Search found 646 matches

by D1984
Sat Jan 08, 2022 11:39 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Wages (e.g) at McDonalds
Replies: 13
Views: 368

Re: Wages (e.g) at McDonalds

If they raised their wages they would find that at the new higher wage there wasn't a shortage of workers any more. If there was still a shortage at that wage they would need to raise it until the market cleared. Ya, generally true. Except they would then also have to raise the price of their food ...
by D1984
Sat Jan 08, 2022 3:53 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2022 PP predictions
Replies: 43
Views: 1224

Re: 2022 PP predictions

"A former McDonald's CEO warns that a surge in retiring baby boomers amid ongoing hiring struggles will lead to a 'catastrophe'": https://www.businessinsider.com/boomer-retirement-catastrophe-us-economy-mcdonalds-ed-rensi-2022-1 Which asset(s) would a "major shortfall of workers" cause to rise and ...
by D1984
Fri Jan 07, 2022 4:05 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: PFFD Dividend ETF
Replies: 14
Views: 295

Re: PFFD Dividend ETF

Wondering on anyone's thoughts on ETFs like PFFD, currently 5.03% yield, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PFFD?p=PFFD&.tsrc=fin-srch Amazingly stable, other than a sharp drop in Mar 2020. 0.23 expense ratio. There are others I am looking at, PGX, SPFF, DIV, SDIV (others??) I've said a few times here...
by D1984
Tue Jan 04, 2022 6:35 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: My Juicy PP returned 11% for Year 2021
Replies: 1
Views: 234

Re: My Juicy PP returned 11% for Year 2021

Happy New Year, My Juicy PP returned 11.03% for year 2021. I updated my website with the returns: http://www.tightwadweb.com/customportfolio.html Take care. Two quick questions: 1. What are you using for Int'l small (SCZ) prior to 1975? We have good Int'l small data back that far (i.e. 1975 and aft...
by D1984
Wed Dec 22, 2021 6:15 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rates
Replies: 46
Views: 1957

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rates

The term safe withdrawal rate rates means something very specific … It is what it took to get through the worst outcomes we have had to date for a retirement period . It specifically pertains to 1907 , 1929 , 1937 , 1965 ,1966 . It took around 3.60% inflation adjusted to squeak through Today we loo...
by D1984
Mon Dec 20, 2021 7:47 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 169
Views: 3960

Re: Yay PP!

I actually think of it more as community service. I feel duped and I’m bitter because I wasted 10 years investing in 4x25 when I could have just stayed with a conventional portfolio and reaped the rewards. Veer off course and get burned. And what do you ask is the main differentiator between the PP...
by D1984
Mon Dec 20, 2021 5:14 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 169
Views: 3960

Re: Yay PP!

I actually think of it more as community service. I feel duped and I’m bitter because I wasted 10 years investing in 4x25 when I could have just stayed with a conventional portfolio and reaped the rewards. Veer off course and get burned. And what do you ask is the main differentiator between the PP...
by D1984
Fri Dec 17, 2021 9:24 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rates
Replies: 46
Views: 1957

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rates

50/50 to 60/40 OK, I just re-checked my spreadsheets I used to calculate this and not only did a 60/40 or 50/50 US stock/ITT portfolio survive 30 years at an inflation-adjusted 4% withdrawal, it survived 40 years (well, it would've survived even more than that....I stopped the test at 1976 because ...
by D1984
Fri Dec 17, 2021 8:36 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rates
Replies: 46
Views: 1957

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rates

To hold 4% over 30 years takes a 2% real return the first 15 years . But that could leave you with a buck the 31st year . So the balance is important too since we have to cover unexpected spending too . So it is easy to monitor along the way …certainly if five years in you are below that average a ...
by D1984
Tue Dec 14, 2021 1:58 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3410
Views: 959736

Re: The GOLD scream room

It’s unexpected inflation, not high inflation that according to the PP Bible motivates investors to buy gold. Inflation readings are higher than ever and real rates are negative. What else does gold need to move? Should I wait until inflation is at 10% and bonds <1% to catch a bid. If that’s the ca...
by D1984
Tue Dec 14, 2021 1:12 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3410
Views: 959736

Re: The GOLD scream room

That is my gripe ..real returns which are supposed to be what gold really seems to respond to as per Tyler’s article ,has been awful as real returns grow worse and worse on cash instruments. I mean if not now , when for gold ? At least show us something in a move up ,right ? Exactly, the economic c...
by D1984
Tue Dec 14, 2021 12:38 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3410
Views: 959736

Re: The GOLD scream room

It’s unexpected inflation, not high inflation that according to the PP Bible motivates investors to buy gold. Inflation readings are higher than ever and real rates are negative. What else does gold need to move? Should I wait until inflation is at 10% and bonds <1% to catch a bid. If that’s the ca...
by D1984
Tue Dec 14, 2021 12:20 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3410
Views: 959736

