Search found 1111 matches

by dragoncar
Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:29 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 521
Views: 149600

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

The SCV underperformance vs. TSM is indeed dramatic and has been for years now. Tyler's comment on his site about the theory behind the GB: "The large/small barbell works well for this but other options are also fine. The permanence of the value premium is also debatable, but it is not central to t...
by dragoncar
Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:39 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Dream Room
Replies: 549
Views: 227092

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Refis are so popular, everyone raised their rates this week. Nobody can beat my current rate, which is decent (sub-4) but nothing amazing. I guess there is too much demand, not enough processing staff. I hope it goes lower over the next months, but if coronavirus has a large impact, the supply side ...
by dragoncar
Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:58 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Realistic Expectations for Long Bonds
Replies: 72
Views: 24099

Re: Realistic Expectations for Long Bonds

Wasn't paying attention and suddenly my 30-years are sub-1%? Came back to find this discussion
by dragoncar
Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:47 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 155
Views: 85854

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

I found it interesting that this was posted last year: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-25/if-vix-goes-bananas-what-it-might-look I only understand some of those words. Glad I got cold feet about XIV (I held it briefly but realized I didn't fully understand it), plus KGBs ending of the 3x ETF ...
by dragoncar
Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:34 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 155
Views: 85854

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

How bout that xiv? I know you expected it to blow up some time but ouch.
by dragoncar
Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:50 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 155
Views: 85854

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Will rising rates affect the expenses on the 3x funds or your other strategy?
by dragoncar
Sat Dec 30, 2017 9:09 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 576
Views: 213395

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

Thanks again kbg! This portfolio has been good to me especially this year, but I have been feeling the same things you have from risk/reward perspective. Beyond risk, just the ulcer factor IMO is high since there is the potential for an urgent rebalance while I’m on vacation or angsting about decay ...
by dragoncar
Mon Dec 11, 2017 5:02 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 576
Views: 213395

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

So I'm considering adding some XIV but then I realized I was actually confused and it's the opposite of what I was expecting. My thought was that daily volatility hurts (decays) our 3x ETFs. Therefore we could hedge against decay by going long daily volatility. i.e. VIX But XIV is inverse so... I'm ...
by dragoncar
Fri Dec 08, 2017 4:22 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin giveaway! :)
Replies: 378
Views: 84996

Re: Bitcoin giveaway! :)

This is worth like fitty bucks $2k!!! now. Nice giveaway, hopefully you're rolling in so much dough you don't need it back!

Don't lose your wallets, people.
by dragoncar
Tue Jan 31, 2017 8:11 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Performance for 2016
Replies: 111
Views: 36789

Re: PP Performance for 2016

That's a great quote. The entire book is worth reading, for anyone interested in science, philosophy or religion. By the way, I'm guessing Pascal wouldn't have been thrilled with the advent of smart phones! I dunno... Looks to me like ol' Blaise is staring into his iPad in the avatar of yours. ;) Y...
by dragoncar
Tue Jan 31, 2017 5:15 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Tax software and form 8621 PFIC
Replies: 7
Views: 4756

Re: Tax software and form 8621 PFIC

Good idea, although that's probably more work than just paper filing to begin with. I assume you are preferring to e-file for speed/convenience? Anyone have a reason NOT to just paper file? I guess you'll delay your refund if that's an issue? I've read it may decrease the risk of audit to paper file...
by dragoncar
Tue Jan 31, 2017 2:44 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Tax software and form 8621 PFIC
Replies: 7
Views: 4756

Tax software and form 8621 PFIC

I've used TaxAct in the past to file this form for GTU/PHYS, around $15. Now they've upped the price and I'm wondering what other options are out there. What does everyone use?

