Search found 218 matches

by Pet Hog
Thu Apr 30, 2015 4:37 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TLT Negative YTD
Replies: 39
Views: 12701

Re: TLT Negative YTD

Inspired by ochotona's hope for a 7% return this year, I ran some numbers for the first third of PP 2015.  Not great performance, but not terrible, at +1.55% nominal (0.99% real).  Annualized, that would be about 4.7% nominal.  With almost no inflation, we're on track for quite an average real PP re...
by Pet Hog
Thu Apr 23, 2015 3:42 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Sprott Intends to Make Exchange Offers for Central GoldTrust and Silver Bullion
Replies: 208
Views: 51984

Re: Sprott Intends to Make Exchange Offers for Central GoldTrust and Silver Bullion

You may be right, since they say "NAV to NAV basis" but I don't really know what that means.  Maybe it means they will offer to exchange PHYS for GTU on a 90% NAV to 100% NAV basis.  They haven't made a legal offer either way so it's talk and speculation at this point. My understanding comes from t...
by Pet Hog
Thu Apr 23, 2015 2:48 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Sprott Intends to Make Exchange Offers for Central GoldTrust and Silver Bullion
Replies: 208
Views: 51984

Re: Sprott Intends to Make Exchange Offers for Central GoldTrust and Silver Bullion

Basically, PHYS intends to buy GTU, in which case you'll just end up shares of PHYS.  This is a good deal for PHYS since GTU trades at a discount. Correct me if I am wrong, but it looks like PHYS is going to buy GTU at its NAV, so there should be no discount for PHYS.  They'll be buying all of GTU'...
by Pet Hog
Thu Apr 16, 2015 1:48 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Please explain why anyone wants GTU if no redemption option??
Replies: 6
Views: 1952

Re: Please explain why anyone wants GTU if no redemption option??

Beautiful post, MWKXJ.  You seem to know your stuff when it comes to CEFs.  So can I ask why do you (or anyone else if they care to chime in) think the discount on the NAV for GTU is so large (>8% today)? Compared to stock and bond CEFs, GTU is dead simple.  A vault it Canada holds X ounces of gold,...
by Pet Hog
Sat Feb 21, 2015 5:19 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Will the gold market survive the atomic-scale personal manufacturing future?
Replies: 26
Views: 6145

Re: Will the gold market survive the atomic-scale personal manufacturing future?

PS, a machine that takes individual atoms and assembles them into anything you want is, in effect, performing chemical synthesis.  That's currently really hard to do on anything other than the nanoscale (more like the angstrom-scale), but such a technology is feasible.  But mixing protons, neutrons,...
by Pet Hog
Tue Feb 10, 2015 4:12 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 0.88 Sharpe (last 35 yrs)
Replies: 27
Views: 10548

Re: 0.88 Sharpe (last 35 yrs)

I have tried modeling this portfolio using numbers from peaktotrough.com.  The numbers don't match the Simba numbers exactly, but it's good to get a second opinion. Year Stock Bond Gold Top 2 Add 10% 1972 18.2 5.6 39.7 1973 -15.6 -8.0 75.6 30.0 26.2 1974 -27.5 2.1 66.1 34.1 28.0 1975 36.1 7.1 -24.8 ...
by Pet Hog
Tue Feb 10, 2015 1:52 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 0.88 Sharpe (last 35 yrs)
Replies: 27
Views: 10548

Re: 0.88 Sharpe (last 35 yrs)

Hi azmat9 I think your numbers are a bit off.  Could you check them again?  For example, there is no data for 1985: Year Annual Stocks Bonds Gold 1984 31.2 31.7 30.7 5.3 1986 21.1 17.9 24.2 20.8 Also, there are several instances where you don't seem to have followed your rebalance strategy.  For exa...
by Pet Hog
Sun Feb 01, 2015 6:08 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Backtesting with "factored" rebalance bands
Replies: 9
Views: 2493

Re: Backtesting with "factored" rebalance bands

Here is a chart of the CAGRs of PPs started on 1/1/1972 and ended on 1/29/2015 (the same date range as above, using the same daily data).  The rebalance bands are "traditional" equally ranged ones (35/15, 30/20, 40/10, and so on), but I have modeled all ranges (25 ± x) from ±0.1% (rebalance almost d...
by Pet Hog
Sun Feb 01, 2015 2:17 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Backtesting with "factored" rebalance bands
Replies: 9
Views: 2493

Re: Backtesting with "factored" rebalance bands

Are you're looking for symmetrical 41.67%/15% rebalancing bands so that losses are covered to breakeven back at the 25% point? MG, the traditional bands for the PP (30/20, 35/15, 40/10) don't capture "buy low" as well as they do "sell high."  These "25 + x" and "25 – x" bands when taken to their ex...
by Pet Hog
Fri Jan 30, 2015 10:41 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Backtesting with "factored" rebalance bands
Replies: 9
Views: 2493

Re: Backtesting with "factored" rebalance bands

Hi Buddtholemew If you check http://www.peaktotrough.com/hbpp.cgi and put 1/1/1972 as the starting date, rebalance as "none," and reinvest dividends as "yes," you will get a CAGR of 8.24%.  That matches my value.  I agree, unbalanced equals more volatility, and with the 81.17/2.51 bands you are pret...
by Pet Hog
Fri Jan 30, 2015 8:10 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Backtesting with "factored" rebalance bands
Replies: 9
Views: 2493

Backtesting with "factored" rebalance bands

In May 2013, my first post on this forum considered 40/15 rebalance bands as an alternative to 35/15 or 40/10.  My argument remains that 40/15 bands better reflect the doubling or halving of a PP component and that they catch an even number of rebalances on the downside and upside.  My limited testi...
by Pet Hog
Thu Jan 22, 2015 2:38 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: What is your dream job ?
Replies: 29
Views: 6540

Re: What is your dream job ?

My dream job would be one where every ounce of effort I put into it would benefit me materially, physically, and spiritually, not just (or maybe even not at all) financially.  Ultimately, that means complete self-sufficiency and financial independence.  I would love to use permaculture techniques to...