Search found 666 matches

by D1984
Sun Jun 26, 2022 12:52 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 172
Views: 8112

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

I need to remember where I got my data and see if I can run those numbers again...just by the math of it (using PV monthly returns) I'd be a bit surprised if daily data didn't at least show low 20%s. The site I (and many others) used to use was peaktotrough.com but that stopped updating years ago. ...
by D1984
Thu Jun 16, 2022 9:39 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin in the PP?
Replies: 78
Views: 10732

Re: Bitcoin in the PP?

A Keynesian and a Monetarist walk into a bar.... Naa, Austrian. Aggregate prices can't rise without money printing. Otherwise, something has to fall in price in order for something else to increase. There are two important qualifiers you need to add to this statement; otherwise, it is not 100% corr...
by D1984
Tue Jun 14, 2022 7:15 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 1463
Views: 486726

Re: Stock scream room

Joypog, something doesn't look right. There's no way the PP would be returning a CAGR of 12.59% for that time period. It should be closer to 6% or a little less. Hmm I reran the test and here are the settings and results. I'm a n00b with PV, so I may well be wrong. Is there a setting that's off? I ...
by D1984
Sun Jun 12, 2022 1:26 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 534
Views: 211721

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

I have RSP on the brain today (equal-weight S&P500 ETF). A GB with 40% RSP beats a GB with 20% ISV and 20% VTI, but the limiting factor for my backtesting (portfoliovisualizer.com) is when GLD started. It makes sense, RSP is not an implicit growth strategy (unlike cap-weighted ETFs) is therefore mo...
by D1984
Tue May 31, 2022 8:55 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings
Replies: 217
Views: 5593

Re: What polcies can be done to prevent mass shootings

It was a serious response since I wasn’t sure what to make of your response. I was on the fence as to whether it was satirical. O0 But I am quite serious about buying up the ammo. (It would then have to be safely guarded or destroyed). If enough dedicated rich people kept buying it up, we’d see few...
by D1984
Mon May 23, 2022 7:12 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Backtesting the PP all the way to 1971?
Replies: 13
Views: 641

Re: Backtesting the PP all the way to 1971?

Thanks Xan! I'm always a bit self-conscious about pushing paid products on forums, as I dislike spam just as much as the next guy. But I really appreciate your support, and I hope you guys find the new stuff useful. Hi Tyler, I was wondering....is there any chance of any of the PortfolioCharts back...
by D1984
Mon May 23, 2022 4:32 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Backtesting the PP all the way to 1971?
Replies: 13
Views: 641

Re: Backtesting the PP all the way to 1971?

I admit this qualifies as a shameless plug (and I promise not to make a habit of it), but another option is to try one of my new standalone backtesting tools . You'll have to supply your own source data, but the individual PP asset histories aren't too hard to dig up and you also have control over ...
by D1984
Mon May 16, 2022 6:16 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Joypog's regularly changing AA (originally "The Desert Looking Glass Portfolio")
Replies: 32
Views: 1287

Re: The Desert Looking Glass portfolio?

Cool story. Did you buy that portfolio yet =) Hahah good question! Last weekend we started moving money into position, but we're going in over 10 months. We got to our crazy cash position due to our hyper-conservativeness and see no compelling reason to suddenly change.... And yeah, it was fun tryi...
by D1984
Wed May 11, 2022 7:58 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: US / International weight
Replies: 14
Views: 1379

Re: US / International weight

Tyler @ Portfolio Charts offered some typically insightful thoughts in response to an earlier question in these forums about the possibility of adding international stocks to the PP or GB: "Q: One additional question: Have you considered a slice of international, for diversification? I realize that...
by D1984
Mon May 09, 2022 12:47 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 172
Views: 8112

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

I think property owning is smart but I’m just too lazy to do it. It’s enough of a pain to check on my bank box and that’s walking distance. Why not buy TIPWX/TIPRX (TIPWX is the instl share class and TIPRX is the investor share class; I believe minimum initial purchase on these is $100K and $2,500 ...
by D1984
Thu May 05, 2022 2:45 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutely brutal - 5/5
Replies: 172
Views: 8112

Re: Absolutely brutal - 5/5

https://youtu.be/IG7sww5NtVA "No Shelter" is (mostly) right....Treasuries, gold, growth stocks, value stocks, foreign stocks, EM stocks, BTC.....all down hard today. With that said, there HAVE been several ports in the storm both today and for the YTD so far as a whole. Managed futures funds of all...
by D1984
Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:47 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 520
Views: 27461

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

IMHO This is a US proxy war with Russia. NATO is a group of mutual defense, IE Ukraine becomes a US military base. Hypersonic weapons can already easily reach Russia. The west (the US) does not need the Ukraine as a military base. It's not going to take much to shock the world by Russia shutting of...
by D1984
Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:08 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 520
Views: 27461

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

IMHO This is a US proxy war with Russia. NATO is a group of mutual defense, IE Ukraine becomes a US military base. Hypersonic weapons can already easily reach Russia. The west (the US) does not need the Ukraine as a military base. It's not going to take much to shock the world by Russia shutting of...
by D1984
Mon Mar 07, 2022 2:44 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 520
Views: 27461

