Search found 180 matches

by ozzy
Sat Jan 06, 2024 2:57 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 237
Views: 422570

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Happy New Year all, Year 2023 returns for my leveraged PP is 30.98%. Its clawing its way back from the hellish -41.67% Year 2022 return. If interest rates have in fact topped, then bond funds (TLT, UBT) may have bottomed. Here's the PortfolioVisualizer link to my leveraged PP: https://www.portfoliov...
by ozzy
Sun Feb 12, 2023 9:07 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Gardens
Replies: 9
Views: 1572

Re: Gardens

Yup, tobacco is easy to grow, here's some of mine from last year.
by ozzy
Sat Feb 11, 2023 6:28 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Gardens
Replies: 9
Views: 1572

Re: Gardens

I live in FL and grow year-round on my 1 acre homestead. Tomatoes, melons, lettuce, beans, broccoli, sunflowers, tobacco, peanuts. Plus I have a small orchard fruit trees: peach, fig, alvacado, citrus, plums, ect. Gardening is a great hobby. I also have 6 chickens. I eat 3 fresh eggs every morning f...
by ozzy
Fri Dec 09, 2022 5:44 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Doug Casey talks about meeting with Harry Browne
Replies: 2
Views: 637

Doug Casey talks about meeting with Harry Browne

I was listening to Doug's podcast today and he talks about meeting Harry Browne. Good stuff. Starts at the 53:00min mark.

https://youtu.be/rt5xqJlUHOA
by ozzy
Sun Oct 16, 2022 5:53 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Doug Casey's honorable mention of the PP
Replies: 2
Views: 1239

Doug Casey's honorable mention of the PP

I was just listening to one of my favorite podcasts (Doug Casey's Take) and he mentioned the PP. It starts at the 2:25min mark.

https://youtu.be/iHaHkGFvwMQ
by ozzy
Wed Oct 12, 2022 8:16 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 117
Views: 33484

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

The traditional 60/40 portfolio has gone from bad to worse. Down -21.3% YTD. Worst performance since 1931. Ugh.

https://twitter.com/charliebilello/stat ... 78/photo/1
by ozzy
Sat Sep 24, 2022 10:56 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 117
Views: 33484

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Here's a good visual illustration of the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio historical returns going back to 1928. It's down -19.3% YTD. Its turning out to be the worst year since 1937. There's really no portfolio to hide in this year. If you keep your money in cash you're still losing to inflation. 2022 ha...
by ozzy
Wed Sep 07, 2022 11:53 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 117
Views: 33484

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

Here's the PV link to the vanilla PP Annual Returns going back to 1978. You'll see 2022 is the worst year (so far YTD). If you click on the "Drawdowns" tab, you'll see 2022 is the worst drawdown since 2008. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=1&timePeriod=4&s...
by ozzy
Wed Sep 07, 2022 10:52 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?
Replies: 117
Views: 33484

Re: PP YTD performance - was it the worst ever?

The PP is definitely having its worst draw-down since year 2008. But so is the 60/40 Boglehead portfolio. And so is just about every other portfolio. There's nowhere to hide.

This current era reminds me of the old saying "May you live in interesting times". ;)
by ozzy
Thu Aug 11, 2022 11:51 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 237
Views: 422570

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

My leveraged PP consists of 40% UPRO, 30% UBT, 30% UGL. Rebalanced yearly. So far YTD (as of 7/31/22) it's down -30.92%. Although that does suck, if you zoom out, the 3-year annualized return is 25.58%. 5-year annualized return is 23.24%. Not too shabby, but it's definitely a roller coaster ride. Ev...
by ozzy
Mon Jan 03, 2022 11:29 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: My Juicy PP returned 11% for Year 2021
Replies: 1
Views: 1167

My Juicy PP returned 11% for Year 2021

Happy New Year,

My Juicy PP returned 11.03% for year 2021.

I updated my website with the returns: http://www.tightwadweb.com/customportfolio.html

Take care.
by ozzy
Sat Jan 01, 2022 11:00 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 237
Views: 422570

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Happy New Year all, Year 2021 returns for my leveraged PP is 32.09%. My leveraged PP is: 40% UPRO, 30% UBT, 30% UGL. Its approximately 2.3x leverage overall. Here's the PortfolioVisualizer link: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=2011&firstMonth=1&endYe...
by ozzy
Fri Oct 08, 2021 8:47 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Florida?
Replies: 9
Views: 2248

Re: Florida?

