Search found 100 matches

by tarentola
Wed Jan 24, 2024 3:39 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: I do not undestand the theory behind international PP at all
Replies: 26
Views: 18541

Re: I do not undestand the theory behind international PP at all

Hal: I believe a US based PP makes more sense the smaller the economy of the country you live in. Siamond on the Bogleheads blog would agree. https://www.bogleheads.org/blog/2020/03/02/50-years-of-investing-in-the-world-part-3/ In a three-part article, he concluded: After playing with historical num...
by tarentola
Sat Dec 30, 2023 8:11 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2023 Returns
Replies: 25
Views: 109567

Re: 2023 Returns

Date from Google Finance:

Classic Euro PP 25x4 ETFs of Euro shares CEU + 14.08%, long bond MTH +7.64%, gold GBS +8.97% and short term bond MTA +3.26%, all traded Paris: average +8.49% in Euros

Classic US SPY + 24.81%, TLT -2.54%, GLD +12.69%, SHY +0.98%: average +8.75% in dollars
by tarentola
Sat Feb 06, 2021 3:26 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Modified Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 28
Views: 21504

Re: Modified Golden Butterfly Portfolio

I just found an three-part article by Siamond on the Bogleheads blog on world stock investing for non-US investors: https://www.bogleheads.org/blog/2020/03/02/50-years-of-investing-in-the-world-part-3/ The article concludes: World 80%, Domestic Tilt 20% Let’s cut to the chase a little bit. After pla...
by tarentola
Fri Feb 05, 2021 9:11 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Modified Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 28
Views: 21504

Re: Modified Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Thanks Senecaaa. In what relative proportions do you hold the Euro and US ETFs? I am inclined to 50% US and 50% Euro, but that is arbitrary.
by tarentola
Fri Feb 05, 2021 7:15 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Modified Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 28
Views: 21504

Re: Modified Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Looking for suggestions please. I have a Euro PP which contains Euro Large Cap shares (Sanofi, Renault, VInci, Luis Vuitton etc). At the moment the PP is not far off 4x25%, being 29/20/25/26% stocks bonds gold cash. For simplification, I am closing a small account elsewhere, and would like to use th...
by tarentola
Fri Jan 01, 2021 6:57 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2020 Permanent Portfolio Return Poll
Replies: 15
Views: 6031

Re: 2020 Permanent Portfolio Return Poll

My Euro PP of individual Euro HY shares, 15Y+ govt bond ETF, gold ETC and cash: +5.03%. My other more conventional Euro PP of share ETFs (Dax, Nasdaq and Emerging Markets), 7-10Y bond ETFs, gold ETC and cash: 7.81%. For comparison, a vanilla 4x25% Euro PP. ETFs traded in Paris, Google Finance symbol...
by tarentola
Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:36 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Modified Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 28
Views: 21504

Re: Modified Golden Butterfly Portfolio

I just listened to podcast proposing a Golden Butterfly-like portfolio for Indian residents: Ashish Shanker, head of investments at Motilal Oswal Private Wealth Management, made an argument for an equal-weight allocation to five asset classes — cash or liquid investments, debt, gold, Indian equity a...
by tarentola
Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:13 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: DIY individual stock fund
Replies: 49
Views: 48119

Re: DIY individual stock fund

I tried out individual stocks, as described in another thread in November 2019 https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=10178&p=181885#p181885 . I am a Euro investor. 1. PP 4x25% Stocks 50% individual Euro dividend shares (Sanofi, Vinci, Red Electrica, Renault, Air Liquide etc) ...
by tarentola
Sat May 02, 2020 6:30 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: International stocks?
Replies: 42
Views: 68349

Re: International stocks?

Yes Hal, that makes sense: the stock index used should be diversified, and that may not be the case in a small country. Also as you mention, US bonds do have a safe haven status for investors worldwide. TLT (US 20+ year Treasuries) is +24% since January, while its European equivalent MTH is only +6%.
by tarentola
Sat May 02, 2020 3:45 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: International stocks?
Replies: 42
Views: 68349

Re: International stocks?

To put the question backwards: should a non-US PP investor invest in US stocks and if so, what percentage? As a Euro investor, I am inclined to 50% EU, 30% US, 20% EM (not far off World allocation), but I have no evidence for this. My impression, from portfoliocharts.com and my own experience, is th...
by tarentola
Mon Apr 13, 2020 9:09 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Most Secure Way to Reasonable Hold PP Assets??
Replies: 24
Views: 12297

Re: Most Secure Way to Reasonable Hold PP Assets??

"why not just buy a dividend ETF like Vanguard's VYM (and pay them a very small cut to do some managing) instead of individual companies?" Dividend ETFs are relatively new and have a rather undistinguished history. It seems that you get a considerably better return from holding the individual const...
by tarentola
Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:11 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Most Secure Way to Reasonable Hold PP Assets??
Replies: 24
Views: 12297

Re: Most Secure Way to Reasonable Hold PP Assets??

To continue from my previous post: Even apparently safe companies are not immune from big losses. Tupperware: kitchen goods, household name. Mattel: children's toys including the famous Barbie and Ken. What could possibly go wrong? in the five years that I have owned them, quite a lot, apparently: -...
by tarentola
Sun Apr 12, 2020 3:54 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Most Secure Way to Reasonable Hold PP Assets??
Replies: 24
Views: 12297

Re: Most Secure Way to Reasonable Hold PP Assets??

