Search found 100 matches
- Wed Jan 24, 2024 3:39 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: I do not undestand the theory behind international PP at all
- Replies: 29
- Views: 24194
Re: I do not undestand the theory behind international PP at all
Hal: I believe a US based PP makes more sense the smaller the economy of the country you live in. Siamond on the Bogleheads blog would agree. https://www.bogleheads.org/blog/2020/03/02/50-years-of-investing-in-the-world-part-3/ In a three-part article, he concluded: After playing with historical num...
- Sat Dec 30, 2023 8:11 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: 2023 Returns
- Replies: 25
- Views: 153018
Re: 2023 Returns
Date from Google Finance:
Classic Euro PP 25x4 ETFs of Euro shares CEU + 14.08%, long bond MTH +7.64%, gold GBS +8.97% and short term bond MTA +3.26%, all traded Paris: average +8.49% in Euros
Classic US SPY + 24.81%, TLT -2.54%, GLD +12.69%, SHY +0.98%: average +8.75% in dollars
Classic Euro PP 25x4 ETFs of Euro shares CEU + 14.08%, long bond MTH +7.64%, gold GBS +8.97% and short term bond MTA +3.26%, all traded Paris: average +8.49% in Euros
Classic US SPY + 24.81%, TLT -2.54%, GLD +12.69%, SHY +0.98%: average +8.75% in dollars
- Sat Feb 06, 2021 3:26 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Modified Golden Butterfly Portfolio
- Replies: 28
- Views: 22340
Re: Modified Golden Butterfly Portfolio
I just found an three-part article by Siamond on the Bogleheads blog on world stock investing for non-US investors: https://www.bogleheads.org/blog/2020/03/02/50-years-of-investing-in-the-world-part-3/ The article concludes: World 80%, Domestic Tilt 20% Let’s cut to the chase a little bit. After pla...
- Fri Feb 05, 2021 9:11 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Modified Golden Butterfly Portfolio
- Replies: 28
- Views: 22340
Re: Modified Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Thanks Senecaaa. In what relative proportions do you hold the Euro and US ETFs? I am inclined to 50% US and 50% Euro, but that is arbitrary.
- Fri Feb 05, 2021 7:15 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Modified Golden Butterfly Portfolio
- Replies: 28
- Views: 22340
Re: Modified Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Looking for suggestions please. I have a Euro PP which contains Euro Large Cap shares (Sanofi, Renault, VInci, Luis Vuitton etc). At the moment the PP is not far off 4x25%, being 29/20/25/26% stocks bonds gold cash. For simplification, I am closing a small account elsewhere, and would like to use th...
- Fri Jan 01, 2021 6:57 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: 2020 Permanent Portfolio Return Poll
- Replies: 15
- Views: 6885
Re: 2020 Permanent Portfolio Return Poll
My Euro PP of individual Euro HY shares, 15Y+ govt bond ETF, gold ETC and cash: +5.03%. My other more conventional Euro PP of share ETFs (Dax, Nasdaq and Emerging Markets), 7-10Y bond ETFs, gold ETC and cash: 7.81%. For comparison, a vanilla 4x25% Euro PP. ETFs traded in Paris, Google Finance symbol...
- Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:36 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Modified Golden Butterfly Portfolio
- Replies: 28
- Views: 22340
Re: Modified Golden Butterfly Portfolio
I just listened to podcast proposing a Golden Butterfly-like portfolio for Indian residents: Ashish Shanker, head of investments at Motilal Oswal Private Wealth Management, made an argument for an equal-weight allocation to five asset classes — cash or liquid investments, debt, gold, Indian equity a...
- Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:13 am
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: DIY individual stock fund
- Replies: 49
- Views: 49463
Re: DIY individual stock fund
I tried out individual stocks, as described in another thread in November 2019 https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=10178&p=181885#p181885 . I am a Euro investor. 1. PP 4x25% Stocks 50% individual Euro dividend shares (Sanofi, Vinci, Red Electrica, Renault, Air Liqui...
- Sat May 02, 2020 6:30 am
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: International stocks?
- Replies: 42
- Views: 70979
Re: International stocks?
Yes Hal, that makes sense: the stock index used should be diversified, and that may not be the case in a small country. Also as you mention, US bonds do have a safe haven status for investors worldwide. TLT (US 20+ year Treasuries) is +24% since January, while its European equivalent MTH is only +6%.
- Sat May 02, 2020 3:45 am
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: International stocks?
- Replies: 42
- Views: 70979
Re: International stocks?
To put the question backwards: should a non-US PP investor invest in US stocks and if so, what percentage? As a Euro investor, I am inclined to 50% EU, 30% US, 20% EM (not far off World allocation), but I have no evidence for this. My impression, from portfoliocharts.com and my own experience, is th...
- Mon Apr 13, 2020 9:09 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Most Secure Way to Reasonable Hold PP Assets??
- Replies: 24
- Views: 13148
Re: Most Secure Way to Reasonable Hold PP Assets??
"why not just buy a dividend ETF like Vanguard's VYM (and pay them a very small cut to do some managing) instead of individual companies?" Dividend ETFs are relatively new and have a rather undistinguished history. It seems that you get a considerably better return from holding the indivi...
- Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:11 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Most Secure Way to Reasonable Hold PP Assets??
- Replies: 24
- Views: 13148
Re: Most Secure Way to Reasonable Hold PP Assets??
To continue from my previous post: Even apparently safe companies are not immune from big losses. Tupperware: kitchen goods, household name. Mattel: children's toys including the famous Barbie and Ken. What could possibly go wrong? in the five years that I have owned them, quite a lot, apparently: -...
