 0.20 ± 0.06, from 0.26 to 0.14).