Search found 106 matches

by Tom
Thu Aug 20, 2015 10:18 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: No gains to be had
Replies: 36
Views: 11164

Re: No gains to be had

Today is looking good!  Nice bump in treasuries and gold, stocks having a tough time.
by Tom
Thu Aug 13, 2015 8:45 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: No gains to be had
Replies: 36
Views: 11164

Re: No gains to be had

In a nut shell when you mismatch time frames and try to use volatile assets for short term needs that is risk. I said year to year matters a little more to me since I'm all in (but have emergency cash outside of it), but didn't mean it's a huge factor.  It's for money that isn't neccesarily short t...
by Tom
Wed Aug 12, 2015 7:53 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: No gains to be had
Replies: 36
Views: 11164

Re: No gains to be had

Tom-Like any portfolio you can' t go by a year or even 2 or 3 years. You really need longer time frames because the daily action is almost random. Ytd i am up about 3% . But we had no real up cycle yet this year. I don't consider a 50/50 mix riskier .i consider it more volatile. Volatility is what ...
by Tom
Wed Aug 12, 2015 5:15 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: I Bask in the Awesomeness of Gold
Replies: 41
Views: 10721

Re: I Bask in the Awesomeness of Gold

Fred wrote: I sold $13k of company stock in my ESPP today and now I have to decide on whether to let it sit in cash or buy gold. I'm sitting at about 17% gold in the PP.

So what does your crystal ball say? Should I buy now or wait until re-balance time?
I'd wait until I hit the rebalance band.
by Tom
Wed Aug 12, 2015 5:14 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: No gains to be had
Replies: 36
Views: 11164

Re: No gains to be had

What ever percentages someone wants . The basic total market fund is about 75% s&p 500 so it is really up to the investor as to what allocations they want. Right now  i am about 50% equities with 10% of that international. The remaining 40% is about 1/2  fidelity blue chip growth and fidelity growt...
by Tom
Wed Aug 12, 2015 11:51 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: I Bask in the Awesomeness of Gold
Replies: 41
Views: 10721

Re: I Bask in the Awesomeness of Gold

Been a long time since we've seen a day like this.  Sure, it's only $1125, nothing to write home about, but PPers need to be feeling pretty good today about gold and bonds more than making up for the slide in stocks recently. I completely echo that sentiment.  Feels like good validation that we hol...
by Tom
Wed Aug 12, 2015 11:41 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: No gains to be had
Replies: 36
Views: 11164

Re: No gains to be had

mathjak107 wrote: No crystal ball needed. That is what makes up a typical diversified conventional portfolio. You buy it and rebalance it . No more crystal ball needed to guess market segamants than the pp
You didn't mention what percentages in each.
by Tom
Tue Aug 11, 2015 1:03 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: No gains to be had
Replies: 36
Views: 11164

Re: No gains to be had

In my opinion the portfolio is really doing it's job and today is good example.  It's been lagging, but no serious loss for the year and on days like today the asset no one would otherwise hold (LTTs) reacts to a world event (China devaluation) and gave it a good boost. The year is not over and the ...
by Tom
Wed Jul 22, 2015 4:15 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Perspective on the current drawdown
Replies: 67
Views: 11557

Re: Perspective on the current drawdown

Interesting article on how everything is relative (recency bias) http://www.wikinvest.com/wiki/Recency_bias TL;DR, when you enter the market shapes your opinions. If you enter at a downtime as it keeps going down, you're going to have a very different perspective than someone who had a large run up...
by Tom
Wed Jul 22, 2015 11:36 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Perspective on the current drawdown
Replies: 67
Views: 11557

Re: Perspective on the current drawdown

I'm down a little under 3% YTD.  I look at the PP as the "reality" mode of investing.  Seems like the market doesn't know where it's going and there's a lot of fear selling in treasuries and gold.  Gains in stocks are probably a result of over confidence.  I look at the small loss as the premium you...
by Tom
Tue Jul 21, 2015 3:10 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Predictions For The Bottom In Gold
Replies: 54
Views: 14695

Re: Predictions For The Bottom In Gold

$850
by Tom
Wed Jul 15, 2015 1:44 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Permanent Portfolio is dead
Replies: 79
Views: 17152

Re: The Permanent Portfolio is dead

Beat to the punch.  Was gonna post this.  Everyone has already articulately outlined how they miss the point of why it's "permanent".  Constantly shifting to what you think the environment is or is going to be is not a strategy, it's playing roulette.