Search found 1235 matches

by Hal
Thu Nov 24, 2022 2:32 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: YouTube Junkie
Replies: 1162
Views: 378083

Re: YouTube Junkie

Something Smithy could try with his dog :D
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6VX1V_96wyk
by Hal
Wed Nov 23, 2022 3:55 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Bond tutorial
Replies: 1
Views: 173

Bond tutorial

by Hal
Sun Nov 13, 2022 1:20 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Bond barbell vs. other options
Replies: 11
Views: 468

Re: Bond barbell vs. other options

IMHO the principles that Browne offered that are not just sound but brilliant are those related to truly diversifying one's assets beyond stocks and bonds, not investing in things one doesn't understand, being conservative with money one can't afford to lose while also having play money and so on. ...
by Hal
Sat Nov 12, 2022 12:25 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Bond barbell vs. other options
Replies: 11
Views: 468

Re: Bond barbell vs. other options

And 2022 has certainly shown - with a vengeance - that those who thought LTT's would zig when equities zagged didn't know their market history. Hi Kevin, Let me pose this question. Do you think the premise the PP was founded on is still valid? That is, LTT's do well in deflation/Gold in Inflation/C...
by Hal
Thu Nov 10, 2022 9:10 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3525
Views: 1167563

Re: The GOLD scream room

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Nov 10, 2022 3:42 pm

Other countries where inflation has weakened their currency are seeing nice gold returns .
Gold has done well versus the "Pacific Peso" :D
by Hal
Thu Nov 10, 2022 4:16 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Optimisation - A waste of time?
Replies: 3
Views: 626

Re: Optimisation - A waste of time?

Kbg wrote:
Fri Oct 14, 2022 8:17 am

My take: useful yes, but not as a means to predict or expect the same outcome in the future.
Just for fun. What a difference a year makes :D
by Hal
Thu Oct 27, 2022 10:38 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Corporate Bonds
Replies: 17
Views: 719

Re: Corporate Bonds

But...the barbell is what I am looking to get to. Have enough "safe" investments, social security, gold, US bonds, etc, to allow decently higher risk on the other end. Here's a starter I did a while back for Australia. Will be interested to see what you decide on. Not many choices down here, so I a...
by Hal
Thu Oct 27, 2022 6:55 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Corporate Bonds
Replies: 17
Views: 719

Re: Corporate Bonds

Would you all agree in terms of risk that corp bonds would fall in the middle here? High Risk to Lower Risk: --Individual common stock --Preferred stock --Stock ETFs/funds --Corp bonds --Muni bonds --CDs/Savings accounts --US Treasuries --Physical gold (not sure it is the lowest risk, just wanted t...
by Hal
Thu Oct 20, 2022 9:00 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: All-weather portfolios - Further resources?
Replies: 22
Views: 1429

Re: All-weather portfolios - Further resources?

My question was simply this -- do the asset allocations of model portfolios adequately account for such a potential risk? Seems to me that those with a significant weighting to gold might, but that traditional stock/bond portfolios do not. FWIW Agree with you and Jack Jones. However your potential ...
by Hal
Thu Oct 20, 2022 12:34 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: All-weather portfolios - Further resources?
Replies: 22
Views: 1429

Re: All-weather portfolios - Further resources?

I've done some reading in my time on passive model portfolios, but in all those books, I honestly don't recall the authors addressing the possibility of sovereign default, with the possible exception of HB. By and large, they seem to take US solvency and credit worthiness as a given, and I don't re...
by Hal
Wed Oct 19, 2022 5:24 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: For BelangP fans
Replies: 1
Views: 228

For BelangP fans

by Hal
Tue Oct 18, 2022 3:43 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5228
Views: 801984

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

This popped up in the YouTube suggestions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dXFroXYBFEQ

Hard to believe less than a year ago there were lockdowns, curfews at night, allowed out for an hour a day etc...
Guess dropping the draconian rules had nothing to do with an election in November ::)
by Hal
Sun Oct 16, 2022 7:45 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Doug Casey's honorable mention of the PP
Replies: 2
Views: 538

Re: Doug Casey's honorable mention of the PP

Nice find. Thanks. Will be listening to whole talk.

PS: Thanks also to KBG on his Optimisation post
by Hal
Fri Oct 14, 2022 4:42 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Optimisation - A waste of time?
Replies: 3
Views: 626

Optimisation - A waste of time?

Just pondering... On reading articles stating that the PP is a "Risk Parity" solution I was wondering if "Optimisation" actually works So attached are two different optimisation approaches. Risk Parity and Minimum Variance. Neither look successful in 2022. And just for a hypothetical, if the availab...
by Hal
Wed Oct 12, 2022 6:46 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 328
Views: 24314

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Things are what they are until they aren’t …when it comes to defensive portfolios I track the pp is the laggard of the lot so far. I only track 3 though .. But I remember the pp being praised for never being down more than 5% in any given year so I have to think 20% is a pretty big shock to those w...
by Hal
Tue Oct 11, 2022 5:20 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Getting Rid Of Stuff -- Mostly Books About Investing
Replies: 1
Views: 171

Re: Getting Rid Of Stuff -- Mostly Books About Investing

:D :D :D

1. Hire room at library etc.

2. Investing Seminar $10 per head. Free book with every ticket

3. Lecture on the GoldSmith portfolio / HB theory / Smith investment fund

4. Leave town
by Hal
Tue Oct 11, 2022 5:12 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Lower Spreads Versus Greater Divisibility: Which Do You Go For?
Replies: 2
Views: 558

Re: Lower Spreads Versus Greater Divisibility: Which Do You Go For?

What kind of gold coins do the forum members buy here? 1 ounce coins? These have low spreads that allow you to have more gold per dollar. On the other hand, you give up divisibility in the case where you actually needed to use them for something. The reverse is obviously true for smaller denominati...
by Hal
Tue Oct 11, 2022 2:09 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 328
Views: 24314

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

The last time we were in this environment, gold responded mightily and more than offset the losses in bonds and the stagnation in stocks. It's not doing the same thing this time so far, and if I had to guess, it probably won't. The dissolution of the gold standard and the subsequent revaluation of ...
by Hal
Sun Oct 09, 2022 3:06 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 328
Views: 24314

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Well I am happy 8)
How's the PP doing in other countries?
by Hal
Wed Oct 05, 2022 4:39 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Do you still use your library?
Replies: 20
Views: 891

Re: Do you still use your library?

Smith1776 wrote:
Wed Oct 05, 2022 4:00 pm
I currently owe my local library 30 dollars, and they won’t let me take out more books until I pay them.

So, no, I don’t use my local library lmao!!!
Why here in Victoria, Australia books are obsolete ;D
https://vimeo.com/313769282
by Hal
Tue Oct 04, 2022 1:22 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Dawg Pound
Replies: 243
Views: 60394

Re: Dawg Pound

Courtesy of Hedgeye 8)
Feel free to add to the collection.
by Hal
Sun Oct 02, 2022 7:37 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 328
Views: 24314

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

From this post and subsequent posts in this topic you seem to be a great believer in the concept of Monte Carlo simulations? If so, how do you react to these Monte Carlo flaws that I just read in a book that I am reading? Capture1.JPGCapture2.JPGCapture3.JPGCapture4.JPGCapture5.JPGCapture6.JPG Than...
by Hal
Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:46 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Year-to-date Returns
Replies: 4
Views: 734

Re: Year-to-date Returns

Thanks Mathjak,

Oh well, got an indexed army pension, so that's my annuity. Don't suggest spending 20 years of your life to get it though...