Interesting interview => https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2afXagEgRQw 00:00 Introduction 00:28 Current State of Affairs in Washington 02:30 Government Accounting Trickery 05:08 Debt Ceiling and Defaulting on the Debt 10:32 Holding the Population Hostage 14:07 Constitutional Right to More Gov't Debt 2...

My question is, for the purposes of financial planning, how do you estimate your future investment returns? The whole thing just seems like a crapshoot, which I guess it is at some level. Personally, I just take the Baseline Return as detailed here => https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/long-term...

Out of curiosity, I compared the Weird Portfolio to one I'd played around with for some time (I call it 25s, or Golden Quarters), a hybrid of the GB and PP, but with more stock allocation, it is 25% TSM, 25% SCV, 25% Gold, 25% ITT. Any thoughts? Would suggest you try modelling the Quarters Portfoli...

From ZeroHedge

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/repor ... esolutions

Just had this emailed to me today. Nice touch with the voice over guy...
https://www.facebook.com/DangerDanAndre ... 489161231/

On second thought, is there a particular reason why BelangP uses a high dividend index fund Paul explained his reasoning in one of these podcasts https://www.fundyourretirement.com/?s=Paul+Belanger Unfortunately they changed the website layout, so I don't have a link to the particular talk anymore....

Just playing around with backtests. BelangP's model doesn't look too bad. You would have to model it with a high dividend ETF that went through a period where Bonds performed well though...

Mathjaks observation from a Gold perspective.

Thanks Mathjack,

Quite interesting. Is the only purpose of holding bonds to reduce volatility?
As an aside, just happened to come across this a couple of minutes ago.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v7_AS9CVZbY

But again my followup would be to ask whether there is even a weak correlation, in other words if the dollar is strengthening is it more likely (even a little bit) that foreign stocks will go either up or down? Hi Stuper, Have a listen to this slightly dated talk. Makes me wonder if we should be lo...

I don't really understand the relationship between foreign currencies and foreign stocks. Aren't they somewhat at odds with each other? So when a country's currency gets stronger, its stock prices can be affected negatively? I feel like I'm hearing conflicting advice on this issue. Some people say ...

Interesting comparison.
https://corcapital.com.au/wp-content/up ... 3-v2_1.pdf

But the fees make me think this fund is run by Mafia Mutual....

Interesting article

https://static.vgcontent.info/crp/intl/ ... epaper.pdf

ps: If anyone has other countries whitepapers on this, feel free to post.

Xan wrote: ↑

Tue Apr 11, 2023 10:31 am

It reminds me of that interview we've linked here several times with the guy whose name escapes me who invests in small businesses that do unique things.

Is this the interview you were thinking of?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a4_U6bS-cU4

It's cold & wet, I'm bored, so I present to you.... BelangP vs PP

https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webca ... ourne.html

Does anyone have any thoughts on the prospects of these options going forward for someone in the decumulation stage? They have all worked fine in the past. It's the future that's hard to know. Cannot comment on future prospects, but your allocation is similar to BelangP's. I think he uses 2:1 High ...

stuper1 wrote: ↑

Sat Apr 08, 2023 7:49 am

A 50/50 stock/gold split has a better average annual return than the traditional benchmark 60/40 portfolio.

So would you, or other forum members, feel comfortable with a 50/50 portfolio then?
https://www.merkinvestments.com/insight ... -12-10.php

Fun! I'd imagine that if the US "loses" reserve currency status, then you wouldn't want to have much of an allocation to international stocks. /crystal ball Hi Kriegs, agree, fun topic! Wonder if we could use what happened to Britain post WW2 as a guide to possible outcomes. Not sure where we can f...

What would Harry Browne do in this situation? Increase our gold allocation? Add an allocation to international stocks, and if so, how much and which sectors? Decrease our allocation to long-term Treasuries? What about short-term Treasuries? I welcome constructive input but again I don't really want...

Does anyone else want to take a stab at honestly describing their own "simple" set up? I mean, I assume that many here hold at least four assets in three accounts that each have different tax treatment, correct? Well... first the rationale! 1. Has to be easy for another family member to manage who ...

Semi-serious response to Maddy's original post

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C768oeSvJ5c

This allocation has a great ulcer index - but it's at the bottom of the table for almost all other metrics? I've spent quite some time playing with the charts and backtesting ideas - they're great and addictive but in the end they're tools. Given my rookie level of understanding I'd really like to ...

Those in turn lead me to try to understand what would be an optimal PP (or GB *) for a "countryless", itinerant person (a bit like me) but the more I research that topic, the more it's becoming intractable :) (I'm probably overthinking it but I'm really interested in understanding the theory). Well...

Good evening Witchcraft, Congratulations on your first post. It's late here in Australia so I will be brief. For my purposes I use Smithys GoldSmith portfolio (see footnote) and a retirement fund consisting of 2:1 International Fixed Interest (Hedged to AUD) to International Equities and 25% Gold ou...

For my pennies worth.... It's always good to have a plan B. For me, I plan to switch over to the BelangP portfolio when I consider the PP is no longer viable. HB said himself in his radio show, that if everything went to to pieces you would still have 25% Gold. What he didn't say was how not to reba...