Search found 218 matches

by Pet Hog
Tue Jan 20, 2015 6:02 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is a 4% monthly gain likely to be followed by a monthly loss?
Replies: 9
Views: 3303

Is a 4% monthly gain likely to be followed by a monthly loss?

As of today my PP is already up 4% YTD.  While gratifying, it is also a bit scary — are these gains merely temporary?  To see what has happened in the past, I took data from peaktotrough.com and ran some numbers.  Looks like the historical answer is that a 4% monthly gain is not particularly likely ...
by Pet Hog
Mon Jan 19, 2015 4:16 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: More stocks for the rich
Replies: 20
Views: 5783

Re: More stocks for the rich

I wonder, is there really much opportunity to boost returns by investing in stocks once you've amassed great wealth?  Why take the risk of that 50% haircut?  The CAGR of the PP (35/15) since 1/1/1972 has been 9.28%, while for the S&P500 it has been 9.58% (dividends reinvested, numbers from peak2trou...
by Pet Hog
Thu Jan 15, 2015 1:17 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: EE Savings Bond/Roth IRA Basic Math Question
Replies: 6
Views: 1804

Re: EE Savings Bond/Roth IRA Basic Math Question

I have some EE bonds that hit their doubling date recently. They are now earning about 1.4% and I am thinking seriously about cashing them in, paying taxes on the gains , and putting the proceeds into a Roth IRA (I am self-employed and can put quite a lot into the Roth/Solo 401k Roth combo). Hi Bar...
by Pet Hog
Fri Nov 28, 2014 2:32 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Can I allow my gold assets to lag?
Replies: 9
Views: 3622

Re: Can I allow my gold assets to lag?

Since I don't use rebalancing bands, I'm wondering...  how close is gold to hitting the 15% since the peak in 2011? Using peaktotrough's data, a PP started on August 22, 2011 (gold's all-time high) with 35/15 rebalance bands and reinvested dividends would have undergone rebalancing on May 17, 2013,...
by Pet Hog
Thu Nov 20, 2014 2:34 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Setting Up a Brand New Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 16
Views: 4599

Re: Setting Up a Brand New Permanent Portfolio

Hi tdepaula! There is a lot of advice on this thread (and in this forum in general) about keeping a separate PP in each separate account, with the aim of simplifying rebalancing.  In your case, I don't think that's necessary.  Correct me if I am wrong, but you will have a regular taxable brokerage a...
by Pet Hog
Thu Nov 13, 2014 3:06 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Fats and Health
Replies: 116
Views: 20408

Re: Fats and Health

It's because mustard gas is derived from the erucic acid in rapeseed oil. As an organic chemist, I must object!  The chemical structure of erucic acid (a long-chain fatty acid) is completely unrelated to that of mustard gas (a short sulfur-containing molecule).  There is no way anyone would synthes...
by Pet Hog
Fri Oct 31, 2014 2:05 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Buying GTU now?
Replies: 41
Views: 11236

Re: Buying GTU now?

Update:  The premium on GTU right now is -9.3%.  That's the lowest I have seen in the last 18 months or so, during which time it has hovered mostly around -5%, but reaching, as mentioned above, -1% at one time.  I'm going to wait until I breach my 15% band, but this discount sure is tempting me to r...
by Pet Hog
Fri Oct 31, 2014 3:57 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: What's your prostate cancer risk?
Replies: 11
Views: 2002

Re: What's your prostate cancer risk?

Sex with 21 women lowers risk of prostate cancer.  Simultaneously or consecutively?
by Pet Hog
Sun Aug 17, 2014 7:19 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Evolution discussion
Replies: 327
Views: 32501

Re: Evolution discussion

My take on evolution is basically this: 1.  The basic concept makes little to no common sense.  Mutations are overwhelmingly negative, not positive, and the series of positive mutations required to produce even small improvements in a life form are extremely unlikely. Quantum theory makes no common...
by Pet Hog
Sun Aug 17, 2014 6:48 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Evolution discussion
Replies: 327
Views: 32501

Re: Evolution discussion

Because there is no proof that it is wrong it must be true?  Evolution explains a lot and to that degree "works".  But there are some whopping holes i.e. things that it seems very unlikely to be explainable by the same mechanism that explains the rest.  Anyone can be convinced of anything but that ...
by Pet Hog
Sun Aug 17, 2014 3:39 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Evolution discussion
Replies: 327
Views: 32501

Re: Evolution discussion

Thank you for the reply.  It is very interesting, a very interesting hypothesis.  The second subject dealing with thalidomide makes sense.  I can buy that one as I expect it is reproduceable in a controlled experiment (Yuck to ponder the ethics of that one!).  The first, as I said, very interesting...
by Pet Hog
Sun Aug 17, 2014 2:09 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Evolution discussion
Replies: 327
Views: 32501

Re: Evolution discussion

Could someone give me an reasonable explanation for how two fish mutated at essentially the same time and in the same vast oceanic location to have lungs instead of gills, sprouted legs so they could crawl onto dry land and not drown, and then found each other, mated and produced more little fish-b...