Search found 2397 matches

by buddtholomew
Tue Jan 18, 2022 12:13 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 169
Views: 3962

Re: Yay PP!

Cash is King..been a while since I’ve heard that uttered.
by buddtholomew
Sun Jan 16, 2022 10:31 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 169
Views: 3962

Re: Yay PP!

Thanks for the details MJ. I continue to own 12% Gold to counterbalance a heavy allocation to Cash. I thought it necessary to keep that part of the portfolio intact. What I’m trying to avoid is a deep drawdown in Gold/LTT’s that may not recover over the 8-10 year timeframe. Worst case scenario if st...
by buddtholomew
Sun Jan 16, 2022 8:47 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 169
Views: 3962

Re: Yay PP!

I’m living off PP in taxable now, retirement funds are 60/40. 10-years until retirement assets are available. Is this the scenario you are responding to MJ?
by buddtholomew
Sun Jan 16, 2022 8:32 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 169
Views: 3962

Re: Yay PP!

Perhaps this will shed some light on my predicament. Would you still invest in the PP if your timeframe was 8-10 years? If not, how would you adjust the allocation if your horizon was this short? I ask because my PP-like portfolio is earmarked to bridge the gap between now and full retirement age wh...
by buddtholomew
Sat Jan 15, 2022 10:38 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 169
Views: 3962

Re: Yay PP!

I’m confused here. What is your exact allocation (percentages) , when did you get in to the PP, how many times have you rebalanced, how many times have you added more money into the PP. Also gold is up fifty percent in three years. IMHO: If your young and have a long runway of earnings you should c...
by buddtholomew
Sat Jan 15, 2022 3:32 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 169
Views: 3962

Re: Yay PP!

The environment is actually not prime for gold .. As long as other assets produce why should gold be bid up ?. As long as other assets are not doing terrible , especially stocks , there is no reason for gold to run with the ball . It takes not inflation but inflation levels the markets dont like fo...
by buddtholomew
Sat Jan 15, 2022 1:43 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 169
Views: 3962

Re: Yay PP!

Don’t get me started on Gold..the more talk about inflation the lower gold goes. I’m still waiting for the day where I can rebalance out of Gold for Stocks but it’s a pipe dream to think that will ever unfold. I have rebalanced out of LTT’s and am grateful for that opportunity. This environment is p...
by buddtholomew
Sat Jan 15, 2022 11:06 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 169
Views: 3962

Re: Yay PP!

It doesn’t suck, but on the other end of the spectrum it isn’t awesome either. I just think it’s touted to be something more magical than it truly is. Many investors hold stock, gold and bonds so the PP is not novel in that regard. The 4x25 is what sets it apart from these other allocations and I th...
by buddtholomew
Sat Jan 15, 2022 10:39 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 169
Views: 3962

Re: Yay PP!

like i said , my core portfolio is nothing like the pp yet results so far are pretty close i show the core i use as 26.40% equities 17.7% high yield bonds 16.70 total bond 39.2 very short term treasuries so that is very different than the pp yet returns are pretty close . volatility is lower as wel...
by buddtholomew
Sat Jan 15, 2022 10:37 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 169
Views: 3962

Re: Yay PP!

mathjak107 wrote:
Sat Jan 15, 2022 10:17 am
buddtholomew wrote:
Sat Jan 15, 2022 10:16 am
mathjak107 wrote:
Sat Jan 15, 2022 10:12 am
sure .

tlt minus 4.11
vti minus 2.66
gld minus .75
shy minus .43

morningstar
GLD is +.75 so with those returns YTD PP is -1.62%...not too bad.

morningstar shows gld at minus .75 see below

Total Return % (Price) -0.75
That makes the PP return YTD even worse.
by buddtholomew
Sat Jan 15, 2022 10:16 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 169
Views: 3962

Re: Yay PP!

mathjak107 wrote:
Sat Jan 15, 2022 10:12 am
sure .

tlt minus 4.11
vti minus 2.66
gld minus .75
shy minus .43

morningstar
GLD is +.75 so with those returns YTD PP is -1.62%...not too bad.
by buddtholomew
Sat Jan 15, 2022 9:59 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 169
Views: 3962

Re: Yay PP!

Thanks MJ, I don’t see how the PP is only down 1% when SPY is -2.74 YTD and LTT’s -4% or so depending on site.
Can you share the actual returns for each asset?

