Search found 390 matches

by D1984
Sun May 26, 2019 9:28 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 611
Views: 111868

Re: Stock scream room

1984, what was your data source? Sep / Oct seem really to be bad months overall, I agree. Maybe one could use some indicators like MACD to determine whether taking action during Sep / Oct is justified, and for short periods of time like this, I'm thinking maybe buying puts from time to time would w...
by D1984
Sun May 26, 2019 3:53 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 611
Views: 111868

Re: Stock scream room

Yeah just because something back tests doesn't mean it's not anything more than just random luck. In this case, a couple of the largest bear market drops happened to be between May and October, and a couple of the biggest rallies happened to be in the other months. These couple cases severely skew ...
by D1984
Sat May 25, 2019 2:00 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 611
Views: 111868

Re: Stock scream room

Sell in May Go Away reference: https://stocktradersalmanac.com/Strategy.aspx Seems well-paired to an HBPP philosophy. Rules-based, simple, infrequent actions, low cost. The ETF would be DIA, seems to work better with Dow than S&P 500. Backtested to 1950... I can't verify with PV.com I just tested S...
by D1984
Mon May 20, 2019 4:37 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Will Trump be Re-elected?
Replies: 278
Views: 15117

Re: Will Trump be Re-elected?

No doubt former US senator Phil Gramm has a partisan axe to grind, but he has some impressive company. I seem to recall that Alan Greenspan also favored a re-calibration of the BLS indices a number of years ago. If I am not mistaken, he suggested that the current indices overstated inflation and wo...
by D1984
Sun Apr 07, 2019 11:37 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Best way to budget for mortgage payment?
Replies: 16
Views: 755

Re: Best way to budget for mortgage payment?

I don't think you should assume that you'll profit from selling your house. Generally, housing prices keep up with inflation but don't do more than that, absent a housing bubble. What most of us do is regard the house as a consumption item. Your home equity figures as part of your net worth, but it...
by D1984
Mon Mar 04, 2019 11:21 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Health Care Reform
Replies: 40
Views: 2366

Re: Health Care Reform

The current Medicare-For-All bill reportedly proposes to ban private health insurance, which even the Canadian Supreme Court ruled was a human rights violation. A former aide for Chuck Schumer went on Tucker's show and argued that that was just a starting point, because Americans used to "meet in t...
by D1984
Mon Mar 04, 2019 11:13 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Health Care Reform
Replies: 40
Views: 2366

Re: Health Care Reform

This article about a ridiculously expensive ER bill for treating a cat bite came up on the Apple news feed: Total bill: $48,512, with $46,422 of that total for one preventive medication Medical service: Parker's wound was examined, and she received the first in a series of rabies shots, as well as ...
by D1984
Mon Jan 21, 2019 3:39 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Funds
Topic: Permanent Portfolio Fund - 2018 Returns.
Replies: 7
Views: 766

Re: Permanent Portfolio Fund - 2018 Returns.

Kbg wrote:
Sun Jan 20, 2019 3:20 pm
I wish starting an etf wasn’t so expensive. I’d love to start a leveraged one. I was listening to a MEB Faber podcast and in his discussion with who ever it was they were talking about etf start up and maintenance costs...not cheap.
A leveraged PP ETF or a 2X or 3X leveraged market timing one?
by D1984
Mon Jan 21, 2019 3:38 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Funds
Topic: Permanent Portfolio Fund - 2018 Returns.
Replies: 7
Views: 766

Re: Permanent Portfolio Fund - 2018 Returns.

Awful. One of you please start a real HBPP ETF and charge 10 basis points above the costs of the underlying ETFs. Not a bad idea...although first I would I would like to see what percent of the the underperformance of PRPFX vs the HBPP was due to the mutual fund's allocation vs the "classic" PP (i....
by D1984
Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:52 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Replies: 358
Views: 50559

Re: Dual Momentum GEM + HBPP a great combo, easy to test

GEM with QQQ/EEM does quite nicely. 1. Backtest is way short - bad 2. Still have the dollar effect 3. Normally when the US market leads it's tech driven, normally when Emerging leads it's commodities driven - good If one was to do this...probably need to study up on how China is handled. Obviously ...
by D1984
Sun Jan 06, 2019 9:51 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Desert Portfolio Question
Replies: 28
Views: 5095

Re: Desert Portfolio Question

What was not quite true? If anything pops out of that chart I posted, it's that the relationship between 10 year treasury yields and inflation is not at all straightforward. Your blanket statement that treasuries reliably lag inflation doesn't really capture it. I posted it to explain my main conce...
by D1984
Thu Oct 18, 2018 1:25 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Universal Basic Income vs Universal Basic Assets
Replies: 50
Views: 4841

Re: Universal Basic Income vs Universal Basic Assets

I think we need to be at the point where robots are doing pretty much everything before we start UBI. Only true if by "UBI" you mean we just take the per capita GDP and divide it equally amongst every citizen; that's so elatively far in the future (and so utopian) I don't think it's even worth cons...