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

IMHO This is a US proxy war with Russia. NATO is a group of mutual defense, IE Ukraine becomes a US military base. Hypersonic weapons can already easily reach Russia. The west (the US) does not need the Ukraine as a military base. It's not going to take much to shock the world by Russia shutting of...
by D1984
Sat Mar 05, 2022 7:02 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 520
Views: 27461

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

The way everyone is coming together to boycott Russia is a beautful thing. I hate what it’s doing to the average Russian but if Putin goes down, maybe it’ll be better for them too in the long run. John Bolton was interviewed on C-Span today. He quoted Woodrow Wilson: A nation that is boycotted is a...
by D1984
Mon Feb 28, 2022 10:01 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 520
Views: 27461

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

You know who didn’t buy the narrative that Putin was going to invade? Zelensky. I love the guy and everything. He’s a hero. But intelligence agencies warned him and for too long he insisted that all was well. That’s costing him and his country. Maybe....but it's just as possible that he was insisti...
by D1984
Wed Feb 23, 2022 6:20 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: 100% stocks with almost no downside risk
Replies: 5
Views: 7766

Re: 100% stocks with almost no downside risk

If I felt compelled to do something (an options + QQQ...and/or a variant of QQQ) like this, I wouldn't fool around with deep ITM puts (i.e. puts that are far in the money because they are above the current price of the underlying asset). I wouldn't mess with puts that are ITM at all. Instead, I migh...
by D1984
Sun Feb 20, 2022 5:13 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How do annual rebalanced allocations like Golden Butterfly compare with monthly TAA
Replies: 3
Views: 603

Re: How do annual rebalanced allocations like Golden Butterfly compare with monthly TAA

article here https://i.ibb.co/j8bXmW7/DMS-vs-Golden-Butterfly.png https://i.ibb.co/7nGf1HF/Screen-Shot-2022-02-20-at-2-29-02-PM.jpg Just curious....how does the 60/40 compare--in terms of annual CAGR, MaxDD, alpha, Sharpe, Sortino, Ulcer Index, etc--with, say, an annually rebalanced blend of 80% IT...
by D1984
Mon Feb 14, 2022 2:23 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Emergency Fed Meeting Scheduled for Monday
Replies: 15
Views: 1461

Re: Re: Emergency Fed Meeting Scheduled for Monday

Housing alone is up tremendously. Both in purchase prices and in rents. Rents are nuts right now. Food, up a lot. Bacon is often $10 a pound. Fuel, up a lot. Cars and trucks are at unimaginable levels. Clothing seems to be up at some places, but probably not much overall. But yeah, other than housi...
by D1984
Sun Feb 13, 2022 10:27 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Emergency Fed Meeting Scheduled for Monday
Replies: 15
Views: 1461

Re: Emergency Fed Meeting Scheduled for Monday

I don’t usually worry about what the numbers really are. But I decided to see what shadowstats.com has right now. Official inflation: 7.5% If using <1990 method: 10% If using <1980 method: 15% I feel certain we are in true double digits. I can't walk a mile in your shoes so I can't say whether your...
by D1984
Sat Jan 08, 2022 11:39 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Wages (e.g) at McDonalds
Replies: 13
Views: 1283

Re: Wages (e.g) at McDonalds

If they raised their wages they would find that at the new higher wage there wasn't a shortage of workers any more. If there was still a shortage at that wage they would need to raise it until the market cleared. Ya, generally true. Except they would then also have to raise the price of their food ...
by D1984
Sat Jan 08, 2022 3:53 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2022 PP predictions
Replies: 44
Views: 4573

Re: 2022 PP predictions

"A former McDonald's CEO warns that a surge in retiring baby boomers amid ongoing hiring struggles will lead to a 'catastrophe'": https://www.businessinsider.com/boomer-retirement-catastrophe-us-economy-mcdonalds-ed-rensi-2022-1 Which asset(s) would a "major shortfall of workers" cause to rise and ...
by D1984
Fri Jan 07, 2022 4:05 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: PFFD Dividend ETF
Replies: 14
Views: 1409

Re: PFFD Dividend ETF

Wondering on anyone's thoughts on ETFs like PFFD, currently 5.03% yield, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PFFD?p=PFFD&.tsrc=fin-srch Amazingly stable, other than a sharp drop in Mar 2020. 0.23 expense ratio. There are others I am looking at, PGX, SPFF, DIV, SDIV (others??) I've said a few times here...
by D1984
Tue Jan 04, 2022 6:35 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: My Juicy PP returned 11% for Year 2021
Replies: 1
Views: 499

Re: My Juicy PP returned 11% for Year 2021

Happy New Year, My Juicy PP returned 11.03% for year 2021. I updated my website with the returns: http://www.tightwadweb.com/customportfolio.html Take care. Two quick questions: 1. What are you using for Int'l small (SCZ) prior to 1975? We have good Int'l small data back that far (i.e. 1975 and aft...
by D1984
Wed Dec 22, 2021 6:15 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rates
Replies: 46
Views: 4447

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rates

The term safe withdrawal rate rates means something very specific … It is what it took to get through the worst outcomes we have had to date for a retirement period . It specifically pertains to 1907 , 1929 , 1937 , 1965 ,1966 . It took around 3.60% inflation adjusted to squeak through Today we loo...