Search found 612 matches

by D1984
Sun Oct 24, 2021 10:27 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Australian stock index returns (daily or monthly) - a question
Replies: 1
Views: 67

Australian stock index returns (daily or monthly) - a question

Just a quick question for any Aussies we might have on this board (or anyone else who might have access to this kind of info): Do you know of any source for Australian stock return data (i.e. TR with dividends reinvested) or even just price-only data (i.e. just the share price of the index with no d...
by D1984
Sat Oct 23, 2021 6:50 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: For those using the PP or GB in retirement
Replies: 33
Views: 1314

Re: For those using the PP or GB in retirement

For the method I outlined earlier and from 1900 ... https://i.postimg.cc/Kc1LKqdW/stochastic-silver-us-stock-TBills-instead-of-silver-pre-1934-us-and-us-inflation.png 4% was more a PWR, and in one case you ended with over seven times the inflation adjusted start date portfolio value after 4% SWR wi...
by D1984
Sat Oct 23, 2021 10:25 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: For those using the PP or GB in retirement
Replies: 33
Views: 1314

Re: For those using the PP or GB in retirement

all irrelevent since the math is the math as to what is needed for 4% swr to hold. that is a 2-1/2% real return min the first 15 years . it does not matter how you want to get to it ELI5. If US stocks return, say 1.4% real annually on average (CAGR) for the next 15 years and bonds return, say, 0.3%...
by D1984
Sat Oct 23, 2021 9:54 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: For those using the PP or GB in retirement
Replies: 33
Views: 1314

Re: For those using the PP or GB in retirement

It wasn’t returns that killed off those failing years , it was the sequences of those returns and real returns… safe withdrawal rates are based not on average returns but "worst case scenario" returns (at least, the worst we've seen in history) In fact if you look at the 30 year returns for all the...
by D1984
Thu Oct 21, 2021 1:27 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Martin Armstrong on Australia
Replies: 2
Views: 342

Re: Martin Armstrong on Australia

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/australia-oceania/australia-committing-economic-suicide/ So... if you live in a small economy, then some international diversification is advisable. Take a bow Smithy => https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=11920&p=22354...
by D1984
Fri Oct 15, 2021 6:12 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Sucks to Be An I-Bond Hater
Replies: 23
Views: 1412

Re: Sucks to Be An I-Bond Hater

The rate is set every six months and you get that rate for six months regardless of the announcement date. Quick example. Bond bought in Sept (3.54%) Rate change on 1 Nov to 7.1% Bond bought in Jan September bond stays at 3.54 until March at which point it rolls to 7.1% until Sept next January bond...
by D1984
Fri Oct 01, 2021 4:47 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Why isn't gold moving?
Replies: 74
Views: 8369

Re: Why isn't gold moving?

I think maybe there has to be more gloom and doom in the air before people start fleeing to safety. As long as stocks are still cranking along and staying ahead of inflation investors aren't going to worry about it that much. A major stock market correction, coupled with continuing inflation, might...
by D1984
Tue Sep 28, 2021 5:39 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Value vs growth
Replies: 5
Views: 465

Re: Value vs growth

Yeah, as I mentioned. If growth is really overvalued then return to mean is a definite factor. Value crushed growth From Jan 01 to Dec 07. 6.54% CAGR to a 0 CAGR. Since then, 7.83% CAGR to 13.6%. However, if one is going to time growth vs. value, then go all in and do it right. QQQ and IJS. Two (po...
by D1984
Tue Sep 28, 2021 5:02 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5150
Views: 446445

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Truth? Conspiracy Theory? How would we know? Sounds legit but who knows and the website seems a bit questionable. I'm especially interrested in what Sophie thinks. https://www.deepcapture.com/2021/09/affidavit-of-ltc-theresa-long-m-d-in-support-of-a-motion-for-a-preliminary-injunction-order/ Below ...
by D1984
Thu Sep 16, 2021 1:15 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: College is expensive
Replies: 16
Views: 610

Re: College is expensive

On the bright side, one of her friends accepted an offer at Ford for $78,000 a year. I don't know what fresh out salaries are nowadays for STEM kids, but that seems damn good. Still only covers one year costs at ND, whereas my 1989 starting salary of $30,500 would have more than covered 4 years of ...
by D1984
Mon Sep 13, 2021 2:41 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3209
Views: 890487

Re: The GOLD scream room

What a useless asset. I’ve held for 10-12 years and doubled my money. Selling today. A CAGR of 6-7%? That doesn’t sound so bad. The problem is the opportunity cost. Over that time I would have quadrupled my money. You should have mega remorse for not loading up on Bitcoin 10-12 years ago. Within th...
by D1984
Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:26 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Kids: Then and Now
Replies: 92
Views: 33659

