Search found 1167 matches

by Hal
Tue May 17, 2022 3:18 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Random observation
Replies: 2
Views: 98

Re: Random observation

I Shrugged wrote:
Mon May 16, 2022 9:24 pm
But, in 2008-09, corporates got killed while treasuries went up. Exactly why HB chose the treasuries.
Yet the Max drawdown for the two allocations are within 1/2%. Am I missing something?
by Hal
Mon May 16, 2022 11:49 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Random observation
Replies: 2
Views: 98

Random observation

For those with no access to LTT's in their retirement account.
by Hal
Sat May 14, 2022 5:52 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP without cash
Replies: 1
Views: 110

Re: PP without cash

If I were going cashless, personally this would be my approach.
1. 50/50 Stock/Bonds as per Ben Graham
2. Add Gold for minimum volatility as per BelangP

Already had the allocations memorised for the Pacific Peso (AUD) 8)
Edit: Results for USA 24% Gold, 38% TSM, 38% LTT
by Hal
Sat May 14, 2022 7:43 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Desert Looking Glass portfolio?
Replies: 15
Views: 223

Re: The Desert Looking Glass portfolio?

unfortunately the link just takes me to Morningstar's front page? Could you repost it? As for the pension...I won't vest for a couple more years, so I wonder how my psychology will shift once I know that I've got it in the bag. Even though the percentage is small at first just knowing its coming wi...
by Hal
Sat May 14, 2022 2:30 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Desert Looking Glass portfolio?
Replies: 15
Views: 223

Re: The Desert Looking Glass portfolio?

Here's something to think about seeing you will have a government pension. https://socialize.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/asp/FullConv.asp?forumId=F100000015&convId=190913&minReplySeq=41 If you took John Bogles advice, you would have a much higher share (& gold?) allocation than what you would norma...
by Hal
Thu May 12, 2022 3:16 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing advice needed
Replies: 26
Views: 519

Re: Rebalancing advice needed

Don't live in the US, so not familiar with your tax laws.
This may be useful though -> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mmuh1fvHIYg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MhszdAX9Leg
by Hal
Tue May 10, 2022 4:59 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The old Stable Investing website
Replies: 0
Views: 111

The old Stable Investing website

Just re-reading. Posted incase anyone hasn't seen it.

https://web.archive.org/web/20160319123 ... icles.html
by Hal
Tue May 10, 2022 4:42 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP
Replies: 41
Views: 6901

Re: Jeffrey Gundlach on PP

Thanks Mathjak.

Here's the portfolio visualizer on your allocation.
Blue is the Mathjak portfolio, red the PP.

ps: What was your rationale for choosing those assets and percentages?
by Hal
Mon May 09, 2022 11:53 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!
Replies: 63
Views: 3686

Re: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!

Now if only I could find a way to do the same thing for food, our last variable monthly expense! Growing a lot of it myself has been a failure every time I've tried it. What the desert giveth in photons for free energy, she taketh away in dry barren soil. Hi Pointedstick, Try a wicking bed. My brot...
by Hal
Sat May 07, 2022 7:52 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Free book
Replies: 7
Views: 206

Re: Free book

.. Just finished Belanger's, … How did you like it? Does Belanger belong or not on my shelf? O0 Looking forward to Vil's review as well. For my part, I thought the book was good, especially the analysis of the issues. However, for the solution I must disagree somewhat. To base the recommended alloc...
by Hal
Thu May 05, 2022 2:51 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: William Bernstein on Cash holdings (T-Bills)
Replies: 7
Views: 483

Re: William Bernstein on Cash holdings (T-Bills)

You will probably find this five part article interesting then.
https://www.idiosyncraticwhisk.com/search?q=bonds
by Hal
Sun May 01, 2022 6:00 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Overseas Gold? 2022
Replies: 9
Views: 185

Overseas Gold? 2022

> Australia, which thru Covid has shown itself to be authoritarian and insane Not the country of Crocodile Dundees I was told it was. https://texasbulliondepository.gov/ Also consider a rental prop for inflation protection, if you like to stay busy. But your gold will be safe with us.... ::) https:...
by Hal
Fri Apr 29, 2022 9:07 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Overseas Gold? 2022
Replies: 9
Views: 185

Overseas Gold? 2022

In another thread, ( joypog wrote ) On the gold front... moved to this new thread in the Gold § \DS 🚧 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ps: That's why I like the GoldSmith portfolio. Instead of seeing the individual assets classes swing widely, you just see the pr...
by Hal
Fri Apr 29, 2022 8:25 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?
Replies: 34
Views: 1949

Re: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?