In 2014 I moved from Illinois to Florida. One of the best decisions of my life. I love it here. I even picked up a wife down here :)

For anyone considering moving here, I agree with FlyingPylon, try it out first (rent) to see if its right for you.
by ozzy
Thu Sep 02, 2021 5:52 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Physical gold or ETF for my IRA?
Replies: 35
Views: 20050

Re: Physical gold or ETF for my IRA?

I created this post 10 years ago. I ended up owning both physical gold and ETF (IAU).

Vinny - buy a few buffalo coins, trust me, it's a great feeling.
by ozzy
Wed Jan 06, 2021 4:56 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 237
Views: 422570

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

TruDrew - welcome to the forum. There's no doubt using options to build a leveraged PP would be much more efficient, albeit complex. Yes, there can be serious negative decay with the ETFs at times. For example, my 2.3x leveraged PP (40% UPRO, 30% UBT, 30% UGL) returned 25.30% for year 2020. However,...
by ozzy
Fri Jan 01, 2021 10:13 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: My Juicy PP returned 20% for Year 2020
Replies: 0
Views: 1660

My Juicy PP returned 20% for Year 2020

Happy New Year all! My Juicy PP returned exactly 20.00% for year 2020. I'm very pleased. I added some long-term TIPS (LTPZ) and momentum fund (MTUM) for additional bond protection and potential stock growth. I updated my website with the Year 2020 returns: http://www.tightwadweb.com/customportfolio....
by ozzy
Fri Jan 01, 2021 9:30 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 237
Views: 422570

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Happy New Year all, My leveraged PP returned 25.30% for year 2020. It consists of 40% UPRO, 30% UBT, 30% UGL. This equates to approximately 2.3x leveraged. The URL below shows CAGR for the past 10 years is 19.27%. Rebalance yearly. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePerio...
by ozzy
Sun Nov 08, 2020 7:20 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 237
Views: 422570

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

I swapped out my TMF for UBT to reduce bond leverage. Now my leveraged PP is: 40% UPRO, 30% UBT, 30% UGL. This puts me at approximately 2.3x leverage overall.
by ozzy
Sun Oct 11, 2020 3:21 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 237
Views: 422570

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

mrbk2fi - You can track the allocation here: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPerce...
by ozzy
Thu Oct 08, 2020 7:42 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Long Term Tips YTD return
Replies: 10
Views: 5764

Re: Long Term Tips YTD return

Good question. The link shows "US Mkt Correlation" for TLT provides slightly more stock market crash protection. Other than that, I don't believe you're losing much. I'm not ready to go whole-hog into LTPZ, but I'm willing to go half-hog. I bought some LTPZ yesterday and its up +1.12% today. So far ...
by ozzy
Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:41 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Long Term Tips YTD return
Replies: 10
Views: 5764

Re: Long Term Tips YTD return

In the past 10 years, LT Treasuries (TLT) have performed very similarly to LT TIPS (LTPZ). See link below, only a ~1% difference in CAGR. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=fals...
by ozzy
Wed Aug 19, 2020 6:52 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 237
Views: 422570

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Var - do your own UBT? Can you confirm it imploded? I don't see any evidence. According to Morningstar, as of 8/18/20, its up 41% YTD: https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/ubt/performance
by ozzy
Mon Jun 22, 2020 8:01 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 237
Views: 422570

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Houston, we have a problem. UGLD is being de-listed, see article here: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/credit-suisse-ag-announces-its-intent-to-delist-and-suspend-further-issuances-of-its-velocityshares-etns-301080971.html This is a real bummer. I've owned UGLD since 2014 and made good mone...
by ozzy
Mon Mar 09, 2020 6:52 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Stay cool...
Replies: 39
Views: 18663

Re: Stay cool...

Yes indeed, thank you Craig (and Harry). I've implemented my PP variant (Juicy PP) years back and its keep my returns consistent. I sleep good at night with a hands-off passive portfolio that can endure any economic condition.

I also enjoyed your excellent book. Take care my friend.