Search found 1111 matches

by dragoncar
Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:29 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 521
Views: 137996

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

The SCV underperformance vs. TSM is indeed dramatic and has been for years now. Tyler's comment on his site about the theory behind the GB: "The large/small barbell works well for this but other options are also fine. The permanence of the value premium is also debatable, but it is not central to t...
by dragoncar
Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:39 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Dream Room
Replies: 549
Views: 211889

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Refis are so popular, everyone raised their rates this week. Nobody can beat my current rate, which is decent (sub-4) but nothing amazing. I guess there is too much demand, not enough processing staff. I hope it goes lower over the next months, but if coronavirus has a large impact, the supply side ...
by dragoncar
Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:58 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Realistic Expectations for Long Bonds
Replies: 72
Views: 22076

Re: Realistic Expectations for Long Bonds

Wasn't paying attention and suddenly my 30-years are sub-1%? Came back to find this discussion
by dragoncar
Thu Feb 08, 2018 8:47 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 141
Views: 79828

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

I found it interesting that this was posted last year: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-25/if-vix-goes-bananas-what-it-might-look I only understand some of those words. Glad I got cold feet about XIV (I held it briefly but realized I didn't fully understand it), plus KGBs ending of the 3x ETF ...
by dragoncar
Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:34 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 141
Views: 79828

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

How bout that xiv? I know you expected it to blow up some time but ouch.
by dragoncar
Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:50 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 141
Views: 79828

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Will rising rates affect the expenses on the 3x funds or your other strategy?
by dragoncar
Sat Dec 30, 2017 9:09 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 576
Views: 201981

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

Thanks again kbg! This portfolio has been good to me especially this year, but I have been feeling the same things you have from risk/reward perspective. Beyond risk, just the ulcer factor IMO is high since there is the potential for an urgent rebalance while I’m on vacation or angsting about decay ...
by dragoncar
Mon Dec 11, 2017 5:02 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 576
Views: 201981

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

So I'm considering adding some XIV but then I realized I was actually confused and it's the opposite of what I was expecting. My thought was that daily volatility hurts (decays) our 3x ETFs. Therefore we could hedge against decay by going long daily volatility. i.e. VIX But XIV is inverse so... I'm ...
by dragoncar
Fri Dec 08, 2017 4:22 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin giveaway! :)
Replies: 381
Views: 77420

Re: Bitcoin giveaway! :)

This is worth like fitty bucks $2k!!! now. Nice giveaway, hopefully you're rolling in so much dough you don't need it back!

Don't lose your wallets, people.
by dragoncar
Tue Jan 31, 2017 8:11 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Performance for 2016
Replies: 118
Views: 34551

Re: PP Performance for 2016

That's a great quote. The entire book is worth reading, for anyone interested in science, philosophy or religion. By the way, I'm guessing Pascal wouldn't have been thrilled with the advent of smart phones! I dunno... Looks to me like ol' Blaise is staring into his iPad in the avatar of yours. ;) Y...
by dragoncar
Tue Jan 31, 2017 5:15 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Tax software and form 8621 PFIC
Replies: 7
Views: 4537

Re: Tax software and form 8621 PFIC

Good idea, although that's probably more work than just paper filing to begin with. I assume you are preferring to e-file for speed/convenience? Anyone have a reason NOT to just paper file? I guess you'll delay your refund if that's an issue? I've read it may decrease the risk of audit to paper file...
by dragoncar
Tue Jan 31, 2017 2:44 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Tax software and form 8621 PFIC
Replies: 7
Views: 4537

Tax software and form 8621 PFIC

I've used TaxAct in the past to file this form for GTU/PHYS, around $15. Now they've upped the price and I'm wondering what other options are out there. What does everyone use?

I think worst case I can use the free version TaxAct and then fill out 8621 myself and paper file.