Indeed, behavioral risk is my biggest fear with the PP. I'm curious whether my wife and I will have the stomach to handle the upcoming turmoil that the US is heading into (my guess). Psychology is in trying times and I'm not immune. ^^^ Quote of the Week ^^^ and on Bernstein And therein lies the re...
by Hal
Fri Apr 29, 2022 5:32 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?
Replies: 34
Views: 1949

Re: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?

For portfolios with 25% in shares...
PP is blue, 25% Shares 75% 10Y Treasuries red

If you take out the inflationary period of the 70's/early 80's they both track similarly.
Appears the PP is just like a 25/75 portfolio hedged against inflation.

Want super high returns? Try something else.
by Hal
Thu Apr 28, 2022 7:02 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Some edge questions for calculating / thinking about my PP
Replies: 6
Views: 337

Re: Some edge questions for calculating / thinking about my PP

Well, this is what I did years ago. About 1/2 the funds were in a retirement account where you had two choices - actively managed or cash. Went for 50% Cash,25% Shares, 25% Gold. Once I hit 55, could take the funds out and implement a proper PP. Based on Whatcha's comment, how about 25% Shares, 25% ...
by Hal
Wed Apr 27, 2022 8:12 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?
Replies: 34
Views: 1949

Re: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?

I'm just getting into the world of PP. I've held random indexes but we had gone pretty high in cash in part due to the pandemic and in part due to wanting to buy a house until the market skyrocketed beyond our willingness to purchase. I read Craig's book and really loved the concept so we're going ...
by Hal
Sun Apr 24, 2022 10:17 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: YouTube Junkie
Replies: 1162
Views: 336268

Re: YouTube Junkie

by Hal
Thu Apr 21, 2022 8:21 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: BelangP's book out
Replies: 23
Views: 716

Re: BelangP's book out

Similar philosophy....
My notes in blue.
by Hal
Mon Apr 18, 2022 7:22 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: BelangP's book out
Replies: 23
Views: 716

BelangP's book out

by Hal
Mon Apr 18, 2022 2:54 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Inflation - What are you doing different
Replies: 36
Views: 1103

Re: Inflation - What are you doing different

very well thought out!! might use some of the ideas myself After three years STILL have NOT finished my Permanent Portfolio research and implementation. But in this area I am actually getting things done! Vinny, perhaps you should just buy a Vanguard Target Retirement fund that fits your timing/ris...
by Hal
Sat Apr 09, 2022 5:55 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 80
Views: 3474

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

kwg2005 wrote:
Sat Apr 09, 2022 5:09 pm
I am staring to worry about an actual default in the US in the next 10-20 years.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6IRtjJc0miE
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCzu55W ... QIQ/videos
;)
by Hal
Sat Apr 09, 2022 3:57 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 80
Views: 3474

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Holding a Global Aggregate Bond fund (Hedged) due to limited choices. Not worried in the slightest.
https://www.vanguard.com.au/adviser/pro ... s/32101/AU

To be honest, feel safer holding Global Bond & Share ETF's than a purely country specific one (even if the country is the US).....
by Hal
Mon Mar 28, 2022 1:12 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: When does PP inflation protection usually kick in?
Replies: 2
Views: 299

Re: When does PP inflation protection usually kick in?

Here's a starter https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi You may wish to check out John Williams at http://www.shadowstats.com for the non-rigged inflation rate I believe the indicator to watch is the real interest rate. From what I recall, once that goes negative gold tends to incr...