If I backtest on portfolio visualizer I see that EDV is closer in Standard Deviation to stocks (I used small and mid cap in my PP) than TLT is. Be careful about using historical volatility data like that. Bond volatility increases as rates fall , so calculating standard deviation using historical n...

PS. That may coincide with the (long?) expected stock bubble burst.. then you will be right on time ;) Ha! Writing a book on defensive asset allocation and sitting on it until the stock market tanks would be a real power play. If you're not in marketing, you should consider it. ;) Yeah, I've though...

I’m not at all trying to imply that they’re not very serious issues that deserve investor attention Do you think it should be “not...that don’t deserve investor attention” —? Maybe not. i guess it depends on where you mentally put the brackets. Good catch! Yeah, the string of negatives kinda got ou...

In related news, one of the Wikipedia co-founders believes it is broken and is working on a new alternative.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... -gone.html

Thanks for the link and top-notch reference, Kevin. And for the kind words, Cortopassi.

But seriously, I Shrugged. YES. Watch it asap.

Good game, right? For those who missed it, here are his highlights from tonight. Be sure to watch to the end.

Luka is amazing. And the crazy thing is that he plays like that all the time. He's a walking highlight reel who just finds ways to win.

Yeah, I assume he meant Kindle Unlimited. The book he was referencing is indeed free for KU subscribers.

Yes, my idea is to drag out foreclosure proceedings for as long as possible (living rent-free in the meantime), then switch from one house to another (maybe buy the house next door) and stick the bank with the loss on the initial home. Because screw the banks! A few initial reactions: 1) If you tru...

Exhibit 7.18 is a graph that looks like the top right quarter of a circle (sort of) with portfolio amount on the y axis and time on the x. The thing I thought really cool (and I wish someone had a website where you could put this in as a financial check) was that you could use the graph annually to...

I do hear ya, Mathjak. We've had the same debates hundreds of times over the years. :) I encourage everyone to read your objections and browse my FAQ where I address them all. Even if we disagree about how to apply certain research, we're in total agreement that it's important to plan conservatively...

But as we discussed the standardized worst case scenarios for stress testing the proverbial 4% swr are all pre 1970.....nothing after 1966 was as bad For the traditional stock/bond blends where those specific worst-case start years apply, the difference between a SWR measured since 1970 and 1870 is...

Does everyone here think these SWRs still hold true in the current climate? ... The part I struggle with is whether it's still valid to model 3-4% return, or SWR/PWR, with rates so low, assets seeming so bubbly, etc. Withdrawal rates are based on worst case scenarios, so they're already way more ba...

Bumping this gem of an old thread about reaching various financial milestones to financial freedom. I was updating my net worth spreadsheet recently and noticed that my net worth (including home equity) is now about 25x my average annual expenses. I can't retire yet under the 4% rule for various re...

Could either Vanguard or Fidelity be questioned as to whether they might lack the requisite financial liquidity? IMO, those are your two best bets. BTW, two interesting things I learned this week are 1) what payment for order flow is, and 2) that neither Vanguard nor Fidelity accept it. I like how ...

I’ll be blunt, if you are with a broker that didn’t put restrictions on GME my strong advice is to move your money somewhere else as quickly as you can. I disagree. Even if one assumes there were no ulterior motives involved, brokerages like Robinhood put restrictions on GME because they lacked the...

With all the increased interest in GME, I figured it was time to write up something bigger than a message board post. Here are a few thoughts, including a large dash of Harry Browne that you guys and gals might appreciate.

How to Play the Game and Live to Tell the Tale

Politicians on the right and left (AOC, Ted Cruz, etc.) are agreeing and retweeting each other that Robinhood shutting down GME trading was wrong. At least one class-action suit has been filed already. We may have just lucked into the unifying rallying cry we all needed after the election. https://...

As far as I'm concerned, since the WSB autists' are not actually an organization, their communications are open to the public, and they're not just painting the tape, I think it'd be hard to demonstrate a case of securities fraud or manipulation. Where it starts to get complicated is if the same hi...

I too am trying to figure this out. Here's a good explanation: https://slate.com/technology/2021/01/gamestop-reddit-wallstreetbets-gme.html Basically, social media is now big enough that a bunch of individual investors figured out that they can pool enough money to execute the same type of short sq...

Thanks Tyler. Interesting I looked up GSG. It seems like the ETF is has move into a majority T-Bills. Maybe they are waiting for a pullback to reinvest. https://www.etf.com/GSG#overview https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239757/ishares-sp-gsci-commodityindexed-trust-fund I believe that's actually ...

I cant find the page that shows the underlying specific funds that Tyler uses for his charts (I used to know where it was!) But anyway specifically I am looking for the commodities ETF Tyler is using in his portfolio modeling. And...If anyone here has a good suggestion for a commodities ETF would b...

Ugly_Bird wrote: ↑

Sat Dec 26, 2020 11:56 am

Curious if Tyler would run some models on his charts? Thank you!

As fascinating as Bitcoin is, there just isn't enough historical data to make it worthwhile for backtesting, IMO. But it'll be interesting to watch how it grows over time.

I think it was the potential buyers suffered from paralysis in the case of the 24 choices but could much more easily make the choice among six. Yep. And on top of that, the nagging feeling that you'll make the wrong decision only makes you unhappy with the purchase even if the product is great. The...

I just don't understand how I'm supposed to have any sympathy for these two. First off, their income doubled during pandemic. Secondly, how on earth do two people supposedly strapped for cash spend over 1500 a month on food? Are they eating steak and lobster every meal? The spending on food is just...

Maybe I missed them, but I haven't noticed my big-3 on any lists yet:

The Matrix
Die Hard
Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade


Best Bond movies (one for each real Bond -- sorry, Lazenby):

Goldfinger
The Man With The Golden Gun
License to Kill
Goldeneye
Casino Royale