Search found 173 matches

by modeljc
Fri Jun 14, 2019 10:25 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 3 years of PP returns
Replies: 25
Views: 3708

Re: 3 years of PP returns

Real is real, that’s why we use it and not nominal. "Shilling notes that U.S. inflation numbers don’t register the full impact of falling prices because the Bureau of Labor Statistics has not kept up with the explosion of new technology products." The goverment can't measure inflation but deflation...
by modeljc
Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:21 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 3 years of PP returns
Replies: 25
Views: 3708

Re: 3 years of PP returns

Real is real, that’s why we use it and not nominal. "Shilling notes that U.S. inflation numbers don’t register the full impact of falling prices because the Bureau of Labor Statistics has not kept up with the explosion of new technology products." The goverment can't measure inflation but deflation...
by modeljc
Wed Jun 12, 2019 5:16 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 3 years of PP returns
Replies: 25
Views: 3708

Re: 3 years of PP returns

No one is picking up on we may be OK with recent PP returns if DEFLATION has started.

https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2019/02/16 ... 0512161205
by modeljc
Tue Jun 11, 2019 4:11 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 3 years of PP returns
Replies: 25
Views: 3708

Re: 3 years of PP returns

In 47 years the PP has made plus 3% REAL 77% of the time using a 3 year rolling average. 11 years or 23% they have made less. Here are the 11 years: 1977 2.8% 1990 1.1% 1994 2.1% 2000 2.6% 2001 .2% 2002 2.3% 2008 2.8% 2014 2.9% 2015 1.5% 2017 2.6% 2018 2.8% These numbers are from a friend and not fr...
by modeljc
Sun Jun 09, 2019 5:43 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 3 years of PP returns
Replies: 25
Views: 3708

Re: 3 years of PP returns

Agreed, three years is too short of a timeframe from which to judge the PP. As has been noted in discussions on this forum over the years, the PP can have (and actually has had, once or twice) negative returns for rolling time windows of up to about three years. If I recall, there are very few port...
by modeljc
Sat Jun 08, 2019 6:31 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 3 years of PP returns
Replies: 25
Views: 3708

3 years of PP returns

PP Returns:

Last 12 months 6.6%

Last 24 months 4.8%

Last 36 months 4.9%

YTD 7.9%

If you take out inflation of 2% or so these returns appear to be about 1% or 2% LOW vs history.

If we have had actual DEFLATION of 1% maybe we are OK?

Anybody Happy?
by modeljc
Thu Apr 18, 2019 5:03 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: bud split
Replies: 11
Views: 984

Re: The GOLD scream room

Budd had about 2000 posts. I remember a lot of hand holding from med tex and craig. Nobody on this board has had more support from others. When you have had this high level of support and want to be banned it is OK by me.
by modeljc
Tue Apr 16, 2019 4:31 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 2623
Views: 511110

Re: The GOLD scream room

You know the rest...junk! No matter what anyone tells you avoid Au like the plague. PP not much better at all. Thank god I reduced my allocation to the assets that go no where but down. Where’s ugly_bird? Seems he deleted his post. For his benefit, stocks are + ~20% YTD and precious gold is negativ...
by modeljc
Tue Apr 16, 2019 2:05 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 2623
Views: 511110

Re: The GOLD scream room

You know the rest...junk! No matter what anyone tells you avoid Au like the plague. PP not much better at all. Thank god I reduced my allocation to the assets that go no where but down. Where’s ugly_bird? Seems he deleted his post. For his benefit, stocks are + ~20% YTD and precious gold is negativ...
by modeljc
Sat Dec 29, 2018 5:41 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Replies: 403
Views: 98341

Re: Dual Momentum GEM + HBPP a great combo, easy to test

No big bounce to 2674. Looks like I'm selling Monday. It has been a good run since 4/2016. My port will be about 10% gold, 12% cash, 5% equities, the rest 2-7 year T-Notes. Big bet placed on the US Treasury! Like to hear how many trades and what did you NET over a buy and hold 100% SPY. In other wo...
by modeljc
Sat Dec 29, 2018 1:03 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Replies: 403
Views: 98341

Re: Dual Momentum GEM + HBPP a great combo, easy to test

No big bounce to 2674. Looks like I'm selling Monday. It has been a good run since 4/2016. My port will be about 10% gold, 12% cash, 5% equities, the rest 2-7 year T-Notes. Big bet placed on the US Treasury! Like to hear how many trades and what did you NET over a buy and hold 100% SPY. In other wo...
by modeljc
Wed Dec 26, 2018 9:31 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Worst investing year ever...
Replies: 59
Views: 13591

Re: Worst investing year ever...

Merry Christmas - target allocation is 35/15/15/35. A little more prosperity and cash, a little less gold and LTT’s. I think I can follow this allocation without much regret. Merry Christmas. Thanks If I was a little younger I would go at least 40% prosperity as cash does not return full value a lo...