Search found 473 matches

by Wonk
Fri Mar 31, 2023 12:24 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This is the best time in 45 years to invest in the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 30
Views: 12325

Re: This is the best time in 45 years to invest in the Permanent Portfolio

No guarantees on 2023 yet, but if you were to invest in a cashless permanent portfolio when I wrote the original post (10.21.22), it would be up 14% as of yesterday's close. Again, no guarantees. But everything is performing just fine as it always has. Let's revisit again at the end of the year.
by Wonk
Thu Feb 23, 2023 10:53 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: IRA approved international gold custodians
Replies: 1
Views: 1226

IRA approved international gold custodians

Hi All, I did a quick search on this forum and did not find much in relation to IRA-approved international gold custodians. Diversification is a good thing and I think that would apply to physical gold held by a custodian internationally for a portion of assets. If anyone has information or referenc...
by Wonk
Fri Oct 21, 2022 8:26 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: This is the best time in 45 years to invest in the Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 30
Views: 12325

This is the best time in 45 years to invest in the Permanent Portfolio

Hello All, It's been years since I dropped by this forum but I felt the urge to do so in case anyone needed a pep talk. Consider this... -The permanent portfolio rises steadily in all market environments with one exception: tight money. We're in the tightest money environment since 1980-1982. -Tight...
by Wonk
Mon Jun 24, 2019 8:20 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 571
Views: 329491

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

It's been a while but I figured I would check back into this forum and resurrect this thread. I'm still running the leveraged PP (3x) and it's been a helluva ride. But I'm about to exit stage left within the next week or two, moving back to a 1xPP with a healthy chunk of cash. The last month has bee...
by Wonk
Wed Nov 08, 2017 11:32 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 571
Views: 329491

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

To be successful in financial markets, you just have to embrace the suck and manage it intelligently...because very few individuals can avoid the suck and those who spend most of their time trying to avoid the suck strongly tend to have screwed themselves over an investing lifetime. Truth! One of t...
by Wonk
Wed Nov 08, 2017 10:40 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 571
Views: 329491

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

Wonk, I got just one more question. Since you are buying the 45% Physical gold what re-balance band are you using. And what band do you use for the Spxl and the TMF? Thanks! I like your post on reducing risk!! I've been rebalancing at years end through new cash contributions rather than hitting the...
by Wonk
Thu Oct 19, 2017 11:29 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 571
Views: 329491

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

Wonk, Like thinking forward also about a Golden Butterfly approach. If you want 20% invested in Real Estate and you want to be passive can you suggest a High cap approach not helded directly? Unfortunately there's no free lunch. To be truly passive you'd need to turn to securities. Once REITs get i...
by Wonk
Thu Oct 19, 2017 11:11 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 571
Views: 329491

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

On counterparty risk a small step is to use UPRO instead of SPXL which has the side benefits of being a cheaper ETF and marginally better performance as a result. Not as good would be to replace UGLD with DGP but which puts the port with three different providers. That's true and worth pursuing on ...
by Wonk
Wed Oct 18, 2017 9:37 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 571
Views: 329491

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

Unless things get interesting, will probably not do an update until the end of the year. At that point I'll ask to see a show of hands for continuing these posts. If I get 10+ I'll continue. If less, Dec 2017 will be it. As CraigR mentioned, after a while there just isn't much to say. First time ba...
by Wonk
Fri Mar 03, 2017 2:26 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 571
Views: 329491

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

Wow, great to see this thread a few years later... In backtests to 2012, I'm coming up with a CAGR leverage factor of 1.7 and 2.5 on the 2x & 3x simulations respectively. Anyone else seeing the same? I've played with a few variables such as time frame, cash %, etc and the numbers are very similar in...
by Wonk
Tue Mar 18, 2014 10:38 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Got $1,000 saved for retirement?
Replies: 40
Views: 14052

Got $1,000 saved for retirement?

I suspect most lurking here don't fall into that category.  Sad nonetheless: http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2014/03/18/retirement-confidence-survey-savings/6432241/ It all boils down to discipline and setting priorities.  Wouldn't matter if most people were paid a million per ye...
by Wonk
Thu Mar 13, 2014 8:04 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: friction
Replies: 19
Views: 10242

Re: friction

Pointedstick, definitely one of the most entertaining and useful posts I've seen in some time.  Thanks for that. I constantly try to remind myself that time is running out.  We mourn those who pass, but sometimes we fail to make a connection that we're also 1 day/week/month/year closer to our own de...
by Wonk
Tue Mar 04, 2014 10:51 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Stabilize the dollar, crash commodities, bankrupt Russia
Replies: 3
Views: 3617

Re: Stabilize the dollar, crash commodities, bankrupt Russia

Ha!  Good luck with that plan. A weak dollar policy has been the only buoy to asset prices for the last 14 years--especially the last 5.  To implement what the author is suggesting, you'd have to eliminate QE & raise rates over 200bps.  Pushing real rates positive would definitely result in cheap go...
by Wonk
Sun Feb 16, 2014 11:21 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 571
Views: 329491

