ochotona wrote:No change to the portfolio for May 2018. Still in 81% SCHF + 19% SCHE, or 100% in VEU.

Thanks! When I look at the charts lines cross but still no change. I guess they can cross back.

ochotona wrote:Back to the GEM portfolio: no change to the portfolio for March 2018. Still in 81% SCHF + 19% SCHE, or 100% in VEU.

Thanks for the update!

Ray Dalio getting his mind RIGHT:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11- ... est-holder

25% here. Did a early (less than 35%) re balanced December of 2016 and 2017.

Best wishes. I think there will be more and better trendfollowing products in coming years, especially after the next crash. Ironically, that will be the time when they are least needed. HBPP popularity will also be surging. I want to THANK you for the link of the Portfolio Visualize. I have been t...

AlphaArchitect will also run the GEM strategy for you, by the way. They license a proprietary version from Gary Antonacci. They can be reached at AlphaArchitect.com, of course. I had my money with them for a while, but I got bored I suppose, I had to pull it back to Schwab and run it myself. It did...

If you simulate the GEM at PortfolioVisualizer.com, you can go back into the 1980s with old mutual funds, you can get a sense of the whippiness. Yes, Winter of 2015 - 2016 was frustrating, for sure. And GEM is much less whippy than 200 day moving average. But it does deliver over time. Thanks. I be...

I read the GEM approach with interest. Any way to check the number of WIPSAWS over the 45 year backtest? It looked like 2015 was nothing but false trades. It does seem that being in the right asset class make up for the wipsaws and also makes up for being late in and late out.

I looking at returns form April 16, 2009 using WONK 15% SPXL, 15% TMF, 45% physical gold or GLD, and 25% SHY. Looks like CARP of 19%. You may be moving on! But I don't get the reasoning! Most of us would die to get these returns. quote="Kbg"]Hi all, I thought I would post to let folks know...

You Can't convince ANYONE!

https://gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/v ... eves+in+PP

How does it back test for 40 years?

Wonk,

I got just one more question. Since you are buying the 45% Physical gold what re-balance band are you using. And what band do you use for the Spxl and the TMF?

Thanks! I like your post on reducing risk!!

Wonk,

Like thinking forward also about a Golden Butterfly approach. If you want 20% invested in Real Estate and you want to be passive can you suggest a High cap approach not helded directly?

I still playing on Paper. Hope both KBG & Wonk will keep posting. Even if it is Annual or Quarterly.

Anybody out there that wants to make a market CALL?

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dsh ... the-market

I use 50% bands as in .5 or 1.5x of whatever the allocation percentage is. So using my smallest XIV the bands would be 2.5 and 7.5 while the cash portion would be 22.5 and 67.while 16.66% would be 8.33 and 24.99. My method is as follows: Hit band...start watching When the asset appears to be leveli...

So here's something I watch closely. In fact, besides decay closer than anything else. Does the leveraged PP pull away from a pure SPY portfolio when the market is going down. It better well or why the heck would anyone do this? Why, because these are exactly the times when we expect the leveraged ...

I joined the forum in 2010 after discovering the famous thread on BH forum with lots of gems from Craig and MT. Initially I had 50% in pure PP in IRAs and taxable and another 50% in a PP-like portfolio in my 401k. Some of you might remember my whining about bad 401k with no gold, no LTTs, and a sol...

It's always a little bittersweet when gold and bonds are strengthening. I'm currently overweight both in my long and slow transition from PP to semi-GB. Days like today feel pretty good in my brokerage account, but at what cost? I really hope peace prevails. Would be interested in what GB per cent ...

A picture is worth a thousand words... A variable chart is worth a thousand pictures...I think a great place to suggest to "seekers" is to send them to Tyler's excellent portfoliocharts.com site and let them play with the various portfolios or plug in what they are now doing and see how t...

This post isn't about the Permanent Portfolio so much as active vs. passive investing, which most of the posts in this thread (and many others) are really about. My brother has long been a staunch believer in market timing with stocks as the best way to invest. He's also become increasingly busy, b...

Given the big run-up in stocks over the last 8 years (and bonds too), most investors aren't really worrying about risk right now. Investing has fashions like everything else in human affairs. Me, I worry all the time :) so when all the assets move in the same direction as they have been every time ...

Even if you add 17 Billion invested in Permanent Portfolio (PRPFX) and 60 Billion in Ray Dalio Bridgewater Assoc. All Weather portfolio you still can't find many who Believe in the Permanent Portfolio. Also the Dalio All Weather is not a pure Permanent Portfolio and PRPFX is not very close either. T...

It was not good. Real money -10% for me and IIRC 16-18% Max DD. Flat markets are awful using 3x ETFs (as advertised). The astute readers will notice how drag differs with rebalance period and market type for that year. Thanks! That was with 50% SHY! Might be a look into the future if PP get funny.

Friction Update Year 1x 3xAnn 3xQtr LevAnn LevQtr 2012 20.85 37.35 31.99 1.79 1.53 2013 14.18 27.04 19.55 1.91 1.38 2014 17.32 27.78 30.03 1.60 1.73 2015 06.81 05.5 10.46 0.81 1.54 2016 09.81 15.74 19.59 1.60 2.00 2017 03.19 5.89 6.71 1.85 2.10 Sorry...this pretty much sucks as a table, maybe one d...