I think in the short term long bonds are over-extended. On a Keltner Channel chart, they are tagging the 3 standard deviation line to the upside on a daily chart. I expect TLO or TLT to come down by 4%. Intermediate to long term, who knows? This is why I completely gave up on market timing. Risk/re...

So what is the half year overall perfomance for the vanilla U.S. PP for 2016? And ytd? All using start date 1/4/16. For fun, I included the 6/27/16 date as that was the bottom of the 3-day Brexit "correction". VTI/GLD/TLT/SHY: 6/27/16: 11.2% 6/30/16: 12.5% 7/8/16: 15.2% Replacing VTI with...

Sorry to derail the conversation and return to the thread topic..."oh Come On" Imagine being a nubile PP investor and putting all your eggs into the basket on 1-1-2016. You'd vote for HB in the next election. Pretty darn remarkable what continues to transpire. Stocks, bonds, gold, REITs.....

Sam Brazil wrote:and there are even certain alt coins being developed with even better built-in anonymity

Isn't this part of what makes bitcoins so risky? What's the barrier to entry here for newcomers besides branding?

Seriously folks, counterparty risk for the likely size of our accounts is over done on this board. I find it particularly humorous when I read posts of folks talking about who from and where to buy gold. Id be way more concerned waiting for my gold to arrive than buying a Deutsche Bank ETF. Agreed....

EDV has phantom income taxation issues also. Thinking ahead, we should just assume rates are going to go to 0%. In that case, I don't think we should be buying past 20-year T-Bonds right now. I don't know how bond funds will be reflected, but it seems like it would favor VUSTX at 16.9 duration vs T...

My gut says shorting the long bond wouldn't be a terribly risky short-term trade right now. I agree, but then look at yields across the world. U.S. LTT's sure look attractive from that perspective. The question is...are treasuries driving gold higher or is rising gold due to inflation on the horizo...

One thing I was thinking of doing is replacing a portion of TLT for EDV and placing the difference in cash. That way I have less absolute $ in LTT's but still have the duration to hedge losses in equities. It's a good plan I think. Only problem is that EDV has lousy liquidity and you'll probably pa...

My gut says shorting the long bond wouldn't be a terribly risky short-term trade right now.

MangoMan wrote:Still not propagating....

Definitely odd. These usually propagate almost instantly when making a DNS change. But perhaps this issue is more complex.

Either way, it looks like the technical curse plaguing this place jumped from the host to the registrar. It's uncanny.

My personal 70/30 allocation lost a total of 1.67% over the same time period. This includes a 45% allocation to INT, INT SC and Emerging Markets. PP volatilty was lower and I felt protected holding the portfolio. Here in the Dominican Republic, French and Spanish investors were glued to their smart...

You now have to order the test to exclude the rare possibility, no matter how unlikely. That is how medicine is practiced (at least in the US). Is this for fear of malpractice suits? Because surely some doctor in the chain had to recognize what was going on here. Do we now have a front line of doct...

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_MED_SMARTPHONE_BLINDNESS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-06-22-17-26-38 In Thursday's New England Journal of Medicine, doctors detailed the cases of the two women, ages 22 and 40, who experienced "transient smartphone blind...

Cheap for now, but it won't be cheap once/if interest rates rise. But foregoing the obvious, the PP can easily experience a 20-30% drawdown which would leave you down 40-60% + margin interest. I can't recall the historical max intraday drawdown, but it may be even higher than that. So in a hypotheti...

I'd say it's pretty clear that what you want to do classifies as investment advising in California and that you'd have to be registered with the state to do so.

But please call the appropriate sources to get an official answer before you do anything.

Wow. that's a lot of dry powder as Craig would put it. You are quite the pessimist hah. :) More like I couldn't find any value!  Stocks -- nope.  Bonds -- risky.  Gold -- downtrend.  At least I nibbled. I do think we're going to look back at this losing year as "Tight Money"...  even if i...

Simply following a 200 day MA will get you stopped out all over the place. One key point is to only check 1x per month, same day of the month. It will cause some excess trades, for sure. Small price to pay for potential benefits. But it's not a lazy portfolio. Once a month will be very risky, and j...

there ias no guarantee when if rates rise  on bonds that the pp won't sustain moderate prolonged losses over an extended period of time if gold and bonds take a hit and its investors bail at losses . . Just a minor correction above. You do make a good point though about drawdown tolerance. Taking i...

Working systems are a dime a dozen.  Believing in them and sticking to them thick and thin is where the failure lies.  Discipline. 100% true and backtestable. Systems fail when emotions trump system rules. There's no difference between a moving average and a rebalancing band; both are measures of m...

Why bother donning a winter coat in summer, just because we know winter is coming? Enjoy the summer, but know where the coat is. Interesting analogy, but let's take it a step farther. In the big scheme of things, our collective financial analysis knowledge is like that of a child compared to all of...

yeah , i know if you are doing it you will try to justify it with no one knows what is next , but a reasonable person who is not entrenched in gold would  at least wait until some signs are in place when the trend is your friend to make a big commitment . they would likely committ no more than 10% ...

I've seen this one mentioned before. Once per month calculate trailing 3 month return of 4 PP assets. Invest in top 3. 1994-present CAGR: 7.4% Max daily DD: -20.0% 1994 -4.0 1995 21.3 1996 6.1 1997 12.1 1998 4.8 1999 4.7 2000 0.6 2001 2.7 2002 14.0 2003 9.5 2004 5.4 2005 5.7 2006 15.1 2007 14.0 2008...

How many trades did your setup end up making?  As Ochotona showed and I looked at a while back, using 10 month MA is something done out there by folks.  I find even that is doing too much trading and is too whippy for my tastes.  On GLD, since my entry into the PP in Feb 2014, I would have gone in ...

gold will always have short term moves based on the dollar  not crises unless inflationary ... Does this really matter? If gold responds to the dollar and the dollar responds to a crisis, what difference does it make? You still get the desired response. at the height of the financial crises gold ac...

Same as the above except 100% stocks when bullish. Switch between: 100% total stock market (VTSMX) and the PP (using VTSMX/VUSTX/VFISX and CEF before switching to GLD when it comes available in 2004) When:  SPY is above/below its 200-day SMA. I only look at the portfolio once per month to determine ...