Search found 659 matches

by D1984
Mon May 16, 2022 6:16 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Desert Looking Glass portfolio?
Replies: 15
Views: 223

Re: The Desert Looking Glass portfolio?

Cool story. Did you buy that portfolio yet =) Hahah good question! Last weekend we started moving money into position, but we're going in over 10 months. We got to our crazy cash position due to our hyper-conservativeness and see no compelling reason to suddenly change.... And yeah, it was fun tryi...
by D1984
Wed May 11, 2022 7:58 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: US / International weight
Replies: 12
Views: 627

Re: US / International weight

Tyler @ Portfolio Charts offered some typically insightful thoughts in response to an earlier question in these forums about the possibility of adding international stocks to the PP or GB: "Q: One additional question: Have you considered a slice of international, for diversification? I realize that...
by D1984
Mon May 09, 2022 12:47 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 46
Views: 1515

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

I think property owning is smart but I’m just too lazy to do it. It’s enough of a pain to check on my bank box and that’s walking distance. Why not buy TIPWX/TIPRX (TIPWX is the instl share class and TIPRX is the investor share class; I believe minimum initial purchase on these is $100K and $2,500 ...
by D1984
Thu May 05, 2022 2:45 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 46
Views: 1515

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

https://youtu.be/IG7sww5NtVA "No Shelter" is (mostly) right....Treasuries, gold, growth stocks, value stocks, foreign stocks, EM stocks, BTC.....all down hard today. With that said, there HAVE been several ports in the storm both today and for the YTD so far as a whole. Managed futures funds of all...
by D1984
Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:47 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 471
Views: 19544

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

IMHO This is a US proxy war with Russia. NATO is a group of mutual defense, IE Ukraine becomes a US military base. Hypersonic weapons can already easily reach Russia. The west (the US) does not need the Ukraine as a military base. It's not going to take much to shock the world by Russia shutting of...
by D1984
Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:08 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 471
Views: 19544

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

IMHO This is a US proxy war with Russia. NATO is a group of mutual defense, IE Ukraine becomes a US military base. Hypersonic weapons can already easily reach Russia. The west (the US) does not need the Ukraine as a military base. It's not going to take much to shock the world by Russia shutting of...
by D1984
Mon Mar 07, 2022 2:44 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 471
Views: 19544

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

IMHO This is a US proxy war with Russia. NATO is a group of mutual defense, IE Ukraine becomes a US military base. Hypersonic weapons can already easily reach Russia. The west (the US) does not need the Ukraine as a military base. It's not going to take much to shock the world by Russia shutting of...
by D1984
Sat Mar 05, 2022 7:02 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 471
Views: 19544

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

The way everyone is coming together to boycott Russia is a beautful thing. I hate what it’s doing to the average Russian but if Putin goes down, maybe it’ll be better for them too in the long run. John Bolton was interviewed on C-Span today. He quoted Woodrow Wilson: A nation that is boycotted is a...
by D1984
Mon Feb 28, 2022 10:01 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 471
Views: 19544

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

You know who didn’t buy the narrative that Putin was going to invade? Zelensky. I love the guy and everything. He’s a hero. But intelligence agencies warned him and for too long he insisted that all was well. That’s costing him and his country. Maybe....but it's just as possible that he was insisti...
by D1984
Wed Feb 23, 2022 6:20 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: 100% stocks with almost no downside risk
Replies: 5
Views: 7577

Re: 100% stocks with almost no downside risk

If I felt compelled to do something (an options + QQQ...and/or a variant of QQQ) like this, I wouldn't fool around with deep ITM puts (i.e. puts that are far in the money because they are above the current price of the underlying asset). I wouldn't mess with puts that are ITM at all. Instead, I migh...
by D1984
Sun Feb 20, 2022 5:13 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How do annual rebalanced allocations like Golden Butterfly compare with monthly TAA
Replies: 3
Views: 508

Re: How do annual rebalanced allocations like Golden Butterfly compare with monthly TAA

article here https://i.ibb.co/j8bXmW7/DMS-vs-Golden-Butterfly.png https://i.ibb.co/7nGf1HF/Screen-Shot-2022-02-20-at-2-29-02-PM.jpg Just curious....how does the 60/40 compare--in terms of annual CAGR, MaxDD, alpha, Sharpe, Sortino, Ulcer Index, etc--with, say, an annually rebalanced blend of 80% IT...
by D1984
Mon Feb 14, 2022 2:23 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Emergency Fed Meeting Scheduled for Monday
Replies: 15
Views: 1201

Re: Re: Emergency Fed Meeting Scheduled for Monday

Housing alone is up tremendously. Both in purchase prices and in rents. Rents are nuts right now. Food, up a lot. Bacon is often $10 a pound. Fuel, up a lot. Cars and trucks are at unimaginable levels. Clothing seems to be up at some places, but probably not much overall. But yeah, other than housi...
by D1984
Sun Feb 13, 2022 10:27 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Emergency Fed Meeting Scheduled for Monday
Replies: 15
Views: 1201