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

I would have thought decay would have shown up in four years of returns?  The annual 15/35 rebalance seems to help.  Appears to have a 13.8% annual return. From what I can see, decay happens in isolation.  In a leveraged portfolio with equally non-correlated assets, they seem to cancel each other o...
by Wonk
Sun Feb 16, 2014 11:14 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 571
Views: 329491

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

D1984 wrote: I am presuming (perhaps incorrectly) that the UGL/UBT/SSO/SHY portfolio is rebalanced as per #3 above?
Yes, that's correct.  Although, the portfolio has a start (& rebalance) date in January instead of December.  If the 15/35 bands are not breached, no rebalance takes place.
by Wonk
Thu Feb 13, 2014 8:25 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 571
Views: 329491

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

Wonk, something seems wonky with your 2013 numbers.  I track a 3x33% of the 1x, 2x, and 3x PPs using Google Finance.  Here are the 2013 results: 1x = -3.8% 2x = -8.3% 3x = -11.3% All of the portfolios were rebalanced in mid-May, and include interest and dividends.  Maybe your portfolio rebalanced a...
by Wonk
Thu Feb 13, 2014 8:34 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 571
Views: 329491

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

Any idea what the volatility was? Unfortunately, no.  But I would imagine it would be roughly 2x the standard PP. So roughly the same sharpe ratio ... you could theoretically dial it up to S&P-level returns with lower volatility or S&P-level volatility with higher returns (assuming past performance...
by Wonk
Wed Feb 12, 2014 8:08 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 571
Views: 329491

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

dragoncar wrote: Any idea what the volatility was?
Unfortunately, no.  But I would imagine it would be roughly 2x the standard PP. 
by Wonk
Wed Feb 12, 2014 9:49 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 571
Views: 329491

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

For fun I decided to go back and check on this portfolio.  Smart Money rolled into Market Watch in the last year or two and the nice portfolio tracking software vanished along with it.  I went to Morningstar to do some tracking.  Here are the results: $10,000 Funds: SSO UGL UBT SHY 01/2010-01/2014: ...
by Wonk
Thu Feb 06, 2014 4:08 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The Middle Class Is Steadily Eroding. Just Ask the Business World.
Replies: 16
Views: 7258

Re: The Middle Class Is Steadily Eroding. Just Ask the Business World.

In other words, you are just using the name and brand recognition to get people in the door? Ive seen this more and more among trainers who realize that crossfit programming isn't ideal for people just looking to stay healthy and fit but want the traffic through the door that crossfit provides. Oly...
by Wonk
Thu Feb 06, 2014 3:55 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The Middle Class Is Steadily Eroding. Just Ask the Business World.
Replies: 16
Views: 7258

Re: The Middle Class Is Steadily Eroding. Just Ask the Business World.

You're not the first person I've seen mention that micro-gyms are doing well.  Crossfit and similar programs really took off in the last decade.  You get what you pay for, I guess. Sometimes you get what you pay for.  I've been in or around this industry for a long time and anytime someone can call...
by Wonk
Thu Feb 06, 2014 10:14 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The Middle Class Is Steadily Eroding. Just Ask the Business World.
Replies: 16
Views: 7258

Re: The Middle Class Is Steadily Eroding. Just Ask the Business World.

Yeah, I go to a gym like that, but it's probably only 30 - 40% female.  It's on the edge of a large city, near a university, so the target demographic may be different.  Are you a crossfit affiliate? No.  We don't program olympic lifting because of the implied risk/reward with beginner and/or detra...
by Wonk
Thu Feb 06, 2014 8:06 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The Middle Class Is Steadily Eroding. Just Ask the Business World.
Replies: 16
Views: 7258

Re: The Middle Class Is Steadily Eroding. Just Ask the Business World.

I own several "crossfit ish" micro-gyms in affluent neighborhoods.  Our target demographic is 30-59, 60% female.  Average membership is $185/mo.  We've been absolutely crushing it for several years and no one complains about price.  A friend who owns a similar gym 10 miles away in a more middle-clas...
by Wonk
Thu Jan 16, 2014 1:55 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Will Gold Rebound This Year
Replies: 32
Views: 16591

Re: Will Gold Rebound This Year

Most asset classes rebound in some way after a >25% selloff--very rare if they don't.  Although I'd love to see a panic liquidation down to $1000 or so, I'm not betting on it.  I didn't add to any positions on the way down from $1900, but I've added heavily to current positions at these prices. A lo...
by Wonk
Thu Jan 16, 2014 1:13 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP thread at Bogleheads
Replies: 30
Views: 18165

Re: PP thread at Bogleheads

I'd be curious to see a CAGR comparison of a 50-50 or 60-40 standard boglehead portfolio to the permanent portfolio from 1972 to present.  Anyone have those numbers available?