Looking at the results I'm not sure why one would do this (just looking at what was posted)? The PP is one of the more stable popular ports that exist. If one can't even handle what the PP dishes out for volatility perhaps go more cash or just don't do a PP. I have a plain vanilla PP which I don't ...

SLK23, I commend you for doing the work and suggesting the approach, but I think trend-following the three volatile components has been shown to be a better approach. Why exit good performing assets just because others are doing badly and dragging the whole portfolio down? That's like group punishm...

Comparing buy and hold ("Long") with the 200MA long/all cash system ("200MA Long"). Note the CAGR and Max Drawdown vs. Start figures:

I know moving averages and timing have been discussed with regard to the individual components in a portfolio, but has anyone experimented with an entire portfolio's MA? For example, here's a portfolio composed of equal parts stocks (VTI), gold (GLD), and long term treasuries (TLT). It's indexed so ...

Interesting idea to short the smaller contracts. However, aren't some of them fairly low volume with large bid/ask spreads? I've read that's the case for the smaller gold contracts, for example. I think I'd feel more comfortable staying with the very liquid full size contracts, filling in where need...

How would one rebalance with futures? Is it possible to trade fractions of a contract? I assume not, which means trades are in approx. $100K blocks. Also, the 20%-30% max. DD stated earlier for the PP sounds high. 1980 had the largest DD that I'm aware of: 20% according to http://www.peaktotrough.co...

All of this macro economic analysis and debate is very interesting. But I think I've lost the thread; are you still discussing whether the Permanent Portfolio will continue to work? Naturally I hope it does still work because I don't feel qualified or courageous enough to place bets on my opinion ab...

Yes.  I wasn't making a prediction. No, that would be contrary to the principles of the permanent portfolio.  That's why I didn't rebalance months ago when it felt to me like stocks were about to top and gold would bounce.  It's a good thing I heeded Harry's warnings about placing bets and didn't t...

MediumTex wrote: This stock rally just looks tired, gold looks cheap, and bond yields look high.  That's JMHO, of course.

I agree, but I thought that 6 months ago too.  I guess it's like Alan Greenspan's warning about irrational exuberance; he was right but the turn didn't happen until 3 years later.

I use what I consider a moderate amount of data (~1.5 GB/month).  For a user like me it doesn't appear that any of the GSM alternate providers offer a significant savings over AT&T.  Still, I'd like to dump AT&T for threatening to throttle my data access when I exceeded 2 GB one month with m...

Yeah, that makes sense. But I'd personally also be upset at missing out on the cash and gold parties. With the PP there's always a party! I think I understand the pros and cons of the PP and plan to stick with it for the long haul.  But I have to admit it's been a pretty dull party for almost a yea...

According to ETFreplay.com the VTI/GLD/TLT/SHY portfolio's YTD return is -0.4% (including dividends) as of 5/21.

http://etfreplay.com/combine.aspx

Goldman slashed its short- and long-term gold forecasts, a move that comes about six weeks after the firm had already turned even more bearish on the metal. Goldman now sees gold ending the year at $1,450, a forecast that came down from $1,600 at the end of February and $1,810 prior to that. Goldma...

D wrote: Isn't PP going down big time last few days?

At the moment the chart of the PP (GLD, TLT, SHY, VTI) shows it near the long term trend line:
http://etfreplay.com/combine.aspx

Odds are this is simply a pullback to the trend line and the trend will continue.

Clive: isn't a 33 day period too small of a sample to make conclusions from?  The 2x PP (DGP, UBT, SSO) has done pretty well over almost two years: 77% compared to 38% from GLD, TLT, VTI (no rebalancing).

What is criminal to me is that banks have inserted themselves in between merchants and customers and charge 3% for every transaction, for what is basically a very basic data service that should only cost a maximum of 10 cents per transaction.  Wouldn't it be nice if, rather than having to get some ...

Even if you look at gold in isolation it's still above its 200 day moving average and so far the trend is intact.  Based on its past behavior it'll probably recover soon.

An interesting analysis of stock market returns:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011 ... aphic.html

I'm posting this here because it shows how important reducing volatility is, which the Permanent Portfolio does quite well.

Clive wrote: I've just quickly knocked up an Excel version that's somewhat similar

I think its ok but I've only quickly tested it so make sure you're happy that it works ok before using it for real.

Thanks Clive.  Looks good.

I don't think Browne's idea was that the four assets would move in lockstep with their economic drivers.  Rather, I would state the Permanent Portfolio theory as "for any economic climate, at least one asset should perform well enough to carry the portfolio." For example, under deflation ...

* Then again everything can just kind of work out and stocks continue to post good gains on recovery. Which is why the portfolio holds all four assets all the time and doesn't attempt market timing. So basically you're saying we're in a confused environment which is why the performance of the four ...

From a recent blog post: https://web.archive.org/web/20160324133409/http://crawlingroad.com/blog/2010/05/31/an-unknown-economic-climate/ Someone wanted to know: Are we sure there are no more than four economic investing climates that can affect the Permanent Portfolio? [....] What say you? Is there...

It's usually OK to trade a little early if it makes you feel more comfortable (say rebalancing at 20%/30% instead of 15%/35%). However trading too late can be a very costly mistake if the overweight asset crashes. Forgive me if this has been previously discussed, but has anyone back tested 20%/30% ...

Thanks for the replies.  I had a few incorrect assumptions such as the idea that the portfolio would be rebalanced annually even if none of the allocations are hitting the 15/35 bands.  I also assumed that the 15/35 bands would be hit several times a year. In Browne's Fail-Safe Investing book he sta...

What is recommended, rebalancing the portfolio as soon as one of the four categories is >35% or <15%, or rebalancing only annually?  Has anyone done any back testing to compare the two approaches?

TIA.