Search found 253 matches

by modeljc
Wed Jan 22, 2014 9:22 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Wade Pfau's stock market drops > 50% in inflation-adjusted terms - 20 countries
Replies: 11
Views: 6470

Re: Wade Pfau's stock market drops > 50% in inflation-adjusted terms - 20 countries

Wow. Even a PP investor would have been decimated in quite a few occurrences, with almost only his gold left. Must be pretty hard to rebalance in those circumstances. Your bonds & stocks lost 90% and 95% of their respective values ? Why don't you sell 3/4 of your gold to buy some more ? Craig, isn'...
by modeljc
Mon Jan 13, 2014 5:01 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: 2014 low price of TLT
Replies: 5
Views: 3142

Re: 2014 low price of TLT

This poll failed.  Only 18 votes.  The winning asset poll for 2014 got 59 votes.  Taking from the winning asset poll and applying the % for TLT.

4 members that thinks TLT will be up from 2% to 22%.  And 3 members think it will be down 6% to 18%
by modeljc
Sat Jan 11, 2014 2:39 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: TIPS held to maturity as "bottom" of cash component?
Replies: 69
Views: 32930

Re: TIPS held to maturity as "bottom" of cash component?

fnord123 wrote: WIW and WIA both invest up to 40% of their funds in non-US gov't stuff.  WIW even invests in stuff that is below investment grade.  As such, these seem to be more appropriate for the VP than the PP.
My site says 77% is in US tips.  Yes I bought it for the VP.
by modeljc
Sat Jan 11, 2014 12:14 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: TIPS held to maturity as "bottom" of cash component?
Replies: 69
Views: 32930

Re: TIPS held to maturity as "bottom" of cash component?

I never implemented this, mostly because I found additional ways to buy I-Bonds (in child's name + in a living trust). When my current high yielding (sad when ~3% is high yielding) CDs run out in 2015, which currently are the bottom of my cash component and have a similar role as TIPS were proposed...
by modeljc
Tue Jan 07, 2014 8:03 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent Portfolio 2013 Results.
Replies: 40
Views: 13709

Re: Permanent Portfolio 2013 Results.

Saxo's balanced portfolio turned in a similar result (-2.9 %) to the PP. http://www.tradingfloor.com/posts/global-beta-29-percent-loss-2013-books-closed-605844721 You'll recall that it's based on a macro model like the the PP but uses a more complex engineered asset mix.  The most obvious point of ...
by modeljc
Mon Jan 06, 2014 3:35 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Free Decision Moose
Replies: 5
Views: 1739

Re: Free Decision Moose

Decision Moose is free for today and I would recommend looking at it while you can. He has a very good long term track record and has added a new twist as well. http://www.decisionmoose.com/Moosecalls.html I like to chase performance!  The PP is up 45% or 7.8% while DM is up 32.8% or 5.8% over the ...
by modeljc
Sat Jan 04, 2014 7:59 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: 2014 low price of TLT
Replies: 5
Views: 3142

Re: 2014 low price of TLT

dualstow wrote: Ok, I'll say 73.56 which is 72% of today's closing price. Just for funsies.
Hey that the spirit.  Thanks.  The 52 week dividend yield was $3.32.  So that would be a yield of about 4.5% going forward.
by modeljc
Fri Jan 03, 2014 5:26 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: 2014 low price of TLT
Replies: 5
Views: 3142

Re: 2014 low price of TLT

I just bumped this!  Wow, nobody has a view?  Can i just get 100 views?  Maybe this can't be predicted so why have a view.

 
by modeljc
Fri Jan 03, 2014 3:31 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold and Inflation
Replies: 18
Views: 8471

Re: Gold and Inflation

Maybe not so much negative real interest rates but falling real interest rates. The closer they get to negative, the higher gold seems to go. http://snbchf.snbchfcom.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Real-Interest-Rates-vs.-Gold-Price.jpg PS nice chart!  Is there a way to get it up to date ...
by modeljc
Sun Dec 29, 2013 10:46 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: 2014 low price of TLT
Replies: 5
Views: 3142

2014 low price of TLT

A poll just for fun.  What will be the lowest price for TLT in 2014?
by modeljc
Sat Dec 21, 2013 8:23 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: What Happened to PP in 2013?
Replies: 24
Views: 8865

Re: What Happened to PP in 2013?

MediumTex wrote: Several prior years of outperformance and a mean reversion in 2013.
I have the PP average return at 7.3% over the last four years and my Bogey at 5.3% REAL!  Craig taught me that I can be happy with a 3.0% real return and I am happy.
by modeljc
Sun Dec 15, 2013 1:29 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Structural Dynamic Allocation using Modified HBPP
Replies: 16
Views: 5927

Re: Structural Dynamic Allocation using Modified HBPP

I would be interested in what the experts on this board think of their research and if their strategy might help some of the "nervous hands" out there stay the course with Harry's philosophies. IMO. The absolutely biggest threat to an investment portfolio is the investor running it. The psychology ...
by modeljc
Fri Dec 13, 2013 10:04 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Adding a % allocation to Emerging market bonds?
Replies: 5
Views: 2114

Re: Adding a % allocation to Emerging market bonds?

