Search found 2447 matches

by buddtholomew
Tue Jun 14, 2022 10:22 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 1463
Views: 485049

Re: Stock scream room

I was ridiculed for years because I didn’t ascribe to the philosophy that one or more assets would buoy the portfolio in times of economic distress. We are now witnessing this distress first-hand and the PP has proven it does not have the ability to overcome an inflationary environment with rising i...
by buddtholomew
Mon Jun 13, 2022 11:26 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 1463
Views: 485049

Re: Stock scream room

it’s ok, everyone knows what they’re dealing with now.
by buddtholomew
Mon Jun 13, 2022 9:13 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 1463
Views: 485049

Re: Stock scream room

Take the PP and shove it [ edited ]
by buddtholomew
Fri Jun 10, 2022 8:54 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The PP, marginal utility, and investment "faith"
Replies: 135
Views: 12162

Re: The PP, marginal utility, and investment "faith"

The pp is still right in there with other portfolios of equal or close equity allocations that have no gold . The model I use is doing slightly better then the pp and has totally different holdings although same equity levels but certainly not a lot of difference between them . If anything I think ...
by buddtholomew
Fri Jun 10, 2022 8:37 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The PP, marginal utility, and investment "faith"
Replies: 135
Views: 12162

Re: The PP, marginal utility, and investment "faith"

Take Gold and the PP and bury them both.
Useless as always.
by buddtholomew
Sat Apr 30, 2022 10:42 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?
Replies: 34
Views: 2414

Re: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?

[quote=dockinGA post_id=239829 time=1651332839 user_id=3661] [quote=buddtholomew post_id=239821 time=1651280338 user_id=83] [quote=dockinGA post_id=239820 time=1651276453 user_id=3661] [quote=buddtholomew post_id=239812 time=1651265958 user_id=83] [quote=dockinGA post_id=239811 time=1651265596 user_...
by buddtholomew
Fri Apr 29, 2022 7:58 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?
Replies: 34
Views: 2414

Re: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?

Why would you bother investing in a portfolio that fails during the most in-opportune time? Case in point, YTD stocks down 13%, LTT’s down 16%, Gold up 5% and Cash down whatever inflation is at the moment. Case 2, today, stocks down 3.5%, LTT’s down 1.35% and Gold down/flat as well. Seems like a lo...
by buddtholomew
Fri Apr 29, 2022 3:59 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?
Replies: 34
Views: 2414

Re: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?

Why would you bother investing in a portfolio that fails during the most in-opportune time? Case in point, YTD stocks down 13%, LTT’s down 16%, Gold up 5% and Cash down whatever inflation is at the moment. Case 2, today, stocks down 3.5%, LTT’s down 1.35% and Gold down/flat as well. Seems like a lo...
by buddtholomew
Fri Apr 29, 2022 2:46 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?
Replies: 34
Views: 2414

Re: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?

Why would you bother investing in a portfolio that fails during the most in-opportune time? Case in point, YTD stocks down 13%, LTT’s down 16%, Gold up 5% and Cash down whatever inflation is at the moment. Case 2, today, stocks down 3.5%, LTT’s down 1.35% and Gold down/flat as well. Seems like a los...
by buddtholomew
Fri Apr 22, 2022 1:57 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 80
Views: 4547

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Just as I thought, PP is completely and utterly useless.
Where’s MT...I’m sure he thinks it’s doing just fine.
Blah, blah, blah...spring, coil, rebound, bullsh*t.
by buddtholomew
Thu Apr 21, 2022 4:08 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 80
Views: 4547

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

The PP has been neutralized. Talk of rising interest rates has turned the bond market upside down. Gold will face headwinds with yields rising as it does not pay a dividend. Stocks will continue to fall until rates stabilize and inflation subsides. Cash is the only true diversifier and I don’t but ...
by buddtholomew
Thu Apr 21, 2022 3:45 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 80
Views: 4547

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

The PP has been neutralized. Talk of rising interest rates has turned the bond market upside down. Gold will face headwinds with yields rising as it does not pay a dividend. Stocks will continue to fall until rates stabilize and inflation subsides. Cash is the only true diversifier and I don’t but t...
by buddtholomew
Tue Apr 19, 2022 2:55 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Fed damaging bond market
Replies: 54
Views: 3471

Re: Fed damaging bond market

We are a whisker away from a 3% yield on LTT’s.
What happens if we go to 4, 5 or 6%?
Does your plan account for this possibility?

