If you were a "rational" investor driven only by long-term backtests and CAGR (as so many claim to be), you'd only ever choose Emerging Markets or Canada, right? What's that insignificant green line down there? Oh, that's the S&P 500... have you heard of it? http://i68.tinypic.com/2lw6l95.png Fair ...

USMV and EFAV for the stock component, VBMFX and VFISX for the bond component 1992-May 2019 13.07 CAGR/11.54 Max DD Sharpe .49 If you want to take it back to 1990 you can use FFXSX (or maybe 80/20 or 85/15 FIGTX/CASHX rebalanced monthly or annually in PV and saved as a portfolio with a custom ticke...

If someone will find where the data is and post it here (link to) I’ll run the backtest and post results. And thanks..,very interesting twist. Novell didn't share the data with me, but he did plug the synthetic USMV data into his proprietary model and ran in it place of SPY, and it was better. The ...

iShares has a set of lower volatility ETFs which could produce better GEM signals which are less "whippy" than using regular S&P 500 and ACWI ex-US ETFs. These are USMV and ACWV. Let's compare them to VOO and VEU. Unfortunately, the history is very limited, only spans 2013-2019. USMV/ACWV CAGR 13.1...

ochotona wrote: ↑

Sun May 26, 2019 10:50 pm

I'm going to paper trade this one

What are you going to use to determine if you should be out or in during the two "bad months" of September and October? MACD? NH/NL? Relative Strength vs cash?

1984, what was your data source? Sep / Oct seem really to be bad months overall, I agree. Maybe one could use some indicators like MACD to determine whether taking action during Sep / Oct is justified, and for short periods of time like this, I'm thinking maybe buying puts from time to time would w...

Yeah just because something back tests doesn't mean it's not anything more than just random luck. In this case, a couple of the largest bear market drops happened to be between May and October, and a couple of the biggest rallies happened to be in the other months. These couple cases severely skew ...

Sell in May Go Away reference: https://stocktradersalmanac.com/Strategy.aspx Seems well-paired to an HBPP philosophy. Rules-based, simple, infrequent actions, low cost. The ETF would be DIA, seems to work better with Dow than S&P 500. Backtested to 1950... I can't verify with PV.com I just tested S...

No doubt former US senator Phil Gramm has a partisan axe to grind, but he has some impressive company. I seem to recall that Alan Greenspan also favored a re-calibration of the BLS indices a number of years ago. If I am not mistaken, he suggested that the current indices overstated inflation and wo...

I don't think you should assume that you'll profit from selling your house. Generally, housing prices keep up with inflation but don't do more than that, absent a housing bubble. What most of us do is regard the house as a consumption item. Your home equity figures as part of your net worth, but it...

The current Medicare-For-All bill reportedly proposes to ban private health insurance, which even the Canadian Supreme Court ruled was a human rights violation. A former aide for Chuck Schumer went on Tucker's show and argued that that was just a starting point, because Americans used to "meet in t...

This article about a ridiculously expensive ER bill for treating a cat bite came up on the Apple news feed: Total bill: $48,512, with $46,422 of that total for one preventive medication Medical service: Parker's wound was examined, and she received the first in a series of rabies shots, as well as ...