Search found 206 matches

by Pet Hog
Sun Feb 02, 2020 1:00 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Another solid January
Replies: 13
Views: 5202

Re: Another solid January

Don wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 9:23 pm
pugchief wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 3:12 pm
Odd that stocks were the loser of the month. Usually, January is a very good time to own stocks.
Coronavirus
If you see my initial post in this thread, stocks have not been consistently good in January in recent years. Whereas, gold has been outstanding.
by Pet Hog
Sat Feb 01, 2020 3:07 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Another solid January
Replies: 13
Views: 5202

Re: Another solid January

January did it again.

Numbers below are Jan 31 closing price, Dec 31 adjusted closing price, and %change.

VTI 163.52 163.62 -0.06
TLT 145.90 135.48 +7.69
IAU 15.17 14.50 +4.62
SHY 85.12 84.63 +0.58

PP January 2020: (-0.06 + 7.69 + 4.62 + 0.58)/4 = +3.16%
by Pet Hog
Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:10 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Spikes in Premium on PHYS
Replies: 12
Views: 880

Re: Spikes in Premium on PHYS

January appears to be the strongest month of the year. Image from this article.

Image
by Pet Hog
Tue Jan 14, 2020 5:45 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Spikes in Premium on PHYS
Replies: 12
Views: 880

Re: Spikes in Premium on PHYS

Well spotted! With no obvious end-of-day spike relative to other gold ETFs, perhaps we are finally truly getting into premium territory. I'll probably sell if the premium gets above 1%, but will keep an eye on the price and not rush it. It's not been above 1% since November 2016. Thanks for the head...
by Pet Hog
Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:01 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Forum / Team?
Replies: 19
Views: 862

Re: Forum / Team?

Pointedstick wrote:
Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:28 am
You must harden your heart and crush them remorselessly if you want to preserve your society.
I imagine Pointedstick saying this line in this style.
by Pet Hog
Fri Jan 10, 2020 4:40 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: New all-time high
Replies: 32
Views: 8318

Re: New all-time high

Sure, Vinny -- it does seem like a good time for an update. I'm at an all-time high again. It looked like the PP had peaked in early September 2019, but it ended the year with a surge during the the last few trading days. My PP gained a nominal 16.7% in 2019 (about 14.3% real -- I'll know more accur...
by Pet Hog
Sat Dec 28, 2019 3:24 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Golden Butterfly
Replies: 28
Views: 1450

Re: Golden Butterfly

I believe Sophie means "40% bands" for the PP as 0.25 ± 40% (or 0.25 ± 0.10, from 0.35 to 0.15). And "30% bands" for the GB as 0.20 ± 30% (or 0.20 ± 0.06, from 0.26 to 0.14).
by Pet Hog
Thu Dec 26, 2019 2:24 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Asset locations
Replies: 27
Views: 959

Re: Asset locations

Somehow the section from the book on Tax Deferred Accounts that I put here did not show up? "Tax-Deferred Accounts (Speaking of gold, bullion is taxed as a “collectible” at a special high 28% capital gains rate, so there is an advantage to holding it inside an IRA.) I believe this line from the boo...
by Pet Hog
Sun Dec 15, 2019 11:55 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Buying and maintaining the LT bonds part of the PP
Replies: 19
Views: 1249

Re: Buying and maintaining the LT bonds part of the PP

The logic here is flawed about if rates go up ...selling a bond that lost value because rates went up and losing money is no different then selling a losing stock and buying something you think is better .... a loss is a loss and it does not come back ...you just. Hope what you buy next be it anoth...
by Pet Hog
Sun Dec 15, 2019 11:44 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Help me get over my fear of LTTs
Replies: 12
Views: 816

Re: Help me get over my fear of LTTs

I agree with mathjak that it's the same. TLT holds 38 different bonds in a ladder. See the Portfolio/Holdings section here . Buying that ETF is akin to you holding the same ladder. It shouldn't make a difference if you rebalance your PP by buying treasuries directly or buying them through TLT. Ther...
by Pet Hog
Sat Dec 14, 2019 4:08 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Buying and maintaining the LT bonds part of the PP
Replies: 19
Views: 1249

Re: Buying and maintaining the LT bonds part of the PP

1. The only bond with 30-year maturity is https://www.boerse-berlin.com/index.php/Bonds?isin=DE0001102481. It has a 0% coupon and trades at a discount. Does all that matter? I think in theory it doesn't matter what the coupon is -- positive, zero, or negative. All that matters is the volatility. Th...
by Pet Hog
Fri Dec 13, 2019 4:08 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Podcasts
Replies: 24
Views: 3556

Re: Podcasts

Guy dismantles the first chapter of Why We Sleep , via Tyler Cowen . Thanks, Kriegsspiel. That's a well articulated critique. This smackdown is exactly how peer review should work, but I think (from personal experience -- when I was a chemistry postdoc I must have reviewed hundreds of manuscripts) ...