Search found 730 matches

by D1984
Sun Feb 11, 2024 11:41 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Does high-interest policy constitute fiscal stimulus?
Replies: 3
Views: 196

Re: Does high-interest policy constitute fiscal stimulus?

Economy is "booming" because government boot is off its neck. And low-skill real wages got cut by whatever amount they increased the money supply minus the mandated increases in min wage. Unrelated content. Held my attention for an hour but couldn't get all the way through: https://elan.school/ Are...
by D1984
Sun Jan 14, 2024 12:53 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: I do not undestand the theory behind international PP at all
Replies: 25
Views: 11090

Re: I do not undestand the theory behind international PP at all

However, I still cannot understand why exactly wouldn't a standard US-based PP work for any person anywhere in the world provided they have a convenient way to invest in US securities and the local currency is freely and legally convertible. If the portfolio generates real returns, is it really imp...
by D1984
Sun Dec 31, 2023 12:50 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Harry Dent: ‘Crash of a Lifetime’ Coming in 2024
Replies: 15
Views: 42040

Re: Harry Dent: ‘Crash of a Lifetime’ Coming in 2024

Is there a reason to take this guy seriously? From what I can tell, here's the reason he gives for his prediction: I didn’t think it would be possible to keep pumping up something [the economy] on pure fumes — just printing money, throwing money into the markets, which keeps the rich, rich and spen...
by D1984
Sat Dec 30, 2023 4:54 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Harry Dent: ‘Crash of a Lifetime’ Coming in 2024
Replies: 15
Views: 42040

Re: Harry Dent: ‘Crash of a Lifetime’ Coming in 2024

Is there a reason to take this guy seriously? From what I can tell, here's the reason he gives for his prediction: I didn’t think it would be possible to keep pumping up something [the economy] on pure fumes — just printing money, throwing money into the markets, which keeps the rich, rich and spen...
by D1984
Wed Nov 29, 2023 3:47 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Why the big move in gold?
Replies: 27
Views: 37317

Re: Why the big move in gold?

Why would people buy gold with cash at 5%. Is the money supply increasing at 7%+ ? Why would people buy gold with cash at 20%? (asks the person in Argentina) Correct me if I'm wrong but I was of the understanding that at the moment the risk-free rate in Argentina was 133% (which isn't nearly as hig...
by D1984
Tue Oct 10, 2023 7:09 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: tax-loss harvesting question
Replies: 16
Views: 14656

Re: tax-loss harvesting question

Three things/issues to be aware of. One, why replace 25-year Treasuries with 30-year? I presume it is because you would rather buy brand new 30-year Treasuries at issue rather than buy (in the secondary market since the U.S. doesn't issue new 25-year maturity Treasuries) a 30-year Treasury that has ...
by D1984
Sat Sep 30, 2023 5:32 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Commodity Funds
Replies: 22
Views: 7562

Re: Commodity Funds

I don’t quite remember, Vinny, but I think anything with LP for Limited Partnership in the name is going to have a K-1. Cedar Fair is the amusement park stock I was trying to think of. Cedar Fair, L.P. ticker: FUN. K-1, not so much fun. O0 You are definitely correct as it is a partnership and not a...
by D1984
Tue Sep 26, 2023 3:30 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TLT cracks $90
Replies: 43
Views: 46957

Re: TLT cracks $90

Thoughts? At 16.7% of my PP... Getting close to the 15% rebalance band. I hope it doesn't happen this year but will in 2024. Will have to report my 2023 to FAFSA, so I do not want to sell anything from my brokerage accounts :-[ You have no lots of long Treasuries--or LTT ETF/mutual fund shares--you...
by D1984
Wed Sep 13, 2023 3:30 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Interviews With The Homeless
Replies: 10
Views: 2150

Re: Interviews With The Homeless

Needs to be easier for people to move to lower cost-of-living areas. Feds should subsidize movers and manage a national jobs database. No minimum wage = no unemployment. Make it easy to get food stamps for healthy food. No one is going to abuse it and eat too many vegetables. Maybe me and Vinny. FE...
by D1984
Mon Sep 11, 2023 12:39 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: International stocks?
Replies: 42
Views: 65762

Re: International stocks?

Some ideas I've considered in my PP : internal correlation of the portfolio and stock valuation Being in Canada I feel I can't do domestic stocks as our stock market has so many commodities (oil and gas producers, gold stocks etc) and sentiment about the commodities sector seems to trickle into our...
by D1984
Fri Sep 08, 2023 5:04 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Physical + Bullionvault + Paxos combo primer
Replies: 19
Views: 4833

Re: Physical + Bullionvault + Paxos combo primer

I remember a foolish poster once said that you had to discount all of the 1970's performance for gold because gold wasn't "truly free floating" until the 1980s. No one called him out on it despite that being the dumbest statement anyone has ever made about investing. Like, conveniently he decides t...
by D1984
Mon Sep 04, 2023 4:18 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 208
Views: 97696

Re: Gold (PAXG) lending at 7% rate

I see recent Nexo quotes for lending PAXG (gold) at 7%, staking at 5% (similar to lending, but where you lend to the 'system' rather than a individual, as I understand it, so 'safer'). Idea : Third 2x stock, two-thirds gold - via PAXG that's lent (at a 7% rate). 4.6% proportioned benefit. Has the s...
by D1984
Mon Aug 28, 2023 12:34 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: What happens to I-bonds if rates plummet again
Replies: 46
Views: 30697

Re: What happens to I-bonds if rates plummet again

Still think the ladders are too complicated I've been thinking the opposite. Over here (UK) and our TIPS (index linked gilts) are pretty much at around 1% real yields across the yield curve https://www.yieldgimp.com/index-linked-gilt-yields Target 2.3% real from that, 33% initial allocation and tha...
by D1984
Tue Aug 15, 2023 9:15 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Which is worse?
Replies: 18
Views: 11889

Re: Which is worse?