Re: Kids: Then and Now

WSJ article about college enrollment. Interesting throughout. It's heartening to see that the idea that college is a necessity is fading away, at least among males. Still sad that so many people, especially girls, are wasting their time with it. I suspect that a major reason girls want to go to col...
by D1984
Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:16 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Kids: Then and Now
Replies: 92
Views: 33659

Re: Kids: Then and Now

I think young men are much smarter than they are given credit for, even than they give themselves credit for, and that they are just doing a simple cost/benefit analysis. In the sixties you could get a job and raise a family straight out of high school. In the seventies and eighties there were good...
by D1984
Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:08 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Kids: Then and Now
Replies: 92
Views: 33659

Re: Kids: Then and Now

WSJ article about college enrollment. Interesting throughout. It's heartening to see that the idea that college is a necessity is fading away, at least among males. Still sad that so many people, especially girls, are wasting their time with it. I suspect that a major reason girls want to go to col...
by D1984
Mon Sep 13, 2021 11:22 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5150
Views: 446445

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

In case you are wondering why you haven't heard anything about the Florida Delta surge for a while.... From Florida Covid Dashboard. How to explain such a rapid decline? https://i.postimg.cc/TY7gcD5P/Screenshot-2021-09-12-151118.png I'm not exactly sure where you're getting the above data from....b...
by D1984
Wed Sep 08, 2021 9:09 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan
Replies: 1798
Views: 75157

Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

I see that you posted a link from The New York times.... Which is not a reliable news source. Rather, it is a propaganda outlet. The NY Times article was merely listing the studies and the results; the actual studies were published in the BMJ and the NEJM; I can cite those and provide links if you'...
by D1984
Wed Sep 08, 2021 9:06 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan
Replies: 1798
Views: 75157

Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

You might want to slow down and breathe before you attempt any more fact-checking. Lifesite news is not an Evangelical website (based on the common religious description). Rather, it has a heavy Roman Catholic orientation. Secondly, that particular editorial was written by a professor of the Univer...
by D1984
Wed Sep 08, 2021 8:41 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan
Replies: 1798
Views: 75157

Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

"Getting COVID is a much higher risk for getting blood clots than taking the vaccine" If by that statement, you mean that most people do not die within the first two weeks of receiving the clot shot, then I agree with you. Most people (the overwhelming huge majority) do not die within two weeks (or...
by D1984
Wed Sep 08, 2021 8:12 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan
Replies: 1798
Views: 75157

Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Risking the clot shot would be stupid, for me. “The Salk Institute study proves the assumption made by the vaccine industry, that the spike protein is inert and harmless, to be false and dangerously inaccurate.” https://www.lifesitenews.com/opinion/from-shots-to-clots-covid-vaccine-induced-blood-cl...
by D1984
Wed Sep 08, 2021 7:49 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan
Replies: 1798
Views: 75157

Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

The existence of safe, effective, low cost prophylaxis and treatments only illustrates the mal- intent of the globalists. There's no reason to risk the clot-shot... If you care about your health. The protocols have recently been updated. https://covid19criticalcare.com/covid-19-protocols/ https://w...
by D1984
Wed Sep 08, 2021 7:42 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan
Replies: 1798
Views: 75157

Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

If it turns out that global travel and public activities are restricted to only those who are vaccinated, will the unvaccinated here acquiesce? No. I'm not interested in risking my health to satisfy the globalist plot. I have no intention of bowing to their bribes, coercion, and extortion. I'm not ...
by D1984
Wed Sep 08, 2021 2:34 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Dollar cost averaging (DCA) calc for US stocks?
Replies: 0
Views: 251

Dollar cost averaging (DCA) calc for US stocks?

First of all, if the mods (Xan or others) believe this should be in the "Stocks" or "Other Discussions" section, please feel free to move it to said section. This board does not have an "Investing - Theory and General" section like Bogleheads has; if it did then I would definitely put this thread th...
by D1984
Tue Sep 07, 2021 9:55 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Vanguard to offer private equity
Replies: 2
Views: 343

Re: Vanguard to offer private equity

I’ll be interested in seeing how this goes over at Bogleheads. Clip from an email from vanguard: Now you can access private equity through Vanguard Vanguard is proud to partner with HarbourVest, a world-class global private equity firm, to offer you a unique opportunity to access this distinct and ...
by D1984
Tue Sep 07, 2021 8:27 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5150
Views: 446445

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

https://uca.edu/efirm/facultystaff/jhorpedahl/ Capture.JPG Vinny, are you posting random screenshots with no explanation again? The colors don’t excite me. The distribution non gaussian. The grammar is passable. What the hell are you posting, Vinny? No worries, Mark. If Vinny is incapable of postin...
by D1984
Mon Sep 06, 2021 4:56 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5150
Views: 446445

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

I saw this chart in an article that is now behind a paywall so I won't bother with the link. The point of the article is that there is no pattern to be recognized between blue states/red states, strict lockdown states, anti-lockdown states or any other measurement when it comes to fighting COVID. P...