- Sun Apr 12, 2020 3:54 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Most Secure Way to Reasonable Hold PP Assets??
- Replies: 24
- Views: 13148
Re: Most Secure Way to Reasonable Hold PP Assets??
Be careful with this line of thought. If you randomly bought 30 stocks across the range of sectors and market caps the odds are extremely high you are going to get your performance clock cleaned by a large cap index. You DO need a methodology for stock purchase if going to 30 individual stocks. Kbg...
- Sun Apr 12, 2020 11:00 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: New to Permanent Portfolio
- Replies: 45
- Views: 31931
Re: New to Permanent Portfolio
Yes, that is my understanding of it as well. HB suggested rebalancing at 15% or 35% of the portfolio, so +/- 40% rather than +/-20%.So, 20% would mean 20-30% for each asset class right? Quite a bit narrower from what HB recommended.
- Sun Apr 12, 2020 4:05 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: New to Permanent Portfolio
- Replies: 45
- Views: 31931
Re: New to Permanent Portfolio
Michael Kitces has an article which concludes that it is best to check frequently and rebalance opportunistically at 20% bands. A 2007 study in the Journal of Financial Planning by Gobind Daryanani entitled “Opportunistic Rebalancing” studied rolling 5-year periods from 1992 to 2004 and found that t...
- Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:34 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Asset Allocation in the Most Painful Month
- Replies: 31
- Views: 15111
Re: Asset Allocation in the Most Painful Month
My intention a few posts back was not to talk up gold in particular, but rather to talk up asset diversification in general. Gold is an example of a diviersifier which is largely ignored by financial advisers - allegedly because they cannot make much money from advising you to invest in it. Meb Fabe...
- Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:37 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Asset Allocation in the Most Painful Month
- Replies: 31
- Views: 15111
Re: Asset Allocation in the Most Painful Month
The view on most investing web sites seems to be that stocks are the main and perhaps the only asset class to invest in, because over an investing lifetime, stocks can go in only one direction. So when an investor suffers a loss, the forum reply is often: "Just stay the course, it will all come...
- Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:51 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: EU-PP and PPeers
- Replies: 13
- Views: 7582
Re: EU-PP and PPeers
Frugal Why do you use C13 and MTH ? C13 is an ETF of 1-3 year bonds, and MTH is 25+ year bonds, the longest-bond Euro ETF I can find. If you have other suggestions I would love to hear them. CEU is the MSCI Europe index ETF, but there is also the Eurostoxx 600 as well as individual country ETFs like...
- Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:04 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: EU-PP and PPeers
- Replies: 13
- Views: 7582
Re: EU-PP and PPeers
Figures for today (ETFs traded in Paris) and on 1 Jan 2020, with difference %. Vanilla EU PP in Euros: CEU 166.78 245.32 -32.02% MTH 131.00 125.16 4.67% GBS 131.08 127.04 3.18% C13 168.09 168.61 -0.31% Combined -6.12% EUR/USD 1.0673 1.12375 -5.28% The vanilla US PP in dollars seems to have done bett...
- Mon Feb 03, 2020 1:32 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Maximum Bond Upside
- Replies: 278
- Views: 165378
Re: Maximum Bond Upside
I’m not sure what you are challenging, the fact that LTTs will respond best in a period of falling rates? The central tenet of the PP that I am challenging is that LTTs are the best bonds to use, due to their volatility. The backtesting I did indicates that LTTs are the best PP bonds only when inte...
- Sun Feb 02, 2020 7:09 am
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Maximum Bond Upside
- Replies: 278
- Views: 165378
Re: Maximum Bond Upside
Vinny Thanks for reviving this thread. This topic is more relevant than ever I guess. 1. A full three years later, after both this and your prior analysis, what have you been deciding to do during these past three years? For my PP, I ended up in a compromise, buying some medium and some long. 3 Jan ...
- Wed Jan 01, 2020 3:59 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: 2019 Permanent Portfolio Results
- Replies: 18
- Views: 9030
Re: 2019 Permanent Portfolio Results
My Euro PP of individual Euro HY shares, 15Y+ govt bond ETF, gold ETC and cash: +18%. Some of my Euro shares came good after years of underperformance, notably the bank Société Générale and the pharma Sanofi. Vanilla 4x25% Euro PP . ETFs traded in Paris, Google Finance symbols: EPA:CEU 21.61% MSCI ...
- Tue Dec 10, 2019 9:09 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: New Member and Permanent Portfolio Novice. Asking for help
- Replies: 15
- Views: 7909
Re: New Member and Permanent Portfolio Novice. Asking for help
SilentStoic I used to be in a similar position, with a number of possibly ill-chosen stocks and bonds and no clear strategy. The good thing is, I have cash. I need to buy more bonds and gold. So I need to figure out what is the total holdings, and buy some gold and bonds while leaving the rest in ca...
- Wed Nov 13, 2019 8:39 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: What is your current portfolio?
- Replies: 35
- Views: 28284
Re: What is your current portfolio?
I am in the Eurozone. Retired, so even my VP (20% of total) is pretty conservative. 1. PP 4x25% Stocks 50% individual Euro dividend shares (Sanofi, Vinci, Red Electrica, Renault, Air Liquide etc) 25% German Dax ETF (DAX from Lyxor) 12.5% each Nasdaq and Emerging Markets ETFs (ANX and AEEM from Amund...
- Thu Sep 05, 2019 3:08 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Portfolio for European investor
- Replies: 5
- Views: 7060
Re: Portfolio for European investor
Yes, this year gold in Europe (GBS) has gained 19%, while gold in the US (GLD) has gained 15%. So this year at least, gold is doing ok.