I think worst case I can use the free version TaxAct and then fill out 8621 myself and paper file.
by dragoncar
Tue Jan 31, 2017 2:07 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: New Gold ETF - GLDW
Replies: 6
Views: 3397

Re: New Gold ETF - GLDW

I'd guess it's for people who thing global demand for gold will go up, but don't want additional currency exposure?
by dragoncar
Sun Jan 29, 2017 7:39 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Performance for 2016
Replies: 111
Views: 36789

Re: PP Performance for 2016

So if I've stuck with the PP through it's dog years, I'll probably also stick through a 100% equities portfolio through it's inevitable dog years?
by dragoncar
Sun Jan 29, 2017 4:47 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Performance for 2016
Replies: 111
Views: 36789

Re: PP Performance for 2016

Crap does nobody believe in gyroscopic investing anymore? I know the forum changed hands but now we need to change the domain name?
by dragoncar
Mon Jan 23, 2017 5:53 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer
Replies: 71
Views: 31634

Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

If you bemoan the poor state of political discourse nowadays but can't resist making bitter, snarky comments about your political opponents and their follies, foibles, and failures, understand that you are part of the problem . Be the change you want to see in the world. Are you talking to me? Beca...
by dragoncar
Mon Jan 23, 2017 5:46 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 576
Views: 213395

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

I did rebalance into gold/TLT but so far it's overall negative. Nice to beat the S&P over a 2 month period, but that can happen with almost any holding
by dragoncar
Thu Jan 19, 2017 11:24 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer
Replies: 71
Views: 31634

Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

I sense that we are about to have a climate change thread. :) Improved air quality and a layer of protection from widespread grid outages are reasons enough to pursue local wind and solar installations. Extra benefit if costs are lower. Uh, air quality and grid outages are just an invention of the ...
by dragoncar
Wed Jan 18, 2017 5:57 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Complete list of bullion?
Replies: 24
Views: 9168

Re: Complete list of bullion?

Knorr makes a killer boullion.
by dragoncar
Wed Jan 18, 2017 2:17 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer
Replies: 71
Views: 31634

Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

Who's fighting solar? I'm not a fan of rooftop solar (so ugly) but I'd love for my utility to build plenty of solar and give me a fat discount. If they need funding, they can offer a deal where I pay for the panels and they give me the output.
by dragoncar
Thu Jan 12, 2017 2:22 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Is America Safe, Or Not?
Replies: 30
Views: 9296

Re: Is America Safe, Or Not?

I think the comment is forgivable if not intended to be be offensive, but the correct response is to apologize not rage quit and imply that the offended party is wrong.

I say this because it didn't initially strike me as offensive either, but dualstow made it extremely clear with his analogy.
by dragoncar
Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:47 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Google Sheets pulling wrong price for TLT
Replies: 25
Views: 8281

Re: Google Sheets pulling wrong price for TLT

Google is missing TLT data in general for the last few days. I like Google's portfolio viewer the best for interface and features, but their historical data is kinda crap. If anyone has another suggestion for a site where I can enter my purchases/sales and it shows me the portfolio over time (not ju...
by dragoncar
Tue Jan 03, 2017 6:19 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Performance for 2016
Replies: 111
Views: 36789

Re: PP Performance for 2016

I mostly use a PP (last year included some 2xPP), but this is IRR of my entire net worth and savings, so it includes some other returns over my entire assets (real estate, cash on hand, etc.). 1 YR - 9.3% 3 YR - 4.8% 5 YR - 5.6% "lifetime" 4.6% (CAGR) - it was up to something like 8% lifetime earlie...
by dragoncar
Thu Dec 29, 2016 10:44 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: IMPORTANT: PP FORUM *NOT* GOING AWAY
Replies: 48
Views: 18462

Re: IMPORTANT: PP FORUM GOING AWAY

Will you make the data available for download? Some of the threads are certainly worth keeping for posterity
by dragoncar
Wed Dec 21, 2016 3:40 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Coin Counterfeiting today
Replies: 39
Views: 15290

Re: Gold Coin Counterfeiting today

It could have been destructive or uneconomical testing, though