Personally, I believe LTT’s will have their day in the sun once more. I just need to see some strength when stocks decline before allocating any capital.
by buddtholomew
Wed Apr 13, 2022 12:56 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 80
Views: 4547

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

It appears that there were more investors than panicked old Budd who questioned the validity of the PP moving forward. Where were you when I was being attacked for my perspective? Were you too afraid to voice the same opinion as mine? Now people are either selling some or all of their LTT’s down 15%...
by buddtholomew
Fri Apr 08, 2022 4:15 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Fed damaging bond market
Replies: 54
Views: 3471

Re: Fed damaging bond market

If you've looked at my options posting, I have converted about 33% of my net worth to cash and am selling puts. The rest I still have in a PP configuration, but yeah, i finally got a little tired of esp. holding GLD without seeing any income. I’ll have to take a look at your option trading posts. 3...
by buddtholomew
Fri Apr 08, 2022 2:27 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Fed damaging bond market
Replies: 54
Views: 3471

Re: Fed damaging bond market

I’m sure glad i sold TLT.
Perhaps I am the poster child for behavioral pitfalls, but I will not fight the last battle when the cards are stacked against me.

Corto, if ALL assets are going to do poorly for a while, then why hold ALL of them?
by buddtholomew
Tue Apr 05, 2022 1:54 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Fed damaging bond market
Replies: 54
Views: 3471

Re: Fed damaging bond market

Prove me wrong. We can play this game all day. The PP is directionless and the hope is that one or more assets increase more than the other assets decline to produce a positive return. Sometimes one or more assets are down and the remaining asset that is positive doesn’t increase enough to cover th...
by buddtholomew
Tue Apr 05, 2022 1:13 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Fed damaging bond market
Replies: 54
Views: 3471

Re: Fed damaging bond market

I used to advocate the PP as the holy grail to investing and even shared the book with family and friends. I was drawn to the philosophy as it aligned quite well with my mental composition. I long for the days when I felt secure holding 4x25 come hell or high water (rebalanced a few times). LTT’s sa...
by buddtholomew
Thu Mar 31, 2022 3:01 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Fed damaging bond market
Replies: 54
Views: 3471

Re: Fed damaging bond market

It’s ok, PP won’t help you.
by buddtholomew
Thu Mar 31, 2022 2:02 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Fed damaging bond market
Replies: 54
Views: 3471

Re: Fed damaging bond market

Prove me wrong. We can play this game all day. The PP is directionless and the hope is that one or more assets increase more than the other assets decline to produce a positive return. Sometimes one or more assets are down and the remaining asset that is positive doesn’t increase enough to cover th...
by buddtholomew
Thu Mar 31, 2022 9:35 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Fed damaging bond market
Replies: 54
Views: 3471

Re: Fed damaging bond market

Prove me wrong. We can play this game all day. The PP is directionless and the hope is that one or more assets increase more than the other assets decline to produce a positive return. Sometimes one or more assets are down and the remaining asset that is positive doesn’t increase enough to cover the...
by buddtholomew
Thu Mar 31, 2022 9:29 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!
Replies: 63
Views: 4715

Re: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!

Apologies, it’s 2021-2022 YTD. 2020 - YTD returns are pretty close, about 2% difference. Fair enough. Inflation adjusted, the PP is down about 6% since Jan 2021. Pretty bad for this portfolio, but still far, far, far from a disaster. Coupled with the huge runup that we saw in 2019-2020, it's still ...
by buddtholomew
Thu Mar 31, 2022 9:27 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Fed damaging bond market
Replies: 54
Views: 3471

Re: Fed damaging bond market

The new normal for bonds is that they become more and more about simply guessing at central bank moves, and less about real-world fundamentals because investors will turn elsewhere to express such views -- precious metals, various equity sectors, commodity baskets and so on. I don't know that we ne...
by buddtholomew
Thu Mar 31, 2022 9:24 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!
Replies: 63
Views: 4715

Re: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!

01/2021 - 2022 YTD PP: 2.25% BH 60/40: 8% Where are you getting your numbers? According to portfoliovisualizer, i'm seeing that $10k invested in the PP Jan 2020 would be worth almost $11k today, inflation adjusted. Apologies, it’s 2021-2022 YTD. 2020 - YTD returns are pretty close, about 2% differe...
by buddtholomew
Thu Mar 31, 2022 8:29 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!
Replies: 63
Views: 4715

Re: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!

01/2020 - 2022 YTD

PP: 2.25%
BH 60/40: 8%