Search found 184 matches

by modeljc
Thu Dec 13, 2012 3:54 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How much Stock for a Retired Person by AAII?
Replies: 2
Views: 1154

How much Stock for a Retired Person by AAII?

Anyone willing to consider the concept of an Expanded Portfolio?

http://www.aaii.com/asset-allocation/ar ... t-the-mold
by modeljc
Fri Jun 08, 2012 4:24 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Chart: Total Real Return - Permanent Portfolio vs S&P 500
Replies: 24
Views: 10809

Re: Chart: Total Real Return - Permanent Portfolio vs S&P 500

Gumby,

Wow!  That chart is a lot of good work.  Thank you so much.  Please check me on this but the quick look is that PP did approx. 4.6% real and the S&P 500 did 5.2% real over 41 years!  I did pass this chart around to a new married friend and to my three children. 

 
by modeljc
Sat May 26, 2012 2:17 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Why the PP works
Replies: 3
Views: 2123

Re: Why the PP works

Clive, Just a quick look, but did you find a black hole?  Silver did a number of down years and I wonder if you looked at an annual rebalance and what the result would do to the averages.  Also it looks like you would have been a winner during the great Depression in the 1930's with all your monies ...
by modeljc
Tue May 15, 2012 4:52 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: I'm Done!
Replies: 327
Views: 79387

Re: I'm Done!

Clive

The table that goes back to 1929 has Inf in it.  What asset class is Inf?
by modeljc
Mon May 14, 2012 6:55 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: I'm Done!
Replies: 327
Views: 79387

Re: I'm Done!

Clive, is there any method not to run out of money in retirement? The 3X products may have some DECAY?  Only Clive or Wonk or maybe others could offer a guess as to what the decay may be over long time periods.  But assume you are in the withdrawal state for maybe 12 years plus 4 years in long-term ...
by modeljc
Mon Feb 20, 2012 1:07 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Lending out Your PP Securities
Replies: 2
Views: 1341

Lending out Your PP Securities

Interactive Brokers is offering to split the lending fee with their customers.  The split is 50%.  They will not lend out your securities unless you sign on to the program.  It is my understanding most Brokers lend out your securties if you have a margin account and do not require your approval.  An...
by modeljc
Fri Feb 17, 2012 2:14 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 576
Views: 182080

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

Lone Wolf, Wow, how'd that happen?  30-year rates were up something like 200 basis points in 1981.  I'd have thought that would bring on a large enough capital loss to surely keep LT's negative in '81. I don't remember the exact details but my boss retired with 100% of his money in tax free Munis.  ...
by modeljc
Thu Feb 16, 2012 6:30 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 576
Views: 182080

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

Clive, I think you may on your way to building a super brick Sh*t house in Arkansas.  I would love to have 75% in cash and only have 8.3% in BGU and 8.3% in TMF and 8.3 in UGLD if it would do one time PP. I was going to post this on the thread that Medium Tex started by asking will there be another ...
by modeljc
Thu Feb 16, 2012 12:40 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 576
Views: 182080

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

Wonk,

On a collective portfolio I got the same numbers that you did: 1X=4.03, 2X=7.3 & 3X=10.1. WOW!  I probably will never understand why this tracks.
by modeljc
Thu Feb 16, 2012 10:01 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 576
Views: 182080

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

Wonk, I went to Yahoo Historical prices.  I looked at the period Oct. 17, 2011 to Feb. 15, 2012.  GLD was 162.62 and went to 168.11 for a 3.3% increase.  UGL was 92.24 and went to 95.81 for a 3.9% increase.  UGLD was 50.10 and went to 51.38 for a 2.6% increase.  The 3/ product UGLD should be up 9.9%...
by modeljc
Wed Feb 15, 2012 4:39 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Back testing tool for ETF
Replies: 2
Views: 2312

Back testing tool for ETF

This is a free site for a limited amount of testing.  http://www.etfreplay.com/combine.aspx
by modeljc
Wed Feb 15, 2012 2:39 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 576
Views: 182080

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

The follwoing link warns of Leverage Trap for 2X and 3X products .  Several other sites also say that the volativity is what kills the returns over longer periods.  http://kidgas.hubpages.com/hub/BewareLe ... oxicAssets