That is a fair point. And the free market IS penalizing Disney. Their movies are bombing and park attendance is way down YOY. Same with Bud Light and Target. But it's not so simple. If I want to not buy stock in Disney or Target bc I don't agree with their "values", that means I can't buy any index...
by D1984
Mon Aug 14, 2023 3:29 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement
Replies: 45
Views: 20546

Re: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement

a 60/40 has ended 30 years with more then one started with 90% of all 123 rolling 30 year cycles to date . 67% of the time it ended with 2x what you started with , and 50% of the time 3x what you ended with . this is at a 4% inflation adjusted draw You willing to bet you'd not be in that 10%? That ...
by D1984
Thu Aug 10, 2023 10:21 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us
Replies: 2107
Views: 818193

Re: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us

I welcome any other thoughts and constructive criticisms others may have on the book project. :) One more quick question: Is there a particular reason you chose global government bonds vs, say, a US intermediate-term bond ETF? I ask not out of US-centered parochialism but rather because a deep stud...
by D1984
Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:30 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement
Replies: 45
Views: 20546

Re: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement

base rate is 1.86% so it is an assumption that the inflation kicker will generate the rest ..but lower inflation expectations will see that kicker fall My understanding is that this is not the case (i.e. Mr. Roth is not depending on a high inflation kicker to generate returns that will allow him to...
by D1984
Wed Aug 09, 2023 1:45 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement
Replies: 45
Views: 20546

Re: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement

the flaw here is there is still a considerable amount of sequence risk at work . it takes at least a 2% real return the first 15 years of a 30 year retirement for 4% inflation adjusted to hold . tips have performed poorly despite the higher inflation because of rising rates.. they may have a very h...
by D1984
Sun Aug 06, 2023 4:36 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Minimum AUM
Replies: 10
Views: 1699

Re: Minimum AUM

Hey folks. Bit of a niche question for you guys. What is the minimum AUM a fund has to have before you'd feel confident investing in it? As I'm sure we're all aware, low AUM is the primary reason a fund would shut down. If we assume you are in a taxable account you'd have to eat a bunch of gains. W...
by D1984
Wed Aug 02, 2023 11:11 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Substitutes
Replies: 41
Views: 51134

Re: Gold Substitutes

HB stated in his radio show, the reason he chose Gold is that it is the second most popular form of money after the USD. The rationale being is if people lost confidence in the USD, they would move to the next most popular money, Gold. So assuming Gold is not accessible, I would expect the best Gol...
by D1984
Wed Jul 26, 2023 5:41 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Substitutes
Replies: 41
Views: 51134

Re: Gold Substitutes

HB stated in his radio show, the reason he chose Gold is that it is the second most popular form of money after the USD. The rationale being is if people lost confidence in the USD, they would move to the next most popular money, Gold. So assuming Gold is not accessible, I would expect the best Gol...
by D1984
Mon Jul 24, 2023 10:58 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us
Replies: 2107
Views: 818193

Re: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us

Have you back tested your portfolio vs. the various Vanguard Target Retirement portfolios or other “commonly proposed” portfolios mentioned on this forum? It would be good to explain why yours is better. Just a suggestion. Yes, good point. Data availability is going to be a huge challenge. This is ...
by D1984
Mon May 22, 2023 5:21 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The debt celing soap opera explained so simply that even a member of Congress can understand it
Replies: 18
Views: 6803

Re: The debt celing soap opera explained so simply that even a member of Congress can understand it

Government needs to be shrunk/obstructed/gridlocked by any means necessary. If thats not what "republicans" are doing here, then its bad. Why? If you look at places with larger governments vs places with high HDI it seems that there is a correlation. This doesn't mean that having bigger government ...
by D1984
Sun May 21, 2023 3:46 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: When will indexing blow up?
Replies: 30
Views: 24493

Re: When will indexing blow up?

The cap weighted index reflect yesterdays best/worst. Buy the index and you weight more into yesterdays winners. Bogle suggested the ultimate being to buy initially in equal weights and hold that forever, let it find its own cap weighting. but that wasn't something that Vanguard could market. John ...
by D1984
Sun May 21, 2023 1:56 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The debt celing soap opera explained so simply that even a member of Congress can understand it
Replies: 18
Views: 6803

Re: The debt celing soap opera explained so simply that even a member of Congress can understand it

yeah its that simple. Relatedly, r/ "news" has devolved into leftist rage-porn. https://old.reddit.com/r/news/top/?sort=top&t=week OK, so how is the threatened default not the GOP's fault? This whole debacle only seems to happen when we have Republican control of one or both houses and we have a De...