Search found 1052 matches

by Gosso
Thu Nov 20, 2014 7:56 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth
Replies: 51
Views: 12825

Re: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth

Here's an article from Bloomberg regarding the aluminum merry-go-round:  http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-11-20/the-goldman-sachs-aluminum-conspiracy-was-pretty-silly After reading that I was reminded of Hanlon's razor : "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stup...
by Gosso
Thu Nov 20, 2014 4:14 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth
Replies: 51
Views: 12825

Re: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth

More hard evidence of large banks manipulating commodities -  this time from a US senate report naming JP Morgan, Goldman-Sachs and others:   http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/11/19/senate-report-criticizes-goldman-and-jpmorgan-over-their-roles-in-commodities-market/   http://www.zerohedge.com/news/...
by Gosso
Fri Nov 14, 2014 4:53 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth
Replies: 51
Views: 12825

Re: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth

I was just reading through Jesse Livermore's Reminiscences of a Stock Operator and came across this passage, which made me think of all the claims of market manipualtion in the gold market: As I have said a thousand times, no manipulation can put stocks down and keep them down. There is nothing myst...
by Gosso
Thu Nov 13, 2014 3:56 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: CAGR over time
Replies: 10
Views: 1833

Re: CAGR over time

Here's the rolling real CAGR:

[img width=500]http://i61.tinypic.com/jzb61e.png[/img]
by Gosso
Sat Nov 08, 2014 8:56 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Great new diet idea
Replies: 2
Views: 1211

Re: Great new diet idea

For years I had to annoyingly crush the Doritos into the Mountain Dew bottle, well, no more!  Problem solved!

http://time.com/3573045/doritos-flavore ... pocalypse/
by Gosso
Sat Nov 08, 2014 8:37 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Asset Volatility Question
Replies: 11
Views: 2425

Re: Asset Volatility Question

Fun thread. Great chart Gosso! Just one thing...how is the pain/gain ratio calculated?  Interestingly, the 60/40 appears to be very close to the PP or better for almost all the time except some periods in the 1970s.  I imagine that's the eras when gold was skyrocketing.  That's a bit counterintuitiv...
by Gosso
Fri Nov 07, 2014 11:24 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Asset Volatility Question
Replies: 11
Views: 2425

Re: Asset Volatility Question

The gain to pain ratio shows that the PP has had a tough couple of years, while the 60/40 has enjoyed much happiness.  The chart below shows the gain to pain ratio measured over two year rolling periods (the higher the G/P the better).  It's pretty interesting - I bet it would be a leading indicator...
by Gosso
Fri Nov 07, 2014 8:16 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Curve Fitted Back Testing
Replies: 11
Views: 1827

Re: Curve Fitted Back Testing

Gosso, Can you please explain this further? Does it mean that for every down month in the PP, there are 1.65 up months? Real or nominal? Thanks. You're close, it also measures the magnitudes of the positive months vs negative months.  The numbers I used were inflation-adjusted (real), from Jan-1972...
by Gosso
Thu Nov 06, 2014 5:51 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Curve Fitted Back Testing
Replies: 11
Views: 1827

Re: Curve Fitted Back Testing

Use a "learning" data set and a "testing" data set.  That is, fit your model to some subset of the data, and then look at how the predictions work on the rest of the data.  For example, if you have 10 years worth of data, fit parameters based on the first 7 years, and see how those parameters work ...
by Gosso
Wed Nov 05, 2014 8:35 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 130 Years of 60/40
Replies: 8
Views: 2901

Re: 130 Years of 60/40

I posted this quote from William Bernstein on the 60:30:10 thread, but I think it's relevant to this discussion as well. Since it was illegal to own gold until 1975 I'd suggest running your numbers starting in 1980; you'll get quite different results. It was illegal to own physical gold, but it was...
by Gosso
Thu Oct 09, 2014 7:30 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 130 Years of 60/40
Replies: 8
Views: 2901

Re: 130 Years of 60/40

It is obvious to me that gold smooths out the rough periods for stocks and bonds (at least when gold is allowed to freely float).

Image

It is basic math.  The PP wins.
by Gosso
Thu Oct 09, 2014 7:21 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: YouTube Junkie
Replies: 616
Views: 114565

Re: YouTube Junkie

Anyone with an interest in sailing must check our "White Spot Pirates": https://www.youtube.com/user/WhiteSpotPirates

Not only is she a cute german gal, but she has more balls than most of us.