Search found 724 matches

by D1984
Sat Sep 30, 2023 5:32 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Commodity Funds
Replies: 22
Views: 515

Re: Commodity Funds

I don’t quite remember, Vinny, but I think anything with LP for Limited Partnership in the name is going to have a K-1. Cedar Fair is the amusement park stock I was trying to think of. Cedar Fair, L.P. ticker: FUN. K-1, not so much fun. O0 You are definitely correct as it is a partnership and not a...
by D1984
Tue Sep 26, 2023 3:30 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TLT cracks $90
Replies: 18
Views: 661

Re: TLT cracks $90

Thoughts? At 16.7% of my PP... Getting close to the 15% rebalance band. I hope it doesn't happen this year but will in 2024. Will have to report my 2023 to FAFSA, so I do not want to sell anything from my brokerage accounts :-[ You have no lots of long Treasuries--or LTT ETF/mutual fund shares--you...
by D1984
Wed Sep 13, 2023 3:30 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Interviews With The Homeless
Replies: 10
Views: 390

Re: Interviews With The Homeless

Needs to be easier for people to move to lower cost-of-living areas. Feds should subsidize movers and manage a national jobs database. No minimum wage = no unemployment. Make it easy to get food stamps for healthy food. No one is going to abuse it and eat too many vegetables. Maybe me and Vinny. FE...
by D1984
Mon Sep 11, 2023 12:39 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: International stocks?
Replies: 42
Views: 35290

Re: International stocks?

Some ideas I've considered in my PP : internal correlation of the portfolio and stock valuation Being in Canada I feel I can't do domestic stocks as our stock market has so many commodities (oil and gas producers, gold stocks etc) and sentiment about the commodities sector seems to trickle into our...
by D1984
Fri Sep 08, 2023 5:04 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Physical + Bullionvault + Paxos combo primer
Replies: 19
Views: 525

Re: Physical + Bullionvault + Paxos combo primer

I remember a foolish poster once said that you had to discount all of the 1970's performance for gold because gold wasn't "truly free floating" until the 1980s. No one called him out on it despite that being the dumbest statement anyone has ever made about investing. Like, conveniently he decides t...
by D1984
Mon Sep 04, 2023 4:18 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 208
Views: 56300

Re: Gold (PAXG) lending at 7% rate

I see recent Nexo quotes for lending PAXG (gold) at 7%, staking at 5% (similar to lending, but where you lend to the 'system' rather than a individual, as I understand it, so 'safer'). Idea : Third 2x stock, two-thirds gold - via PAXG that's lent (at a 7% rate). 4.6% proportioned benefit. Has the s...
by D1984
Mon Aug 28, 2023 12:34 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: What happens to I-bonds if rates plummet again
Replies: 46
Views: 13215

Re: What happens to I-bonds if rates plummet again

Still think the ladders are too complicated I've been thinking the opposite. Over here (UK) and our TIPS (index linked gilts) are pretty much at around 1% real yields across the yield curve https://www.yieldgimp.com/index-linked-gilt-yields Target 2.3% real from that, 33% initial allocation and tha...
by D1984
Tue Aug 15, 2023 9:15 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Which is worse?
Replies: 18
Views: 1236

Re: Which is worse?

That is a fair point. And the free market IS penalizing Disney. Their movies are bombing and park attendance is way down YOY. Same with Bud Light and Target. But it's not so simple. If I want to not buy stock in Disney or Target bc I don't agree with their "values", that means I can't buy any index...
by D1984
Mon Aug 14, 2023 3:29 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement
Replies: 45
Views: 2160

Re: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement

a 60/40 has ended 30 years with more then one started with 90% of all 123 rolling 30 year cycles to date . 67% of the time it ended with 2x what you started with , and 50% of the time 3x what you ended with . this is at a 4% inflation adjusted draw You willing to bet you'd not be in that 10%? That ...
by D1984
Thu Aug 10, 2023 10:21 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us
Replies: 1985
Views: 338415

Re: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us

I welcome any other thoughts and constructive criticisms others may have on the book project. :) One more quick question: Is there a particular reason you chose global government bonds vs, say, a US intermediate-term bond ETF? I ask not out of US-centered parochialism but rather because a deep stud...
by D1984
Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:30 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement
Replies: 45
Views: 2160

Re: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement

base rate is 1.86% so it is an assumption that the inflation kicker will generate the rest ..but lower inflation expectations will see that kicker fall My understanding is that this is not the case (i.e. Mr. Roth is not depending on a high inflation kicker to generate returns that will allow him to...
by D1984
Wed Aug 09, 2023 1:45 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement
Replies: 45
Views: 2160

Re: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement

the flaw here is there is still a considerable amount of sequence risk at work . it takes at least a 2% real return the first 15 years of a 30 year retirement for 4% inflation adjusted to hold . tips have performed poorly despite the higher inflation because of rising rates.. they may have a very h...
by D1984
Sun Aug 06, 2023 4:36 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Minimum AUM
Replies: 10
Views: 427

Re: Minimum AUM

Hey folks. Bit of a niche question for you guys. What is the minimum AUM a fund has to have before you'd feel confident investing in it? As I'm sure we're all aware, low AUM is the primary reason a fund would shut down. If we assume you are in a taxable account you'd have to eat a bunch of gains. W...
by D1984
Wed Aug 02, 2023 11:11 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Substitutes
Replies: 31
Views: 1713

