Search found 409 matches

by iwealth
Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:13 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: can the 30 year bond stay at this (high) level
Replies: 28
Views: 10544

Re: can the 30 year bond stay at this (high) level

I think in the short term long bonds are over-extended. On a Keltner Channel chart, they are tagging the 3 standard deviation line to the upside on a daily chart. I expect TLO or TLT to come down by 4%. Intermediate to long term, who knows? This is why I completely gave up on market timing. Risk/re...
by iwealth
Sat Jul 09, 2016 1:35 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Oh Come On
Replies: 111
Views: 22094

Re: Oh Come On

So what is the half year overall perfomance for the vanilla U.S. PP for 2016? And ytd? All using start date 1/4/16. For fun, I included the 6/27/16 date as that was the bottom of the 3-day Brexit "correction". VTI/GLD/TLT/SHY: 6/27/16: 11.2% 6/30/16: 12.5% 7/8/16: 15.2% Replacing VTI with USMV (low...
by iwealth
Fri Jul 08, 2016 3:05 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Oh Come On
Replies: 111
Views: 22094

Re: Oh Come On

Sorry to derail the conversation and return to the thread topic..."oh Come On" Imagine being a nubile PP investor and putting all your eggs into the basket on 1-1-2016. You'd vote for HB in the next election. Pretty darn remarkable what continues to transpire. Stocks, bonds, gold, REITs...only thin...
by iwealth
Fri Jul 08, 2016 12:49 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Why should PP continue going up?
Replies: 89
Views: 18645

Re: Why should PP continue going up?

Sam Brazil wrote:and there are even certain alt coins being developed with even better built-in anonymity
Isn't this part of what makes bitcoins so risky? What's the barrier to entry here for newcomers besides branding?
by iwealth
Thu Jul 07, 2016 10:40 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Oh Come On
Replies: 111
Views: 22094

Re: Oh Come On

Seriously folks, counterparty risk for the likely size of our accounts is over done on this board. I find it particularly humorous when I read posts of folks talking about who from and where to buy gold. Id be way more concerned waiting for my gold to arrive than buying a Deutsche Bank ETF. Agreed....
by iwealth
Sat Jul 02, 2016 9:30 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Maximum Bond Upside
Replies: 266
Views: 75896

Re: Maximum Bond Upside

EDV has phantom income taxation issues also. Thinking ahead, we should just assume rates are going to go to 0%. In that case, I don't think we should be buying past 20-year T-Bonds right now. I don't know how bond funds will be reflected, but it seems like it would favor VUSTX at 16.9 duration vs T...
by iwealth
Fri Jul 01, 2016 2:59 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Oh Come On
Replies: 111
Views: 22094

Re: Oh Come On

My gut says shorting the long bond wouldn't be a terribly risky short-term trade right now. I agree, but then look at yields across the world. U.S. LTT's sure look attractive from that perspective. The question is...are treasuries driving gold higher or is rising gold due to inflation on the horizo...
by iwealth
Fri Jul 01, 2016 2:45 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Maximum Bond Upside
Replies: 266
Views: 75896

Re: Maximum Bond Upside

One thing I was thinking of doing is replacing a portion of TLT for EDV and placing the difference in cash. That way I have less absolute $ in LTT's but still have the duration to hedge losses in equities. It's a good plan I think. Only problem is that EDV has lousy liquidity and you'll probably pa...
by iwealth
Fri Jul 01, 2016 2:43 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Oh Come On
Replies: 111
Views: 22094

Re: Oh Come On

My gut says shorting the long bond wouldn't be a terribly risky short-term trade right now.
by iwealth
Wed Jun 29, 2016 3:51 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: NEW FORUM HOST
Replies: 79
Views: 14405

Re: NEW FORUM HOST

pugchief wrote:Still not propagating....
Definitely odd. These usually propagate almost instantly when making a DNS change. But perhaps this issue is more complex.

Either way, it looks like the technical curse plaguing this place jumped from the host to the registrar. It's uncanny.
by iwealth
Sat Jun 25, 2016 9:24 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Brexit
Replies: 39
Views: 11225

Re: Brexit

My personal 70/30 allocation lost a total of 1.67% over the same time period. This includes a 45% allocation to INT, INT SC and Emerging Markets. PP volatilty was lower and I felt protected holding the portfolio. Here in the Dominican Republic, French and Spanish investors were glued to their smart...
by iwealth
Thu Jun 23, 2016 1:53 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Temporary Blindness Tied to Smartphone Use in Dark
Replies: 5
Views: 1589

Re: Temporary Blindness Tied to Smartphone Use in Dark

You now have to order the test to exclude the rare possibility, no matter how unlikely. That is how medicine is practiced (at least in the US). Is this for fear of malpractice suits? Because surely some doctor in the chain had to recognize what was going on here. Do we now have a front line of doct...