Search found 173 matches

by ozzy
Sat Sep 24, 2022 10:56 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 2817

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Here's a good visual illustration of the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio historical returns going back to 1928. It's down -19.3% YTD. Its turning out to be the worst year since 1937. There's really no portfolio to hide in this year. If you keep your money in cash you're still losing to inflation. 2022 ha...
by ozzy
Wed Sep 07, 2022 11:53 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 2817

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Here's the PV link to the vanilla PP Annual Returns going back to 1978. You'll see 2022 is the worst year (so far YTD). If you click on the "Drawdowns" tab, you'll see 2022 is the worst drawdown since 2008. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=1&timePeriod=4&s...
by ozzy
Wed Sep 07, 2022 10:52 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 101
Views: 2817

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

The PP is definitely having its worst draw-down since year 2008. But so is the 60/40 Boglehead portfolio. And so is just about every other portfolio. There's nowhere to hide.

This current era reminds me of the old saying "May you live in interesting times". ;)
by ozzy
Thu Aug 11, 2022 11:51 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 259
Views: 171430

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

My leveraged PP consists of 40% UPRO, 30% UBT, 30% UGL. Rebalanced yearly. So far YTD (as of 7/31/22) it's down -30.92%. Although that does suck, if you zoom out, the 3-year annualized return is 25.58%. 5-year annualized return is 23.24%. Not too shabby, but it's definitely a roller coaster ride. Ev...
by ozzy
Mon Jan 03, 2022 11:29 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: My Juicy PP returned 11% for Year 2021
Replies: 1
Views: 615

My Juicy PP returned 11% for Year 2021

Happy New Year,

My Juicy PP returned 11.03% for year 2021.

I updated my website with the returns: http://www.tightwadweb.com/customportfolio.html

Take care.
by ozzy
Sat Jan 01, 2022 11:00 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 259
Views: 171430

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Happy New Year all, Year 2021 returns for my leveraged PP is 32.09%. My leveraged PP is: 40% UPRO, 30% UBT, 30% UGL. Its approximately 2.3x leverage overall. Here's the PortfolioVisualizer link: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=2011&firstMonth=1&endYe...
by ozzy
Fri Oct 08, 2021 8:47 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Florida?
Replies: 9
Views: 1490

Re: Florida?

In 2014 I moved from Illinois to Florida. One of the best decisions of my life. I love it here. I even picked up a wife down here :)

For anyone considering moving here, I agree with FlyingPylon, try it out first (rent) to see if its right for you.
by ozzy
Thu Sep 02, 2021 5:52 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Physical gold or ETF for my IRA?
Replies: 35
Views: 16791

Re: Physical gold or ETF for my IRA?

I created this post 10 years ago. I ended up owning both physical gold and ETF (IAU).

Vinny - buy a few buffalo coins, trust me, it's a great feeling.
by ozzy
Wed Jan 06, 2021 4:56 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 259
Views: 171430

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

TruDrew - welcome to the forum. There's no doubt using options to build a leveraged PP would be much more efficient, albeit complex. Yes, there can be serious negative decay with the ETFs at times. For example, my 2.3x leveraged PP (40% UPRO, 30% UBT, 30% UGL) returned 25.30% for year 2020. However,...
by ozzy
Fri Jan 01, 2021 10:13 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: My Juicy PP returned 20% for Year 2020
Replies: 0
Views: 1249

My Juicy PP returned 20% for Year 2020

Happy New Year all! My Juicy PP returned exactly 20.00% for year 2020. I'm very pleased. I added some long-term TIPS (LTPZ) and momentum fund (MTUM) for additional bond protection and potential stock growth. I updated my website with the Year 2020 returns: http://www.tightwadweb.com/customportfolio....
by ozzy
Fri Jan 01, 2021 9:30 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 259
Views: 171430

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Happy New Year all, My leveraged PP returned 25.30% for year 2020. It consists of 40% UPRO, 30% UBT, 30% UGL. This equates to approximately 2.3x leveraged. The URL below shows CAGR for the past 10 years is 19.27%. Rebalance yearly. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePerio...
by ozzy
Sun Nov 08, 2020 7:20 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 259
Views: 171430