I am not changing the normal PP that I have.  I am interested in the new allocation of the Saxo Bank and wonder if it will be a winner.  I will be following it on paper only.  I am sorry I did not make that clear. 
by modeljc
Wed Dec 11, 2013 9:15 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Adding a % allocation to Emerging market bonds?
Replies: 5
Views: 2114

Re: Adding a % allocation to Emerging market bonds?

Ad Orientem wrote: Foreign bonds are strictly Variable Portfolio stuff.
I agree. BUT Ray Dalio ALL WEATHER Portfolio is all the rage NOW!  The Saxo Bank is trying to match it.  Only time will tell.  My guess is that it is not predictable.   
by modeljc
Wed Dec 11, 2013 3:50 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Adding a % allocation to Emerging market bonds?
Replies: 5
Views: 2114

Adding a % allocation to Emerging market bonds?

Saxo Bank with the New Global Beta Portfolio has an 12.5% target for Emerging Market bonds.  They use the ETF:  EMB Check out the closed end fund AWF.  https://www.alliancebernstein.com/abcom/Product_Center/3_Vehicle/MF/ClosedEnd/AllianceBernstein_Global_High_Income.htm This link does not look at it...
by modeljc
Wed Dec 11, 2013 12:34 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Why Dollar is King despite printing $1 Trillion a year
Replies: 16
Views: 4356

Re: Why Dollar is King despite printing $1 Trillion a year

TennPaGa wrote: The title of the article is:

Why the Dollar Dominates, and Why That's Not All Good
The title is: Why Dollar is King Despite U.S. Woes
by modeljc
Wed Dec 11, 2013 12:01 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Why Dollar is King despite printing $1 Trillion a year
Replies: 16
Views: 4356

Re: Why Dollar is King despite printing $1 Trillion a year

Ad Orientem wrote: Is there a link to the article?
I could not get the link to work.  Google will bring it up.  The article was in Wall Street Journal on A 4, Thursday December 5, 2013.
by modeljc
Wed Dec 11, 2013 10:37 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Why Dollar is King despite printing $1 Trillion a year
Replies: 16
Views: 4356

Why Dollar is King despite printing $1 Trillion a year

Good Article from the Wall Street Journal by David Wessel: The U.S. was the epicenter of the worst financial crisis in 75 years. Its central bank is printing money at a rate of $1 trillion a year. Its government debt load is huge and its political system is visibly dysfunctional. It represents a shr...
by modeljc
Sat Dec 07, 2013 9:39 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Stock portion of PP
Replies: 15
Views: 5557

Re: Stock portion of PP

I have several PPs in separate accounts, so using small-caps instead of a total market fund will be in only one of them, sort of as an experiment. As for the backtest, here's one: http://i.imgur.com/iT99Gq9.png Interestingly enough, in my backtests with the SCV-PP, the one thing I've discovered tha...
by modeljc
Sat Dec 07, 2013 5:32 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Stock portion of PP
Replies: 15
Views: 5557

Re: Stock portion of PP

I am planning to sell off stocks in my taxable PP soon to help pay for a large purchase and plan to replace it with VBR (small-cap value). What percent of your stock allocation will you put in small cap value?  For even more fun (and volatility), you could add some emerging markets equity. Also add...
by modeljc
Sat Dec 07, 2013 3:07 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Stock portion of PP
Replies: 15
Views: 5557

Re: Stock portion of PP

Pointedstick wrote: I am planning to sell off stocks in my taxable PP soon to help pay for a large purchase and plan to replace it with VBR (small-cap value).
Pointedstick have you been able to back test this for 10 years or so?  I would be interested in knowing what you think the improved return would be.
by modeljc
Fri Dec 06, 2013 11:13 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Stock portion of PP
Replies: 15
Views: 5557

Re: Stock portion of PP

Pointedstick wrote: I am planning to sell off stocks in my taxable PP soon to help pay for a large purchase and plan to replace it with VBR (small-cap value).
S&P Mid Cap 400 SPDRS or MDY might work also.
by modeljc
Thu Nov 28, 2013 8:49 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Doom, Gloom and Zoom Zoom
Replies: 18
Views: 7150

Re: Doom, Gloom and Zoom Zoom

Thanks for the tip on weighlifting.  I'm only 47, but I remember my physician father recommending to start weightlifting at least by 55 to limit muscle loss.  I started a few months ago, to go along with the jogging which I've always done.  I hate most of the weightlifting, but what you said about ...
by modeljc
Wed Nov 27, 2013 6:52 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Doom, Gloom and Zoom Zoom
Replies: 18
Views: 7150

Re: Doom, Gloom and Zoom Zoom

Budd is the man to give you help.  I think he is lifting more that his body weight.  For me I own a Cybex gym for over 20 years.  I like to be able to see my little fellow so I do 5 Abs programs.  I Think Budd will tell you to work on the legs.  As that is the major part to think about.  I don't do ...
by modeljc
Wed Nov 27, 2013 4:35 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Doom, Gloom and Zoom Zoom
Replies: 18
Views: 7150

Re: Doom, Gloom and Zoom Zoom

As a personal note, I do recommend weight lifting for all seniors over 60 years of age.  It a lot cheaper than buying LONG TERM NURSING CARE.  It gives you the best chance to be able to stay in your own home until you die.  You won't build much muscle but you can look good and maintain a whole lot o...