Re: The GOLD scream room

But why? Gold isn’t doing anything for you. But it is. Peace of mind. I don't have to have the top % return in investing. Your peace of mind is a false sense of security and built on quicksand. There is nothing special at all about the PP and it has proven once more this year that Gold is a useless...
by D1984
Tue Dec 14, 2021 12:14 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3410
Views: 959736

Re: The GOLD scream room

But why? Gold isn’t doing anything for you. But it is. Peace of mind. I don't have to have the top % return in investing. Your peace of mind is a false sense of security and built on quicksand. There is nothing special at all about the PP and it has proven once more this year that Gold is a useless...
by D1984
Tue Dec 14, 2021 12:07 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3410
Views: 959736

Re: The GOLD scream room

I think it has to do with investors realizing that the economy is weak, the individual is struggling and any rate hikes will result in a catastrophic outcome. No one believes the FED’s bullshit and continue to buy LTT’s accordingly. The economy is weak? Huh?!? Unemployment is at 4.2%, employers in ...
by D1984
Tue Dec 14, 2021 11:52 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3410
Views: 959736

Re: The GOLD scream room

But why? Gold isn’t doing anything for you. But it is. Peace of mind. I don't have to have the top % return in investing. Your peace of mind is a false sense of security and built on quicksand. There is nothing special at all about the PP and it has proven once more this year that Gold is a useless...
by D1984
Tue Dec 14, 2021 6:57 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Wealth Accumulation Portfolio for Child
Replies: 22
Views: 1067

Re: Wealth Accumulation Portfolio for Child

Fourth, when has a diversified portfolio of equities EVER gone down in real inflation-adjusted value value over 15 or 16 years? This actually was the case from 1966 to 1981 (inclusive) using S&P 500 data. So that is a 16-year period with negative real returns. Source: https://www.officialdata.org/u...
by D1984
Mon Dec 13, 2021 11:42 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Wealth Accumulation Portfolio for Child
Replies: 22
Views: 1067

Re: Wealth Accumulation Portfolio for Child

Interesting question. Stocks, stocks, and more stocks. Even though it's nice that they may be too young to pay taxes on dividends for a while, I think I would go with two slices: 1) a core made of an index fund, like total market or small cap blend. 85% of the starting portfolio in this core. 2) so...
by D1984
Wed Dec 08, 2021 11:55 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Another IRS attack on gold coins
Replies: 8
Views: 877

Re: Another IRS attack on gold coins

Shrugged – I agree in general but if most of your savings are in a 401 or IRA, then it is hard to avoid having gold there. KBG – Yes, the title sounds like click bait but it actually reflects my contempt for the IRS and its methods. Now, I managed to find a detailed analysis of this decision prepar...
by D1984
Sun Dec 05, 2021 2:49 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Markel Analysis PE of 7.
Replies: 4
Views: 430

Re: Markel Analysis PE of 7.

As someone who basically never sells the VP side of the portfolio, I try to buy things that I feel are high quality, durable, a good price, stable, etc, etc… TLDR What do folks think of Markel? I believe the PE is hovering around 7. The management has been around for a long time, I’m a fan of Tom G...
by D1984
Wed Dec 01, 2021 11:13 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan
Replies: 1991
Views: 126399

Re: Reasons why I will not be getting injected for the Wuhan

Today's reminder that the regime wants you dead. The virus exists, but the pandemic mainly exists between your ears. https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/dying-covid-19-patient-recovers-after-court-orders-hospital-administer-ivermectin My own personal opinion is that if someone wants to use ivermecti...
by D1984
Tue Nov 30, 2021 8:04 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Howard Marks - Winds of Change
Replies: 13
Views: 984

Re: Howard Marks - Winds of Change

D1984/Pug, I'm not sure geography rules will really do anything. I sat through a lecture by Charlie Cook (of The Cook Report fame) about 15 years ago and he mentioned that with the advent of highly precise geographic systems and data mining the ability to draw a congressional district the way you w...
by D1984
Sun Nov 28, 2021 6:04 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Howard Marks - Winds of Change
Replies: 13
Views: 984

Re: Howard Marks - Winds of Change

I stand corrected, nut job regardless. Having said the above, if I were the next Republican speaker I’d find a couple of democrats who made some outrageous statements and strip them of their committee assignments. I’d probably keep doing it until several were out. Then I’d ask the dems, when does t...
by D1984
Fri Nov 19, 2021 1:14 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP-like alternative portfolio for conservative retiree
Replies: 28
Views: 2514

Re: PP-like alternative portfolio for conservative retiree

That’s an amazing portfolio seajay. “The Golden Swedroe”? I initially thought your chosen backtesting time frame was responsible for the results but that’s not so. Impressive - though I’ve never met a retiree who could live with that kind of tracking error. The returns on this one are actually pret...
by D1984
Thu Nov 11, 2021 11:16 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Utilities: A Diversifier
Replies: 2
Views: 768

Re: Utilities: A Diversifier

You might want to backtest beyond a period of only generally falling rates (which we have had for the last 35 to 40 years) since utility performance was drastically different (and drastically worse) during periods of rising rates and rising inflation (like the mid-1960s to 1980) than it was during t...