My 43/12/0/45 is -1.12% YTD but I didn’t give up 25% in equity returns last year.
by buddtholomew
Fri Jan 14, 2022 2:18 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 169
Views: 3962

Re: Yay PP!

I wouldn’t be so confident in your last statement with LTT’s down 1.6% and 5% YTD. I’ll say it again...more money is lost trying to prepare or avoid equity crashes (a la PP) than just investing in stocks through thick and thin (don’t recall the original author of this comment). You might as well sin...
by buddtholomew
Fri Jan 14, 2022 11:05 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 169
Views: 3962

Re: Yay PP!

I don’t claim to know which portfolio allocation will outperform moving forward. What I do know is that there is no confidence in the PP and I’m tired of fooling myself into believing there is anything magical about 4 economic climates and the PP holding assets to cover them all. Prey tell which eco...
by buddtholomew
Fri Jan 14, 2022 10:19 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 169
Views: 3962

Re: Yay PP!

Sad that a PP investor gives up all the returns on the upside only to feel the pain on the downside too.

Garbage in, Garbage out
by buddtholomew
Mon Jan 10, 2022 8:13 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2022 PP predictions
Replies: 43
Views: 1224

Re: 2022 PP predictions

It looks like we’re 75 stocks/25 cash again today...more pain ahead. The same applies to the pp …when 3 or all 4 asset classes fall it is like having a very high equity level as far as down is down. There is no yin vs Yang going on Yeah, I’m referring to the PP - Gold and LTT’s declining with stock...
by buddtholomew
Mon Jan 10, 2022 7:56 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2022 PP predictions
Replies: 43
Views: 1224

Re: 2022 PP predictions

It looks like we’re 75 stocks/25 cash again today...more pain ahead.
by buddtholomew
Fri Jan 07, 2022 10:32 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2022 PP predictions
Replies: 43
Views: 1224

Re: 2022 PP predictions

At some point LTT’s will have a positive real return and I don’t want to be a bag holder as that unfolds. Bond yields rising make Gold less attractive so I don’t expect it to increase anytime soon.

If things turn out differently and stocks decline then I will have more cash for purchases.
by buddtholomew
Fri Jan 07, 2022 9:42 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2022 PP predictions
Replies: 43
Views: 1224

Re: 2022 PP predictions

The PP is dead.
by buddtholomew
Thu Jan 06, 2022 9:04 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2022 PP predictions
Replies: 43
Views: 1224

Re: 2022 PP predictions

Wow no joy anywhere here! Only thing I would say is if talk of rates hikes shave a few thousand points more off stocks, that talk will change quickly. Stocks, Gold, LTT: All Up I do believe the pandemic wanes, and things continue to get more normal there, but as we get closer to Nov, everything is ...
by buddtholomew
Thu Jan 06, 2022 8:23 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2022 PP predictions
Replies: 43
Views: 1224

Re: 2022 PP predictions

Stocks down
Gold down
Bonds down
That’s my prediction.

Gold and LTT’s just cannibalize each other further and further down while stocks languish.
by buddtholomew
Mon Dec 20, 2021 6:22 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 169
Views: 3962

Re: Yay PP!

I actually think of it more as community service. I feel duped and I’m bitter because I wasted 10 years investing in 4x25 when I could have just stayed with a conventional portfolio and reaped the rewards. Veer off course and get burned. And what do you ask is the main differentiator between the PP...
by buddtholomew
Mon Dec 20, 2021 4:13 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 169
Views: 3962

Re: Yay PP!

I actually think of it more as community service. I feel duped and I’m bitter because I wasted 10 years investing in 4x25 when I could have just stayed with a conventional portfolio and reaped the rewards. Veer off course and get burned. And what do you ask is the main differentiator between the PP ...
by buddtholomew
Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:52 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 169
Views: 3962

Re: Yay PP!

Laughable I say the same thing year after year, it’s now time for the PP to shine. Yet it doesn’t shine at all. If it does, it’s for maybe 1 or 2 trading sessions and then back to sell off mode. There’s no safety in the PP, it’s very misleading. My returns here. Shining ok for me. https://i.imgur.c...
by buddtholomew
Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:49 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 169
Views: 3962

Re: Yay PP!

dualstow wrote:
Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:34 pm
buddtholomew wrote:
Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:17 pm
dualstow wrote:
Mon Dec 20, 2021 3:14 pm
Ladies and Gentlemen, meet the Statler and Waldorf of our forum. O0
Haha, that’s great although I’m not that old though.
I know, I remember your weightlifting video, which was awesome btw.
Thanks DS!