Be careful with this line of thought. If you randomly bought 30 stocks across the range of sectors and market caps the odds are extremely high you are going to get your performance clock cleaned by a large cap index. You DO need a methodology for stock purchase if going to 30 individual stocks. Kbg...
by tarentola
Sun Apr 12, 2020 11:00 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: New to Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 45
Views: 30957

Re: New to Permanent Portfolio

So, 20% would mean 20-30% for each asset class right? Quite a bit narrower from what HB recommended.
Yes, that is my understanding of it as well. HB suggested rebalancing at 15% or 35% of the portfolio, so +/- 40% rather than +/-20%.
by tarentola
Sun Apr 12, 2020 4:05 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: New to Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 45
Views: 30957

Re: New to Permanent Portfolio

Michael Kitces has an article which concludes that it is best to check frequently and rebalance opportunistically at 20% bands. A 2007 study in the Journal of Financial Planning by Gobind Daryanani entitled “Opportunistic Rebalancing” studied rolling 5-year periods from 1992 to 2004 and found that t...
by tarentola
Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:34 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Asset Allocation in the Most Painful Month
Replies: 31
Views: 14165

Re: Asset Allocation in the Most Painful Month

My intention a few posts back was not to talk up gold in particular, but rather to talk up asset diversification in general. Gold is an example of a diviersifier which is largely ignored by financial advisers - allegedly because they cannot make much money from advising you to invest in it. Meb Fabe...
by tarentola
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:37 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Asset Allocation in the Most Painful Month
Replies: 31
Views: 14165

Re: Asset Allocation in the Most Painful Month

The view on most investing web sites seems to be that stocks are the main and perhaps the only asset class to invest in, because over an investing lifetime, stocks can go in only one direction. So when an investor suffers a loss, the forum reply is often: "Just stay the course, it will all come righ...
by tarentola
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:51 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: EU-PP and PPeers
Replies: 13
Views: 7121

Re: EU-PP and PPeers

Frugal Why do you use C13 and MTH ? C13 is an ETF of 1-3 year bonds, and MTH is 25+ year bonds, the longest-bond Euro ETF I can find. If you have other suggestions I would love to hear them. CEU is the MSCI Europe index ETF, but there is also the Eurostoxx 600 as well as individual country ETFs like...
by tarentola
Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:04 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: EU-PP and PPeers
Replies: 13
Views: 7121

Re: EU-PP and PPeers

Figures for today (ETFs traded in Paris) and on 1 Jan 2020, with difference %. Vanilla EU PP in Euros: CEU 166.78 245.32 -32.02% MTH 131.00 125.16 4.67% GBS 131.08 127.04 3.18% C13 168.09 168.61 -0.31% Combined -6.12% EUR/USD 1.0673 1.12375 -5.28% The vanilla US PP in dollars seems to have done bett...
by tarentola
Mon Feb 03, 2020 1:32 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Maximum Bond Upside
Replies: 278
Views: 161363

Re: Maximum Bond Upside

I’m not sure what you are challenging, the fact that LTTs will respond best in a period of falling rates? The central tenet of the PP that I am challenging is that LTTs are the best bonds to use, due to their volatility. The backtesting I did indicates that LTTs are the best PP bonds only when inte...
by tarentola
Sun Feb 02, 2020 7:09 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Maximum Bond Upside
Replies: 278
Views: 161363

Re: Maximum Bond Upside

Vinny Thanks for reviving this thread. This topic is more relevant than ever I guess. 1. A full three years later, after both this and your prior analysis, what have you been deciding to do during these past three years? For my PP, I ended up in a compromise, buying some medium and some long. 3 Jan ...
by tarentola
Wed Jan 01, 2020 3:59 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2019 Permanent Portfolio Results
Replies: 18
Views: 8730

Re: 2019 Permanent Portfolio Results

My Euro PP of individual Euro HY shares, 15Y+ govt bond ETF, gold ETC and cash: +18%. Some of my Euro shares came good after years of underperformance, notably the bank Société Générale and the pharma Sanofi. Vanilla 4x25% Euro PP . ETFs traded in Paris, Google Finance symbols: EPA:CEU 21.61% MSCI ...
by tarentola
Tue Dec 10, 2019 9:09 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: New Member and Permanent Portfolio Novice. Asking for help
Replies: 15
Views: 7592

Re: New Member and Permanent Portfolio Novice. Asking for help

SilentStoic I used to be in a similar position, with a number of possibly ill-chosen stocks and bonds and no clear strategy. The good thing is, I have cash. I need to buy more bonds and gold. So I need to figure out what is the total holdings, and buy some gold and bonds while leaving the rest in ca...
by tarentola
Wed Nov 13, 2019 8:39 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: What is your current portfolio?
Replies: 35
Views: 27337

Re: What is your current portfolio?

I am in the Eurozone. Retired, so even my VP (20% of total) is pretty conservative. 1. PP 4x25% Stocks 50% individual Euro dividend shares (Sanofi, Vinci, Red Electrica, Renault, Air Liquide etc) 25% German Dax ETF (DAX from Lyxor) 12.5% each Nasdaq and Emerging Markets ETFs (ANX and AEEM from Amund...
by tarentola
Thu Sep 05, 2019 3:08 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Portfolio for European investor
Replies: 5
Views: 6804

Re: Portfolio for European investor

Yes, this year gold in Europe (GBS) has gained 19%, while gold in the US (GLD) has gained 15%. So this year at least, gold is doing ok.