Search found 204 matches

by Pet Hog
Thu Nov 28, 2019 5:02 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Spikes in Premium on PHYS
Replies: 12
Views: 765

Re: Spikes in Premium on PHYS

I think that's exactly how the stock market works. Whatever the last sale was, that sets the market cap. Even if it was just one share. And, as you say, the next morning the mistake gets fixed with the first trade, so there's no way for us to take advantage of it.
by Pet Hog
Wed Nov 27, 2019 10:17 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Spikes in Premium on PHYS
Replies: 12
Views: 765

Re: Spikes in Premium on PHYS

I'm in the same boat -- waiting for the PHYS premium to turn positive. The expense ratio is something like 0.48%. A bit too high, but I was hoping to take advantage of swings in the premium (buy negative, sell positive). I'm still clueless as to why anyone would sell when the premium is negative. Ho...
by Pet Hog
Wed Oct 16, 2019 11:56 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Investment locations?
Replies: 26
Views: 14306

Re: Investment locations?

This might be easier: gold. Same lady, same strategy and history. She invests $100,000 in gold in taxable account, Scenario (1). She never sells for 40 years. There are no dividends. The gold goes up in value to $2,000,000. I think that, long term, gold has done almost as well as stocks, so it might...
by Pet Hog
Wed Oct 16, 2019 11:16 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Investment locations?
Replies: 26
Views: 14306

Re: Investment locations?

For some light relief, on to Scenario (2): Trad IRA. Same history. $100,000 invested, and a tax break. Her bank balance is $0. She earns 2% in dividends and invests it all -- no taxes along the way. The portfolio grows to $2,000,000. After 40 years, she retires. Withdraws $100,000 from her Trad IRA....
by Pet Hog
Wed Oct 16, 2019 11:05 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Investment locations?
Replies: 26
Views: 14306

Re: Investment locations?

OK, I'll do one more, for long-term treasuries. Same situation and history for the lady investor. But now she is investing $100,000 only in LTTs. For a coupon yield, I'm going to pick 2%, close to what it is today. The investor buys the LTTs in a taxable account, Scenario (1). Again, she reinvests a...
by Pet Hog
Wed Oct 16, 2019 10:03 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Investment locations?
Replies: 26
Views: 14306

Re: Investment locations?

Now, in retirement, she wants to live off $100,000. At 2%, the dividends earned this year total $20,000. That means our investor has to sell $80,000 worth of stock. That amount has a tax basis of $20,000 (25%). So the capital gain of that $80,000 is $60,000. OK, I spotted one mistake already, but i...
by Pet Hog
Wed Oct 16, 2019 9:36 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Investment locations?
Replies: 26
Views: 14306

Re: Investment locations?

Scenario (3) : Roth IRA. Same background as before. Our investor puts $100,000 into a Roth IRA. She gets no tax benefit for doing so. She pays 24% on that money earned before investment. We can consider her to have a bank balance of -$24,000. Over 40 years she reinvests the dividends, averaging $10,...
by Pet Hog
Wed Oct 16, 2019 9:19 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Investment locations?
Replies: 26
Views: 14306

Re: Investment locations?

Scenario (2): Stock investing in a Traditional IRA. Same background as before. Our investor places $100,000 over 40 years into a Trad IRA. She gets a tax break on that money. She's in the 24% tax bracket, so there is a saving of $24,000 relative to the previous example. We can consider her to have a...
by Pet Hog
Wed Oct 16, 2019 8:45 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Investment locations?
Replies: 26
Views: 14306

Re: Investment locations?

This topic is so fundamental to PP investing, I think we need to reach a definitive consensus. I need some numbers to understand the complexity, and I would love it if you all would correct me if I make a mistake below. Thanks. Let's consider a PP investor, who invests in the four assets, but let's ...
by Pet Hog
Wed Oct 09, 2019 9:41 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?
Replies: 65
Views: 23825

Re: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

I hear ya. It's true that we don't have a lot of data for rising rates. But we do have a full decade of truly skyrocketing rates. And during that time the PP still stayed right within its normal band of returns. Personally, I don't think the PP was driven by falling rates any more than it was drive...
by Pet Hog
Wed Oct 09, 2019 9:27 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Bond Purchase Question!
Replies: 6
Views: 3764

Re: The Bond Purchase Question!

Assume I was investing $400,000 total. That would be $100,000 in each investment. Now assume that at a future date I now have $140,000 in bond value and $86,667 in each of the other three investments. I am now supposed to sell $40,000 worth of bonds and buy $13,333 of each of the other investments....
by Pet Hog
Mon Sep 30, 2019 3:00 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: DIY individual stock fund
Replies: 45
Views: 15536

Re: DIY individual stock fund

Pet Hog, I'm not doing any kind of quantitative analysis because I don't think that would improve results over random picks. Broadly, I'm going for what I think are solid "value" stocks that have a record of increasing dividend payouts, have a relatively low P/E (or at least not too high), and are ...