Re: Gold Substitutes

HB stated in his radio show, the reason he chose Gold is that it is the second most popular form of money after the USD. The rationale being is if people lost confidence in the USD, they would move to the next most popular money, Gold. So assuming Gold is not accessible, I would expect the best Gol...
by D1984
Wed Jul 26, 2023 5:41 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Substitutes
Replies: 31
Views: 1713

Re: Gold Substitutes

HB stated in his radio show, the reason he chose Gold is that it is the second most popular form of money after the USD. The rationale being is if people lost confidence in the USD, they would move to the next most popular money, Gold. So assuming Gold is not accessible, I would expect the best Gol...
by D1984
Mon Jul 24, 2023 10:58 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us
Replies: 1985
Views: 338415

Re: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us

Have you back tested your portfolio vs. the various Vanguard Target Retirement portfolios or other “commonly proposed” portfolios mentioned on this forum? It would be good to explain why yours is better. Just a suggestion. Yes, good point. Data availability is going to be a huge challenge. This is ...
by D1984
Mon May 22, 2023 5:21 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The debt celing soap opera explained so simply that even a member of Congress can understand it
Replies: 18
Views: 1414

Re: The debt celing soap opera explained so simply that even a member of Congress can understand it

Government needs to be shrunk/obstructed/gridlocked by any means necessary. If thats not what "republicans" are doing here, then its bad. Why? If you look at places with larger governments vs places with high HDI it seems that there is a correlation. This doesn't mean that having bigger government ...
by D1984
Sun May 21, 2023 3:46 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: When will indexing blow up?
Replies: 30
Views: 4539

Re: When will indexing blow up?

The cap weighted index reflect yesterdays best/worst. Buy the index and you weight more into yesterdays winners. Bogle suggested the ultimate being to buy initially in equal weights and hold that forever, let it find its own cap weighting. but that wasn't something that Vanguard could market. John ...
by D1984
Sun May 21, 2023 1:56 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The debt celing soap opera explained so simply that even a member of Congress can understand it
Replies: 18
Views: 1414

Re: The debt celing soap opera explained so simply that even a member of Congress can understand it

yeah its that simple. Relatedly, r/ "news" has devolved into leftist rage-porn. https://old.reddit.com/r/news/top/?sort=top&t=week OK, so how is the threatened default not the GOP's fault? This whole debacle only seems to happen when we have Republican control of one or both houses and we have a De...
by D1984
Sun May 21, 2023 1:06 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Non-ESG ETFs
Replies: 50
Views: 5977

Re: Non-ESG ETFs

Interesting. I was under the impression that Vanguard and Blackrock were the most egregious ESG proponents. If that grading table is accurate, this is indeed good news. Profits for shareholders should be their main focus, nothing else. Except that by (for example) not encouraging, say, a fossil fue...
by D1984
Tue May 16, 2023 8:40 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Non-ESG ETFs
Replies: 50
Views: 5977

Re: Non-ESG ETFs

Interesting. I was under the impression that Vanguard and Blackrock were the most egregious ESG proponents. If that grading table is accurate, this is indeed good news. Profits for shareholders should be their main focus, nothing else. Except that by (for example) not encouraging, say, a fossil fue...
by D1984
Mon May 15, 2023 6:27 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: U.S. money supply suffers sharpest contraction since Great Depression
Replies: 14
Views: 683

Re: U.S. money supply suffers sharpest contraction since Great Depression

The measure of trust for a random site is whether or not it's mentioned on Wikipedia? Not totally. More of a sign that if some negative information about it is on Wikipedia then one should probably use the web site with caution. So... Any site that doesn't have negative information about it on Wiki...
by D1984
Sun May 14, 2023 7:37 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The All-Weather Portfolio for Uncertain Times
Replies: 4
Views: 693

Re: The All-Weather Portfolio for Uncertain Times

This blog is designed to record the investment journey of a UK based small investor. The All-Weather Portfolio for Uncertain Times https://diyinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2023/05/the-all-weather-portfolio-for-uncertain.html "Could this is the ultimate set-and-forget portfolio?" "Further reading - The Pe...
by D1984
Thu May 11, 2023 1:25 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Weird Portfolio - latest from Tyler/Portfolio Charts
Replies: 28
Views: 2427

Re: The Weird Portfolio - latest from Tyler/Portfolio Charts

Having said that, there is an interesting asset class that seems to act almost like "risk-be-gone powder" that can be sprinkled on pretty much any portfolio and watch the maxDD and volatility go down without anything near the commensurate decrease in returns....unfortunately I at the moment only ha...
by D1984
Wed May 10, 2023 6:03 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Weird Portfolio - latest from Tyler/Portfolio Charts
Replies: 28
Views: 2427

Re: The Weird Portfolio - latest from Tyler/Portfolio Charts

Holy tracking error, Batman! 🙂 Well yeah but unlike the Larry Portfolio or even (dare one say it?) the PP you at least get some return to go with your tracking error. 😏 True enough....but in all fairness, neither the PP nor the Larry Portfolio (in its various incarnations with or without CCFs and/o...