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

I swapped out my TMF for UBT to reduce bond leverage. Now my leveraged PP is: 40% UPRO, 30% UBT, 30% UGL. This puts me at approximately 2.3x leverage overall.
by ozzy
Sun Oct 11, 2020 3:21 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 259
Views: 171430

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

mrbk2fi - You can track the allocation here: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPerce...
by ozzy
Thu Oct 08, 2020 7:42 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Long Term Tips YTD return
Replies: 10
Views: 4724

Re: Long Term Tips YTD return

Good question. The link shows "US Mkt Correlation" for TLT provides slightly more stock market crash protection. Other than that, I don't believe you're losing much. I'm not ready to go whole-hog into LTPZ, but I'm willing to go half-hog. I bought some LTPZ yesterday and its up +1.12% today. So far ...
by ozzy
Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:41 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Long Term Tips YTD return
Replies: 10
Views: 4724

Re: Long Term Tips YTD return

In the past 10 years, LT Treasuries (TLT) have performed very similarly to LT TIPS (LTPZ). See link below, only a ~1% difference in CAGR. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=fals...
by ozzy
Wed Aug 19, 2020 6:52 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 259
Views: 171430

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Var - do your own UBT? Can you confirm it imploded? I don't see any evidence. According to Morningstar, as of 8/18/20, its up 41% YTD: https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/ubt/performance
by ozzy
Mon Jun 22, 2020 8:01 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 259
Views: 171430

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Houston, we have a problem. UGLD is being de-listed, see article here: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/credit-suisse-ag-announces-its-intent-to-delist-and-suspend-further-issuances-of-its-velocityshares-etns-301080971.html This is a real bummer. I've owned UGLD since 2014 and made good mone...
by ozzy
Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:52 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Stay cool...
Replies: 40
Views: 13596

Re: Stay cool...

Yes indeed, thank you Craig (and Harry). I've implemented my PP variant (Juicy PP) years back and its keep my returns consistent. I sleep good at night with a hands-off passive portfolio that can endure any economic condition.

I also enjoyed your excellent book. Take care my friend.
by ozzy
Mon Jan 06, 2020 6:37 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 259
Views: 171430

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Var - correct. I prefer the simple hands-off approach. Same allocation (45% UPRO, 35% TMF, 20% UGLD), rebalance yearly. The less I tinker the better. Its a roller coaster ride, but I only keep a portion of my net worth in the Leveraged PP.
by ozzy
Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:37 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2019 Permanent Portfolio Results
Replies: 18
Views: 6703

Re: 2019 Permanent Portfolio Results

Thanks dualstow! He's a standard tabby. Took him in as a stray kitten at 4 weeks old. He's been a real blessing in my life.
by ozzy
Fri Jan 03, 2020 8:28 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 259
Views: 171430

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Hi all,

My 2019 leveraged PP results are in. I implemented this 5 years ago and have gotten a 14.93% CAGR. I rebalance yearly. Last year was spectacular, a whopping 67.71%! Here's a 5 year screenshot: http://www.tightwadweb.com/3x2019.jpg

Take care.
-Ozzy
by ozzy
Fri Jan 03, 2020 8:06 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2019 Permanent Portfolio Results
Replies: 18
Views: 6703

Re: 2019 Permanent Portfolio Results

Hi all,

My JuicyPP returned 21.43% for 2019! Best year of the decade! I updated my website with the 2019 numbers: http://www.tightwadweb.com/customportfolio.html

Keep America Great! ;)
by ozzy
Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:08 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2018 Results Post Here
Replies: 26
Views: 14218

Re: 2018 Results Post Here

For 2018 my JuicyPP returned -6.68%. It consists of:

Stocks: 55%
LT Bonds: 30%
Gold: 15%
Cash: 0%

http://www.tightwadweb.com/customportfolio.html
by ozzy
Fri Jul 20, 2018 10:04 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 259
Views: 171430

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Hi all, adding my 2 cents. My leveraged PP is the following: 45% UPRO 35% TMF 20% UGLD I keep it simple and just rebalance annually. Its returned 22.23% CAGR over the past 5 years (2013-2017), here's a performance screenshot: http://www.tightwadweb.com/3x-2013-2017.jpg So far, the first 6 months of ...
by ozzy
Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:34 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 259
Views: 171430

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Here's a good article released today on combining leveraged and non-leveraged PP assets to increase overall performance. I've been implementing my own version of this for years and its been great:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/414276 ... erage#alt1