Search found 409 matches

by iwealth
Thu Jun 23, 2016 9:31 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Temporary Blindness Tied to Smartphone Use in Dark
Replies: 5
Views: 1589

Temporary Blindness Tied to Smartphone Use in Dark

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_MED_SMARTPHONE_BLINDNESS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-06-22-17-26-38 In Thursday's New England Journal of Medicine, doctors detailed the cases of the two women, ages 22 and 40, who experienced "transient smartphone blindness" for months....
by iwealth
Thu Jun 09, 2016 2:12 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP with 2x leverage (no 2x funds)
Replies: 28
Views: 8921

Re: PP with 2x leverage (no 2x funds)

Cheap for now, but it won't be cheap once/if interest rates rise. But foregoing the obvious, the PP can easily experience a 20-30% drawdown which would leave you down 40-60% + margin interest. I can't recall the historical max intraday drawdown, but it may be even higher than that. So in a hypotheti...
by iwealth
Fri Apr 15, 2016 9:32 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Is This A Crazy Business Idea?
Replies: 12
Views: 1317

Re: Is This A Crazy Business Idea?

I'd say it's pretty clear that what you want to do classifies as investment advising in California and that you'd have to be registered with the state to do so.

But please call the appropriate sources to get an official answer before you do anything.
by iwealth
Wed Nov 18, 2015 2:29 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Swap Spread Negative
Replies: 10
Views: 2997

Re: Swap Spread Negative

Wow. that's a lot of dry powder as Craig would put it. You are quite the pessimist hah. :) More like I couldn't find any value!  Stocks -- nope.  Bonds -- risky.  Gold -- downtrend.  At least I nibbled. I do think we're going to look back at this losing year as "Tight Money"...  even if its more ps...
by iwealth
Wed Oct 21, 2015 4:03 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Why the PP is better in accumulation than you think
Replies: 226
Views: 30836

Re: Why the PP is better in accumulation than you think

Simply following a 200 day MA will get you stopped out all over the place. One key point is to only check 1x per month, same day of the month. It will cause some excess trades, for sure. Small price to pay for potential benefits. But it's not a lazy portfolio. Once a month will be very risky, and j...
by iwealth
Mon Oct 19, 2015 4:45 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Why the PP is better in accumulation than you think
Replies: 226
Views: 30836

Re: Why the PP is better in accumulation than you think

there ias no guarantee when if rates rise  on bonds that the pp won't sustain moderate prolonged losses over an extended period of time if gold and bonds take a hit and its investors bail at losses . . Just a minor correction above. You do make a good point though about drawdown tolerance. Taking i...
by iwealth
Tue Oct 06, 2015 6:57 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Mathjak's Market Calls
Replies: 155
Views: 23804

Re: Mathjak's Market Calls

Working systems are a dime a dozen.  Believing in them and sticking to them thick and thin is where the failure lies.  Discipline. 100% true and backtestable. Systems fail when emotions trump system rules. There's no difference between a moving average and a rebalancing band; both are measures of m...
by iwealth
Tue Sep 29, 2015 12:24 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Reason to Quit PP
Replies: 273
Views: 42203

Re: The Reason to Quit PP

Why bother donning a winter coat in summer, just because we know winter is coming? Enjoy the summer, but know where the coat is. Interesting analogy, but let's take it a step farther. In the big scheme of things, our collective financial analysis knowledge is like that of a child compared to all of...
by iwealth
Mon Sep 28, 2015 11:52 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Reason to Quit PP
Replies: 273
Views: 42203

Re: The Reason to Quit PP

yeah , i know if you are doing it you will try to justify it with no one knows what is next , but a reasonable person who is not entrenched in gold would  at least wait until some signs are in place when the trend is your friend to make a big commitment . they would likely committ no more than 10% ...
by iwealth
Fri Sep 25, 2015 5:43 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Taking Backtest Requests..
Replies: 4
Views: 2033

Re: Taking Backtest Requests..

I've seen this one mentioned before. Once per month calculate trailing 3 month return of 4 PP assets. Invest in top 3. 1994-present CAGR: 7.4% Max daily DD: -20.0% 1994 -4.0 1995 21.3 1996 6.1 1997 12.1 1998 4.8 1999 4.7 2000 0.6 2001 2.7 2002 14.0 2003 9.5 2004 5.4 2005 5.7 2006 15.1 2007 14.0 2008...
by iwealth
Fri Sep 25, 2015 2:47 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Taking Backtest Requests..
Replies: 4
Views: 2033

Re: Taking Backtest Requests..

How many trades did your setup end up making?  As Ochotona showed and I looked at a while back, using 10 month MA is something done out there by folks.  I find even that is doing too much trading and is too whippy for my tastes.  On GLD, since my entry into the PP in Feb 2014, I would have gone in ...
by iwealth
Fri Sep 25, 2015 11:39 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Reason to Quit PP
Replies: 273
Views: 42203

Re: The Reason to Quit PP

gold will always have short term moves based on the dollar  not crises unless inflationary ... Does this really matter? If gold responds to the dollar and the dollar responds to a crisis, what difference does it make? You still get the desired response. at the height of the financial crises gold ac...