Search found 172 matches

by modeljc
Sun Apr 23, 2017 5:27 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 576
Views: 170547

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

I use 50% bands as in .5 or 1.5x of whatever the allocation percentage is. So using my smallest XIV the bands would be 2.5 and 7.5 while the cash portion would be 22.5 and 67.while 16.66% would be 8.33 and 24.99. My method is as follows: Hit band...start watching When the asset appears to be leveli...
by modeljc
Sun Apr 23, 2017 2:49 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 576
Views: 170547

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

So here's something I watch closely. In fact, besides decay closer than anything else. Does the leveraged PP pull away from a pure SPY portfolio when the market is going down. It better well or why the heck would anyone do this? Why, because these are exactly the times when we expect the leveraged ...
by modeljc
Sat Apr 15, 2017 3:44 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Question for original forum members
Replies: 47
Views: 13196

Re: Question for original forum members

I joined the forum in 2010 after discovering the famous thread on BH forum with lots of gems from Craig and MT. Initially I had 50% in pure PP in IRAs and taxable and another 50% in a PP-like portfolio in my 401k. Some of you might remember my whining about bad 401k with no gold, no LTTs, and a sol...
by modeljc
Wed Apr 12, 2017 4:33 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 167
Views: 39837

Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

It's always a little bittersweet when gold and bonds are strengthening. I'm currently overweight both in my long and slow transition from PP to semi-GB. Days like today feel pretty good in my brokerage account, but at what cost? I really hope peace prevails. Would be interested in what GB per cent ...
by modeljc
Mon Apr 10, 2017 4:43 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 167
Views: 39837

Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

A picture is worth a thousand words... A variable chart is worth a thousand pictures...I think a great place to suggest to "seekers" is to send them to Tyler's excellent portfoliocharts.com site and let them play with the various portfolios or plug in what they are now doing and see how the compare...
by modeljc
Sat Apr 08, 2017 4:28 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 167
Views: 39837

Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

This post isn't about the Permanent Portfolio so much as active vs. passive investing, which most of the posts in this thread (and many others) are really about. My brother has long been a staunch believer in market timing with stocks as the best way to invest. He's also become increasingly busy, b...
by modeljc
Tue Apr 04, 2017 9:34 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 167
Views: 39837

Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

Given the big run-up in stocks over the last 8 years (and bonds too), most investors aren't really worrying about risk right now. Investing has fashions like everything else in human affairs. Me, I worry all the time :) so when all the assets move in the same direction as they have been every time ...
by modeljc
Sat Apr 01, 2017 12:02 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 167
Views: 39837

Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

Even if you add 17 Billion invested in Permanent Portfolio (PRPFX) and 60 Billion in Ray Dalio Bridgewater Assoc. All Weather portfolio you still can't find many who Believe in the Permanent Portfolio. Also the Dalio All Weather is not a pure Permanent Portfolio and PRPFX is not very close either. T...
by modeljc
Wed Mar 29, 2017 7:12 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 576
Views: 170547

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

It was not good. Real money -10% for me and IIRC 16-18% Max DD. Flat markets are awful using 3x ETFs (as advertised). The astute readers will notice how drag differs with rebalance period and market type for that year. Thanks! That was with 50% SHY! Might be a look into the future if PP get funny.
by modeljc
Wed Mar 29, 2017 5:56 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 576
Views: 170547

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

Friction Update Year 1x 3xAnn 3xQtr LevAnn LevQtr 2012 20.85 37.35 31.99 1.79 1.53 2013 14.18 27.04 19.55 1.91 1.38 2014 17.32 27.78 30.03 1.60 1.73 2015 06.81 05.5 10.46 0.81 1.54 2016 09.81 15.74 19.59 1.60 2.00 2017 03.19 5.89 6.71 1.85 2.10 Sorry...this pretty much sucks as a table, maybe one d...
by modeljc
Tue Mar 21, 2017 3:49 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 167
Views: 39837

Re: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

I'd be interested in what your friend did during/after the tech bust in 2000/2001 and the RE bubble in 2008? Just hang on to whatever he had? Sold? Bought? Does he have an advisor recommending things or does it himself? Cash not earning anything, long bonds scare him, gold has no return, yet he's c...
by modeljc
Tue Mar 21, 2017 10:56 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 167
Views: 39837

Nobody believes in the Permanent Portfolio

My friend Charles (Retired) asked me why we only have about 600 registered members. For a world wide forum and a recent book he suggested we were very much on the fringe of the investment world. Charles just can't buy the idea of Cash not earning anything. Long bonds scare him to death. Also he can'...