Search found 187 matches

by modeljc
Sun Nov 24, 2013 1:50 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: GTU
Replies: 20
Views: 7489

Re: GTU

I looked at the GTU web site and can't find out how they audit the physical gold.  Do they spot check or do they count their entire holdings? Any link or information will be appreciated. Per the latest long form prospectus (page 9): 5. The gold bullion held in storage on behalf of Gold-Trust shall ...
by modeljc
Sun Nov 24, 2013 10:24 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: GTU
Replies: 20
Views: 7489

Re: GTU

I looked at the GTU web site and can't find out how they audit the physical gold.  Do they spot check or do they count their entire holdings?

Any link or information will be appreciated.
by modeljc
Fri Nov 22, 2013 4:51 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: GTU
Replies: 20
Views: 7489

Re: GTU

GTU has been selling at a discount ever since the big gold drop in April.  The discount doesn't seem to be getting any less even with the price increase over the last two months. I've been waiting for the discount to decrease, or go back to a premium, so I can sell and buy some physical gold. Does ...
by modeljc
Fri Nov 22, 2013 3:42 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: GTU
Replies: 20
Views: 7489

Re: GTU

GTU selling for the biggest discount I can remember or -7.55%.  Seems like a good deal if you have a loss in GLD and then pick up the discount plus a little tax loss!  Or to re balance your position.  The discount is probably there as the market believes that gold will break to new lows?
by modeljc
Fri Sep 13, 2013 1:47 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Buy Price of TLT?
Replies: 12
Views: 4693

Re: Buy Price of TLT?

I have been out of long-term bonds for about 1.5 years, exiting at 3% (TLT was around 117).  I would consider getting back in (slowly) at yields above 4%, or at TLT<100.  There is no particular reason for these entry/exit points, other than gut feelings. Last 12 months of dividends are $3.15.  So T...
by modeljc
Fri Jul 19, 2013 5:17 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: "A Portfolio For All Seasons?"
Replies: 8
Views: 2735

Re: "A Portfolio For All Seasons?"

It's on the front page of the WSJ website today (right-hand side, in "Analysis from MarketWatch" §) Thanks for reporting that.  That's a good article.  Craig's The Man. I tried a post that Craig nailed the word "Bogey" for me.  To my great reality distortion I got about three folks that thought Cra...
by modeljc
Mon Jul 08, 2013 3:00 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: 30 Year Treasury Rate at 2.80%
Replies: 75
Views: 21030

Re: 30 Year Treasury Rate at 2.80%

MediumTex wrote: I think that we will hit 4.25-4.5% on the 30 year before we head back down.
M.T.

What does TLT sell for if we get 4.25% or 4.5%?  I am guessing but does $90.00 sound right?
by modeljc
Tue Jun 25, 2013 3:31 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: What is fair Value for TLT?
Replies: 3
Views: 2277

Re: What is fair Value for TLT?

I have always thought that fair value is a term more often used when one is practicing value investing. The PP is definitely not a value strategy, so if you are actually trying to do the PP I would just follow rebalancing bands. For me to buy TLT I would not need to rebalanced until it hit $79.  Fa...
by modeljc
Tue Jun 25, 2013 2:14 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: What is fair Value for TLT?
Replies: 3
Views: 2277

What is fair Value for TLT?

Using July 1st each year starting in 2002, TLT was 82, 92, 84.59, 93.11, 85.80, 87.66, and 91.67 ending July 1st 2008.  So If you take a simple average for seven years you get $88.11.  The dividends in 2007 appear to be $4.19 or a yield of 4.75%.  I picked these years as they were before all the "Q"...
by modeljc
Wed Apr 17, 2013 2:00 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: MY Fair Value for Gold
Replies: 17
Views: 3985

MY Fair Value for Gold

In 1984 the price of gold was about $372 so if you adjust it for inflation it is $837 for the 29 years or about 2.9% a year using the  CPI.  My best price is the 2.9% is understated by 1% per year so using 3.9% you get a value of $1488. I am long gold and the PP. Anybody else want to suggest a fair ...
by modeljc
Sat Mar 16, 2013 12:09 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Tilting
Replies: 33
Views: 7870

Re: Tilting

AgAu,

I did find this article and it seems to be a starting place.  The chart is interesting.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1250381 ... down-xxxvi
by modeljc
Sat Mar 16, 2013 11:46 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Tilting
Replies: 33
Views: 7870

Re: Tilting

[quote="AgAuMoney"] You can download David Fish's spreadsheet (or PDF) from the Tools section on DripInvesting dot org. AgAu, Very nice spreadsheet!  Thanks!  I am working with my son-in law and we would be interested in three or four of the best sorts to get this list down to let's go to work and f...