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by stone
Wed Jan 10, 2018 3:38 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Constant $ withdrawal
Replies: 26
Views: 5113

Re: Constant $ withdrawal

i don't use the pp because as a long term investor , there really was no logic to mitigating temporary short term dips (which are irrelevant as a long term investor ) and permanently reducing my long term gains . I suppose that was sort of the realization I was seeing too. But I was wondering wheth...
by stone
Wed Jan 10, 2018 2:24 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Constant $ withdrawal
Replies: 26
Views: 5113

Re: Constant $ withdrawal

I suppose the crux quandary I was wondering about was whether there is any historical/geographic example where a 25%domesticstocks:25%EM:25%LTT:25%gold portfolio would have run out of money with a constant dollar draw down that a HBPP would have survived? Basically it's whether cash provides more di...
by stone
Tue Jan 09, 2018 4:38 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Constant $ withdrawal
Replies: 26
Views: 5113

Re: Constant $ withdrawal

It is really helpful to have those much older time series as well as the 1970-2017 period. However I guess there is a very big difference between a 60%domestic-stock:40%bond portfolio and a 25%emerging market:25domestic:25%bond:25%gold portfolio. Looking at Tyler's calculators for the 1970-2017 peri...
by stone
Mon Jan 01, 2018 4:25 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Constant $ withdrawal
Replies: 26
Views: 5113

Re: Constant $ withdrawal

6% constant$ withdrawal from "constant$-safe-portfolio" (ie CDSP :) ) http://i64.tinypic.com/287p6h1.jpg 6%constant$ withdrawal from HBPP http://i65.tinypic.com/2yxqkjc.jpg 6%constant$ withdrawal from GoldenButterfly http://i63.tinypic.com/2h5vh1g.jpg CDSP benchmarked against GoldenButterfly http://...
by stone
Mon Jan 01, 2018 3:15 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Constant $ withdrawal
Replies: 26
Views: 5113

Re: Constant $ withdrawal

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by stone
Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:30 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Constant $ withdrawal
Replies: 26
Views: 5113

Re: Constant $ withdrawal

Tyler, your website is a wonder to behold. It is set out so intuitively that even a dunce like me can just start messing around and everything becomes clear :). My impression about safe withdrawal methods and portfolio composition was that the safest withdrawal method would be a composite between th...
by stone
Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:34 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Constant $ withdrawal
Replies: 26
Views: 5113

Re: Constant $ withdrawal

Hi Sophie, Tyler's site is a wonderland of geeky fun :) . My aim wasn't to push withdrawal rates hard but to see what sort of portfolio would give the greatest margin of safety such that a modest withdrawal rate would still be OK even if things ended up generally giving lower returns. I just thought...
by stone
Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:57 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Constant $ withdrawal
Replies: 26
Views: 5113

Constant $ withdrawal

I've discovered Tyler's (from here) fabulous website and have been playing around with his interactive charts. One thing that struck me was that the style of withdrawal seems to have major implications for what's safest as a portfolio composition. If a constant % withdrawal is used (ie 4% of whateve...
by stone
Sun Oct 01, 2017 8:56 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Time to go NAKED 25% Stocks?
Replies: 6
Views: 4173

Re: Time to go NAKED 25% Stocks?

So if I want a loan to buy stocks, where is the money I'm borrowing coming from Are you referring to the general "loans create deposits" process whereby credit money in general is created by bank lending as described in http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/quarterlybulletin/2014/qb...
by stone
Sat May 02, 2015 5:57 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: quote about stock market performance chasing
Replies: 12
Views: 2704

quote about stock market performance chasing

I liked this [url=http://quote%20http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc150427.htm]quote http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc150427.htm[/url]:- Last month, Stan Druckenmiller recounted his own experience with capitulation and performance chasing when he was the lead portfolio manager for George Soros and...
by stone
Tue Apr 28, 2015 1:05 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: A new Portfolio for My Graduating Grad School Students
Replies: 21
Views: 5665

Re: A new Portfolio for My Graduating Grad School Students

I thought this article from GMO gave a clear explanation of the key problem with having a volatile portfolio such as a stock heavy portfolio. The problem would be especially acute if the savers were adding to their savings during the saving period (eg adding a bit every year rather than just holding...
by stone
Tue Apr 14, 2015 3:30 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Bradford synagogue saved by city's muslims
Replies: 3
Views: 1626

Bradford synagogue saved by city's muslims

I thought this was an encouraging story of inter-faith solidarity http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2013/dec/20/bradford-synagogue-saved-muslims-jews A fundraising effort – led by the secretary of a nearby mosque, together with the owner of a popular curry house and a local textile magnate – has se...