Re: Emergency Fed Meeting Scheduled for Monday

I don’t usually worry about what the numbers really are. But I decided to see what shadowstats.com has right now. Official inflation: 7.5% If using <1990 method: 10% If using <1980 method: 15% I feel certain we are in true double digits. I can't walk a mile in your shoes so I can't say whether your...
by D1984
Sat Jan 08, 2022 11:39 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Wages (e.g) at McDonalds
Replies: 13
Views: 1115

Re: Wages (e.g) at McDonalds

If they raised their wages they would find that at the new higher wage there wasn't a shortage of workers any more. If there was still a shortage at that wage they would need to raise it until the market cleared. Ya, generally true. Except they would then also have to raise the price of their food ...
by D1984
Sat Jan 08, 2022 3:53 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2022 PP predictions
Replies: 44
Views: 4043

Re: 2022 PP predictions

"A former McDonald's CEO warns that a surge in retiring baby boomers amid ongoing hiring struggles will lead to a 'catastrophe'": https://www.businessinsider.com/boomer-retirement-catastrophe-us-economy-mcdonalds-ed-rensi-2022-1 Which asset(s) would a "major shortfall of workers" cause to rise and ...
by D1984
Fri Jan 07, 2022 4:05 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: PFFD Dividend ETF
Replies: 14
Views: 1152

Re: PFFD Dividend ETF

Wondering on anyone's thoughts on ETFs like PFFD, currently 5.03% yield, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PFFD?p=PFFD&.tsrc=fin-srch Amazingly stable, other than a sharp drop in Mar 2020. 0.23 expense ratio. There are others I am looking at, PGX, SPFF, DIV, SDIV (others??) I've said a few times here...
by D1984
Tue Jan 04, 2022 6:35 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: My Juicy PP returned 11% for Year 2021
Replies: 1
Views: 458

Re: My Juicy PP returned 11% for Year 2021

Happy New Year, My Juicy PP returned 11.03% for year 2021. I updated my website with the returns: http://www.tightwadweb.com/customportfolio.html Take care. Two quick questions: 1. What are you using for Int'l small (SCZ) prior to 1975? We have good Int'l small data back that far (i.e. 1975 and aft...
by D1984
Wed Dec 22, 2021 6:15 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rates
Replies: 46
Views: 3895

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rates

The term safe withdrawal rate rates means something very specific … It is what it took to get through the worst outcomes we have had to date for a retirement period . It specifically pertains to 1907 , 1929 , 1937 , 1965 ,1966 . It took around 3.60% inflation adjusted to squeak through Today we loo...
by D1984
Mon Dec 20, 2021 7:47 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 273
Views: 21823

Re: Yay PP!

I actually think of it more as community service. I feel duped and I’m bitter because I wasted 10 years investing in 4x25 when I could have just stayed with a conventional portfolio and reaped the rewards. Veer off course and get burned. And what do you ask is the main differentiator between the PP...
by D1984
Mon Dec 20, 2021 5:14 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 273
Views: 21823

Re: Yay PP!

I actually think of it more as community service. I feel duped and I’m bitter because I wasted 10 years investing in 4x25 when I could have just stayed with a conventional portfolio and reaped the rewards. Veer off course and get burned. And what do you ask is the main differentiator between the PP...
by D1984
Fri Dec 17, 2021 9:24 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rates
Replies: 46
Views: 3895

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rates

50/50 to 60/40 OK, I just re-checked my spreadsheets I used to calculate this and not only did a 60/40 or 50/50 US stock/ITT portfolio survive 30 years at an inflation-adjusted 4% withdrawal, it survived 40 years (well, it would've survived even more than that....I stopped the test at 1976 because ...
by D1984
Fri Dec 17, 2021 8:36 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rates
Replies: 46
Views: 3895

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rates

To hold 4% over 30 years takes a 2% real return the first 15 years . But that could leave you with a buck the 31st year . So the balance is important too since we have to cover unexpected spending too . So it is easy to monitor along the way …certainly if five years in you are below that average a ...
by D1984
Tue Dec 14, 2021 1:58 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3494
Views: 1048625

Re: The GOLD scream room

It’s unexpected inflation, not high inflation that according to the PP Bible motivates investors to buy gold. Inflation readings are higher than ever and real rates are negative. What else does gold need to move? Should I wait until inflation is at 10% and bonds <1% to catch a bid. If that’s the ca...
by D1984
Tue Dec 14, 2021 1:12 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3494
Views: 1048625

Re: The GOLD scream room

That is my gripe ..real returns which are supposed to be what gold really seems to respond to as per Tyler’s article ,has been awful as real returns grow worse and worse on cash instruments. I mean if not now , when for gold ? At least show us something in a move up ,right ? Exactly, the economic c...
by D1984
Tue Dec 14, 2021 12:38 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3494
Views: 1048625

Re: The GOLD scream room

It’s unexpected inflation, not high inflation that according to the PP Bible motivates investors to buy gold. Inflation readings are higher than ever and real rates are negative. What else does gold need to move? Should I wait until inflation is at 10% and bonds <1% to catch a bid. If that’s the ca...